Breaking Down Canada’s Upcoming Immigration Levels Plan 2026-2028

Last Updated On 27 October 2025, 10:44 AM EDT (Toronto Time)

Canada’s immigration levels plan is the federal government’s roadmap for how many permanent residents (PRs) and, more recently, temporary residents (TRs) will be admitted each year.

The plan covers three years and is tabled every fall, typically before November 1. The next update—covering 2026 to 2028—is expected within days.

It will outline how many newcomers Canada plans to welcome, which immigration categories will grow or contract, and how these decisions align with housing, labour, and population goals.

This plan matters because every immigration stream—Express Entry, Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs), work permits, and study visas—flows from these annual targets.

The government’s numbers drive real changes in processing, draws, and approvals.

TLDR (Too Long; Didn’t Read)

Canada’s last plan for 2025–2027 reduced permanent resident targets and introduced the country’s first-ever temporary resident arrival targets.
The government committed to bringing the temporary resident share down to 5 percent of the total population by the end of 2026.
Temporary arrivals were projected at 673,650 in 2025, 516,600 in 2026, and 543,600 in 2027, with a 437,000 study permit approval cap.
Public consultations in July–August 2025 gathered feedback on category-based Express Entry, temporary volumes, and Francophone priorities.
The upcoming 2026–2028 plan will likely tighten temporary resident intake further, prioritize in-Canada transitions, and strengthen regional programs.
This guide explores three realistic future scenarios, program impacts, and preparation strategies for applicants, employers, and provinces.

What the 2025–2027 Plan Changed and Why It Still Matters

The 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan, released last October, marked a turning point. Canada shifted from record growth to strategic restraint.

The plan focused on stabilizing population pressures, addressing housing constraints, and balancing economic needs with public services.

Key changes:

Permanent residents: 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026, and 365,000 in 2027.
Economic class share: Rising toward 62 percent by 2027, emphasizing in-Canada applicants.
Temporary residents: New arrival targets introduced—673,650 in 2025, 516,600 in 2026, and 543,600 in 2027.
Study permits: A national cap of 437,000 approvals for 2025, with provincial allocations and reduced numbers from 2024.
Work permits: Employers limited to 10 percent of their workforce for low-wage foreign workers; wage standards tightened for high-wage roles.
Program integrity: Stricter rules for Post-Graduation Work Permits (PGWPs) and Spousal Open Work Permits (SOWPs).
Francophone immigration: Non-Quebec targets increased from 8.5 percent in 2025 to 10 percent by 2027.

These measures were designed to rebalance the system—reducing short-term strain while maintaining long-term population growth and economic vitality.

The 2026–2028 plan is expected to follow this trajectory, possibly with refined targets and sharper enforcement.

What IRCC Consulted on in Summer 2025

Between July and August 2025, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) invited Canadians, provinces, employers, and immigration stakeholders to share feedback on future priorities.

These consultations form the backbone of the upcoming plan.

The survey asked the public to respond to specific proposed targets for both PRs and TRs, asking whether they were “too many, too few, or about right.”

This approach signalled the government’s intent to fine-tune rather than overhaul.

The consultation focused on:

The ideal balance between economic, family, and humanitarian immigration.
How many newcomers should come from within Canada versus overseas.
How to sustainably manage temporary resident numbers.
Which sectors (health, trades, tech, French-language) should be prioritized under category-based Express Entry.
How to grow Francophone immigration outside Quebec.
Strategies to address fraud, abuse, and temporary overstays.

The feedback reflected a broad consensus: Canada must maintain openness to talent while ensuring the system remains sustainable and predictable.

Three Plausible Scenarios for 2026–2028

Scenario A: Stabilize and Refine

Permanent residents remain around 365,000–380,000 annually.
Temporary residents stay near current controlled levels, which is unlikely, as Mark Carney already indicated that there might be further reduction on the cards.
Express Entry continues focusing on healthcare, trades, and French-language skills.
In-Canada transitions remain the main path to PR.

Impact: Predictable processing, moderate CRS cut-offs, and ongoing preference for candidates already in Canada or with work experience in key sectors.

Scenario B: Moderate Expansion with Guardrails

PR targets inch up to around 400,000 by 2028 if housing and services improve.
TR inflows remain capped, especially for students and low-wage workers.
Express Entry expands category-based draws for health, construction, and tech.

Impact: Overseas candidates in priority occupations gain more access, but general applicants face stiff competition unless aligned with specific provincial or federal categories.

Scenario C: Regional Rebalancing and Francophone Growth

PR totals remain stable but more seats shift to PNPs and regional pilots, most likely.
Francophone and rural immigration targets increase.
Study and work permit allocation tied to regional labour shortages.

Impact: Applicants targeting smaller cities, Francophone communities, or rural regions may enjoy faster processing and better chances of nomination.

Program-by-Program Outlook

Express Entry

Category-based draws are now a permanent feature. Health care, trades, education, and French-language proficiency are likely to remain top priorities.

Expect an increase in preference for Canadian Experience Class (CEC) profiles and in-Canada work experience.

Applicant takeaway:

Update your profile regularly, target NOCs under priority categories, improve French or English test scores, and watch draw trends closely.

Candidates with Canadian experience or provincial support remain top-tier.

Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs)

Provinces will play an even larger role. PNP allocations could rise moderately, but streams will increasingly align with economic and demographic needs—especially health care, trades, and rural retention.

Applicant takeaway:

Monitor each province’s occupation lists, apply proactively, and consider smaller communities with higher retention incentives.

International Students

Study permit approvals are unlikely to return to pre-2024 highs soon. The 2025 cap of 437,000 is expected to stay, perhaps with a slight adjustment.

Provinces now receive specific allocations tied to housing and labour capacity.

Student takeaway:

Choose programs that are clearly PGWP-eligible and linked to priority sectors such as health, skilled trades, and technology.

Avoid private colleges not recognized under designated institutions.

Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP)

Employers face strict compliance rules, including a 10 percent low-wage cap.

The system favours high-wage and specialized roles, particularly those that support essential industries, but we can expect further reduction to annual targets.

Employer takeaway:

Build long-term retention through training and transition-to-PR options.

Partner with provincial governments and use the International Mobility Program (IMP) where applicable.

Asylum and Humanitarian Pathways

Canada will maintain strong humanitarian commitments but streamline asylum claims to prevent backlogs.

Expect new measures improving claim processing and enforcement against abuse, such as those mentioned in Bill C-12.

Regional and Public-Service Impacts

Immigration policy now explicitly links with housing, healthcare, and infrastructure capacity.

The goal is “sustainable growth”—moderate, predictable inflows that provinces can plan for.

Housing:

Controlled temporary resident numbers are expected to continue to ease pressure on rental demand and supply shortages.

Some urban centres may see stabilization by late 2026.

Healthcare and trades:

Ongoing labour shortages in nursing, construction, and mechanical trades drive Canada’s skill-based approach.

The next plan will expand these sectors’ prominence in PR admissions.

Francophone growth

Ottawa’s target to hit 10 percent Francophone immigration outside Quebec by 2027 will likely rise modestly again through 2028.

Rural and regional development

Expect higher allocations for Atlantic Canada, Northern Ontario, and the Prairies to encourage settlement beyond Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal.

Key Indicators To Watch When the Plan Is Announced

Permanent resident totals for 2026, 2027, and 2028.
Economic-class share of overall PRs.
Updated caps on study and work permits.
Temporary residents share goals relative to population.
Express Entry categories and CRS trends.
Francophone immigration targets.
Program integrity measures for PGWP and SOWP.
Adjustments to asylum and family reunification pathways.

Outlook for 2026–2028: What Lies Ahead

The upcoming plan is not about contraction—it’s about consolidation.

Canada is moving from quantity to quality, refining pathways that bring the right people to the right places with sustainable outcomes.

Applicants who prepare intelligently—by matching skills to demand, learning French, and staying compliant—will continue to find success.

Employers who invest in retention and pathways will secure long-term workforce stability.

Provinces that plan housing and job programs together will be best positioned to benefit.

In short, the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan will be defined by discipline, balance, and precision—hallmarks of a maturing immigration system built for sustainability and national growth.

As Canada prepares to release its most consequential immigration roadmap in years, both hope and caution fill the air.

For those who act early, align with policy priorities, and think strategically, this next phase could open new doors to permanent opportunity—just under clearer, more deliberate rules.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

When will Canada release the Immigration Levels Plan 2026–2028?

The plan is expected by November 1, 2025, continuing Canada’s annual schedule of multi-year immigration targets.

What are the main priorities likely to remain unchanged?

Health, trades, and French-language categories under Express Entry are expected to stay dominant. Canada will also continue emphasizing in-Canada transitions and integrity controls.

Will permanent resident targets increase again?

Significant increases are unlikely until housing and service capacity catch up. Modest adjustments could occur in 2028 depending on provincial readiness.

Will the study permit cap be lifted?

No major rise is expected for 2026. Allocations will remain province-specific and tied to available housing and verified educational institutions.

Are there opportunities for temporary residents to become permanent?

Yes, but mainly for those in priority occupations or with Canadian experience. Temporary residents aligned with labour-market needs will continue receiving transition pathways.

How will smaller provinces benefit?

Expect higher PNP quotas and stronger regional incentives. Areas facing depopulation will likely receive targeted support to attract and retain newcomers.

What about family sponsorship and refugees?

These streams will likely remain steady. The emphasis continues to be on balance—economic growth alongside humanitarian and family commitments.

Satinder Bains

Satinder brings expertise, knowledge, and experience related to internal work flows at IRCC. She worked at Canadian Consulate in Chandigarh before moving to Canada. Her articles on “Chinook – An internal IRCC tool used to bulk process temporary applications” was one of the notable work on our news website