Express Entry Draw Predictions And CRS Score Trends For November 2025

Last Updated On 4 November 2025, 9:37 AM EST (Toronto Time)

Uncertainty continues to grow around Canada’s next Express Entry draw as 2025 enters its final stretch, with still no clear sign of adhering to an in-Canada focus.

Despite several large category-based draws in October for French language proficiency, the STEM and Agriculture/Agri-food categories have not been used even once this year.

This absence fuels speculation about IRCC’s direction—especially as Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draws remain limited in size, keeping CRS cut-off scores high, while French language proficiency draws continue to dominate overall invitations.

French draws usually have applicants residing outside Canada, leaving inland workers—those already contributing to the economy—facing longer waits and tougher competition.

With total ITAs in 2025 already nearing the previous year’s levels, we believe IRCC may soon break from its biweekly rhythm to align with the forthcoming Immigration Levels Plan 2026-2028, expected any day now.

As usual, we are back with our analysis and next Express Entry draw predictions and CRS score trends for the month of November 2025.

October 2025 Recap – Complete Timeline of Draws

Date	Category	Invitations Issued	CRS Cut-off
October 1	Canadian Experience Class	1,000	534
October 6	French Language Proficiency	4,500	432
October 14	Provincial Nominee Program	345	778
October 15	Healthcare and Social Services	2,500	472
October 27	Provincial Nominee Program	302	761
October 28	Canadian Experience Class	1,000	533
October 29	French Language Proficiency	6,000	416

October’s flurry of draws created temporary excitement but also amplified unease.

The CRS cut-off for French rounds finally dropped below 420 nearing March 2025 levels, while the CEC category barely moved—only one point lower than earlier in the month.

As of October 29, the total number of invitations in 2025 stands at approximately 81,485, already approaching the 98,903 ITAs issued in all of 2024.

It is not mandatory or implied that IRCC will issue a similar number of ITAs.

And always remember that the number of ITAs is not equal to the number of permanent resident targets set for a particular year.

However, the IRCC uses annual immigration targets as a guide to determine the number of ITAs needed to meet the upcoming year’s targets.

So we are now just 17,418 ITAs short of 2024, and this suggests IRCC may soon pause or slow down draws as they near year-end, particularly with the 2026–2028 plan set to redefine intake ceilings.

November 2025 Forecast—Expected Draw Types and CRS Ranges

Draw Type	Predicted CRS Range	Forecast Highlights
French Language Proficiency	410 – 430	Large invitation numbers keep this range low; another big round could mirror October 29’s 416 cut-off.
Canadian Experience Class (CEC)	528 – 540	CRS remains elevated due to small round sizes; only 2,000 CEC ITAs issued in October.
Healthcare and Social Services	465 – 480	Healthcare demand persists; expect similar outcomes if a draw repeats.
Education Occupations	455 – 470	Following September’s 462, results should remain steady if this category returns.
Trade Occupations	480 – 510	Trades likely near the 500 mark given moderate volumes.
STEM Occupations	500 – 515	No draw held yet in 2025, creating pressure and uncertainty in this group.
Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)	740 – 780	PNP rounds consistently fall in the mid- to high-700s range.

Key Takeaways For Remainder of 2025

1. Missing STEM and Agriculture/Agri-food Draws Raise Uncertainty

It is now November 2025, and IRCC has not held a single STEM or Agriculture/Agri-food draw this year.

This silence conflicts with the early-2025 announcements promising regular rotations across all six category-based streams.

The absence leaves thousands of skilled tech and agri-food professionals waiting, while healthcare, trades, and French categories continue to dominate.

2. IRCC’s Dual Focus: Outland French Candidates and Inland Workers

While French proficiency draws continue to favour linguistic diversity — an important policy goal — many of the French invitations reportedly went to candidates residing abroad, not in Canada.

Meanwhile, CEC draws remain small, signalling a cautious approach toward inland workers.

This contrast highlights IRCC’s balancing act between meeting labour goals and managing population growth under its “stabilization phase.”

3. High CRS Scores Reflect Shrinking Domestic Draw Sizes

The CEC cut-offs at 534 and 533 illustrate a persistent challenge: limited draw sizes are preventing inland workers from seeing relief.

Despite a robust labour market, CRS thresholds remain stubbornly high.

Without larger invitation rounds, candidates with scores in the 520s and 530s will continue to wait while lower-scoring profiles in French or targeted sectors move ahead.

4. Potential Break in Bi-Weekly Draw Schedule

Given that IRCC’s total ITAs for 2025 are already close to last year’s total and IRCC already has over 900,000 overall permanent residency applications to easily meet annual targets for 2026 and 2027, experts expect fewer or irregular draws in November.

While IRCC rarely pauses entirely, there is precedent for reduced cadence when the department nears its quota.

A short slowdown could align with the release of the Immigration Levels Plan 2026-2028, which will set future quotas and program distribution.

CRS Score Distribution in the Pool After the October 28 Draw

CRS Score Range	Number of Candidates
501 – 600	25,001
451 – 500	69,503
491 – 500	12,051
481 – 490	12,092
471 – 480	14,727
461 – 470	15,792
451 – 460	14,841
401 – 450	72,542
441 – 450	14,089
431 – 440	14,766
421 – 430	14,998
411 – 420	14,820
401 – 410	13,869
351 – 400	52,468
301 – 350	19,410
0 – 300	8,027
Total	246,951

Analysis

This distribution reveals a massive buildup of profiles between CRS 400–500, particularly among inland workers and recent graduates.

For candidates in this range, waiting for a general CEC draw is no longer a viable strategy.

With IRCC prioritizing category-based selection, they should:

Develop French language ability to qualify for French-category draws.
Align work experience with active categories such as healthcare, trades, or education.
Explore Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) for a potential 600-point boost.

The concentration of 142,000+ profiles between 401–500 CRS means competition is steep — and the only real differentiator is now category eligibility or provincial nomination.

What the Numbers Suggest for November Express Entry Draws?

French Category Will Continue Leading Invitations
Expect another large French draw with 5,000–6,000 ITAs. The CRS could again dip near 415 as IRCC balances French-language targets with overall ITA limits.
CEC Likely Limited to 1,000–1,500 ITAs Per Round
The CRS may remain stuck between 528–540 unless the invitation count rises substantially.
Healthcare May Reappear Mid-Month
A healthcare draw could bring another 2,000–2,500 invitations, keeping CRS around 470.
Education and Trades Remain Strong Contenders
Based on September’s comeback, both may reappear with CRS near 460 and 505 respectively.
PNP Rounds Continue, But With Modest Impact
PNP rounds remain small (300–400 ITAs), used mainly for backlog management.
STEM and Agriculture May Still Emerge Before Year-End
With rising criticism from employer groups, a late-year STEM draw could surface in December if IRCC wants to meet its innovation-sector commitments.

IRCC’s Balancing Act

IRCC appears torn between three objectives:

Reducing temporary resident volumes by transitioning them to permanent residency.
Maintaining French-language growth at 8.5% of annual immigration targets for 2025, 9.5% for 2026, and 10.5% for 2027.
Supporting essential sectors like healthcare, education, and trades.

This balancing act is why CEC rounds — though politically popular — remain tightly controlled.

The department seems intent on limiting new permanent residents from within Canada until the temporary-resident cap stabilizes.

However, this restraint may not last long. Once the new Immigration Levels Plan 2026-2028 is announced, IRCC could adjust its draw mix to reflect updated quotas.

Recommendations for Candidates

For CEC and Inland Workers

Maximize CRS through education or language upgrades (IELTS/TEF).
Consider switching to categories like trades or education if eligible.
Secure a job offer in a priority occupation to strengthen PNP nomination potential.

For French Language Candidates

Continue retaking TEF/TCF to reach CLB 9 or higher.
Monitor both federal and provincial francophone draws for quicker pathways.

For STEM and Agri-Food Workers

Stay prepared with updated reference letters, NOC alignment, and documentation.
IRCC may release a long-delayed round soon to balance category representation.

For All Candidates Scoring 400–500 CRS

Prioritize finding an active draw category or a provincial nomination.
Passive waiting could mean months — even years — of stagnation in the pool.

What’s Next

All eyes are now on IRCC’s Immigration Levels Plan 2026–2028, which could be tabled any day now.

This plan will determine:

Annual PR admissions for the next three years
Category allocations and draw frequency
The balance between in-Canada and overseas selections

Given the buildup of candidates and nearing 2024 ITAs, IRCC may use November/December to pause and recalibrate rather than hold multiple rounds.

A quiet period this month or next month would not be surprising—and could even signal a larger policy shift once the new plan is unveiled.

While Express Entry remains Canada’s flagship skilled immigration system, 2025 is shaping up to be a transitional year defined by targeted selection and cautious intake.

The message from IRCC is subtle but clear—points alone are no longer enough.

To stay competitive, candidates must align their profiles with the country’s evolving priorities, whether through language, occupation, or provincial alignment.

The coming weeks will reveal not only the next round of invitations but also the direction of Canada’s immigration future as the 2026–2028 plan is finalized.

Next Express Entry Draw Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

When can I expect the next Express Entry draw?

Based on IRCC’s biweekly schedule, the next Express Entry draw is expected between November 10 and 12, 2025. Candidates should stay alert during the second week of November.

Is the CRS score expected to drop in 2025?

The overall CRS cutoffs are unlikely to drop significantly in the short term. While French language and targeted category draws (such as healthcare or education) may see lower CRS scores around the 410–470 range, Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draws continue to hover above 530 due to smaller invitation numbers. Unless IRCC increases the number of invitations per draw, high CRS scores are expected to persist through the end of 2025.

Can I get permanent residency with a 470 CRS score?

A CRS score of 470 can still be competitive if you qualify for a category-based draw such as healthcare, education, or French language proficiency. However, for CEC-specific rounds, 470 remains below recent cutoffs. Candidates in this range are encouraged to strengthen their profiles by improving language scores, gaining provincial nominations, or aligning their occupations with high-demand categories to enhance their chances.

Is 450 points enough for Canada PR?

At present, 450 CRS points are not sufficient to receive an invitation under most Express Entry categories. The majority of recent cutoffs have stayed above 500 for general and CEC rounds. However, candidates with 450 points can focus on alternative pathways—including category-based draws, provincial nominee programs, or improving their language test results—to push their CRS into a more competitive range.

How often are Express Entry draws held?

IRCC typically holds Express Entry draws every two weeks, though frequency can vary depending on program targets and processing capacity. In 2025, IRCC has maintained a mostly biweekly schedule but occasionally held back-to-back or triple rounds within a single week. With overall ITA counts nearing last year’s total, experts anticipate that draw timing may become irregular until the new Immigration Levels Plan provides updated direction.

Satinder Bains

Satinder brings expertise, knowledge, and experience related to internal work flows at IRCC. She worked at Canadian Consulate in Chandigarh before moving to Canada. Her articles on “Chinook – An internal IRCC tool used to bulk process temporary applications” was one of the notable work on our news website