Canada’s mortgage rates are climbing again in October 2026 after all 6 of the country’s largest banks raised select fixed rates since early September.
CIBC raised several fixed mortgage rates on October 9, joining BMO, which increased its 3-year and 5-year fixed rates on October 7.
These latest moves extend a broader round of rate increases that began in September when RBC, Scotiabank, National Bank, TD, and CIBC all raised select fixed mortgage rates across multiple terms.
The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield, a key benchmark behind fixed mortgage pricing, reached a 52-week high near 3.73% on September 28 before easing to approximately 3.56% by October 9, according to data compiled by nesto and Canadian Mortgage Trends.
With approximately 1.15 million Canadian mortgages set to renew in 2026 and another 940,000 in 2027, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, these increases are arriving at a particularly sensitive time for households across the country.
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How Much Did Banks Raise Fixed Mortgages?
Since early September, every Big 6 bank has raised at least some of its advertised fixed mortgage rates.
CIBC increased its 1-year through 4-year fixed rates by 15 basis points and its 5-year fixed rates by 20 basis points on October 9, according to Canadian Mortgage Trends.
BMO raised its 3-year fixed rate by 20 basis points to 4.94% and its standard 5-year fixed rate by 20 basis points to 5.14% on October 7, according to Canadian Mortgage Trends.
BMO’s high-ratio 5-year fixed rate rose 15 basis points to 4.99%, while its uninsured hybrid rate increased 10 basis points to 4.62%.
Scotiabank raised its advertised 2-year fixed rate by 15 basis points to 5.14% during the same week.
RBC increased rates across its 1-year through 5-year fixed terms by 10 to 20 basis points in early October, while also reducing discounts on new 5-year variable mortgages.
CIBC and TD had already raised select 3-year and 5-year fixed rates by 20 basis points on September 29, following earlier moves by BMO, National Bank, RBC and Scotiabank throughout September.
Among the Big Six, some of the largest cumulative moves since early September have been at TD and RBC, where several terms rose by 40 to 50 basis points.
CIBC’s rates are generally about 20 basis points higher than competitors, while increases at BMO, National Bank and Scotiabank have mostly ranged from 10 to 30 basis points, according to Canadian Mortgage Trends.
October 2026 Fixed Mortgage Rate Changes At Major Banks
| Bank | Terms Affected | Increase (bps) | Timing |
| CIBC | 1- through 5-year fixed | 15–20 | October 9 |
| BMO | 3-year, 5-year, hybrid | 10–20 | October 7 |
| RBC | 1-year through 5-year fixed | 10–20 | Early October |
| Scotiabank | 2-year fixed | 15 | Early October |
| TD | 3-year and 5-year fixed | ~20 | September 29 |
| National Bank | Select fixed terms | 10–30 | September |
Why Fixed Mortgage Rates Are Rising In October 2026
Fixed mortgage rates do not follow the Bank of Canada’s policy rate directly.
They track Government of Canada bond yields, particularly the 5-year bond yield, which reflects what investors expect from inflation, economic growth and global financial conditions over the coming years.
The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield hit a 52-week high of 3.729% on September 28, eased to about 3.68% the following day and continued declining to approximately 3.56% by October 9.
A global bond selloff driven by energy-price inflation concerns and heavy government borrowing across major economies has lifted yields internationally, and Canadian yields have followed.
Foreign investors purchased a record $80.8 billion of Canadian government bonds in the second quarter of 2026, according to Statistics Canada, illustrating the scale of global demand that directly influences fixed mortgage pricing because lenders use those bonds as their benchmark.
The key takeaway is that fixed mortgage rates can rise independently of the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate, which has remained at 2.25% since October 2025.
The Bank held its policy rate steady at its September 2 announcement for a seventh consecutive time, yet fixed rates have moved higher in the weeks since.
Where The Lowest Fixed Mortgage Rates Stand Right Now
As of October 9, 2026, the lowest available insured 5-year fixed mortgage rate through brokers sits at approximately 4.34%, according to Ratehub.
The lowest 5-year variable rate available is 3.40%, leaving a spread of roughly 0.94 percentage points between fixed and variable options.
The 3-year fixed rate remains the most competitively priced term among lenders, sitting near 4.29% at brokerages, according to WOWA.
Bank-advertised special rates are higher than broker-channel rates, and homebuyers who approach banks directly may see 5-year fixed rates closer to 4.79% to 5.14% depending on the lender.
| Mortgage Type | Lowest Rate (Oct 9) | Source |
| 5-year fixed (insured, broker) | ~4.34% | Ratehub |
| 3-year fixed (broker) | ~4.29% | WOWA |
| 5-year fixed (bank special) | 4.79%–5.14% | Bank websites |
| 5-year variable (lowest) | ~3.40% | Ratehub |
| 1-year fixed (lowest) | ~4.94% | WOWA |
How Much More You Would Pay On A New Fixed Mortgage
A 20-basis-point increase may not sound dramatic, but it adds up over the life of a mortgage.
The following table shows how monthly payments change on a 5-year fixed mortgage with a 25-year amortization when the rate rises by 0.20 percentage points.
| Mortgage Amount | At 4.80% | At 5.00% | Monthly Increase | Extra Over 5 Years |
| $300,000 | $1,711 | $1,745 | +$34 | +$2,040 |
| $500,000 | $2,851 | $2,908 | +$57 | +$3,400 |
| $700,000 | $3,992 | $4,071 | +$79 | +$4,760 |
Figures are approximate and assume monthly payment frequency with a 25-year amortization. Individual rates vary by lender, credit profile and down payment.
For households renewing in 2026 who originally locked in at pandemic-era rates near 2% to 3%, the payment shock is substantially larger.
Bank of Canada staff predicted in a July 2025 analysis that borrowers with a 5-year fixed mortgage renewing in 2025 or 2026 could see their payments rise an average of 15% to 20% compared with December 2024.
What This Means For Canadians Renewing Or Buying A Home Now
CMHC projects approximately 1.15 million mortgages will renew in 2026 and another 940,000 in 2027.
Many of those borrowers were locked in when rates were near record lows in 2020 and 2021 and are now facing significantly higher renewal rates.
Approximately 75% of borrowers facing a payment increase hold 5-year fixed-rate mortgages, according to the Bank of Canada.
If you do not actively negotiate or shop around before your renewal date, your mortgage may renew automatically at your lender’s posted rate, which is typically much higher than the discounted rate you could secure by comparing offers.
First-time homebuyers navigating the Canadian housing market face additional headwinds because rising fixed rates increase the stress test qualifying rate, which reduces the maximum mortgage amount you can borrow.
When fixed rates climb, lenders must qualify borrowers at the higher of their contract rate plus 2% or the minimum stress test floor of 5.25%, whichever is greater.
Newcomers to Canada who are looking to purchase their first home should understand that these rate movements directly affect how much house they can afford, regardless of the benefit payments and government supports available to them.
Fixed Versus Variable Mortgage Rate Outlook
The gap between fixed and variable rates has widened in October 2026 as fixed rates climbed, though some advertised variable rates have also begun moving, with CIBC increasing its 3-year and 5-year variable rates by 10 basis points on October 9.
Variable rates are tied to the prime rate, which moves with the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate.
The prime rate at the Big Six banks has sat at 4.45% since October 2025, and the Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold at 2.25% at its October 28 announcement.
Clinton Wilkins of the Clinton Wilkins Mortgage Team noted that borrowers are increasingly shifting toward variable-rate products, with some offers more than a full percentage point below comparable fixed rates.
However, variable rates carry their own risk.
Money markets are pricing roughly 100 basis points of Bank of Canada increases over the next 12 months, and as of October 1, traders priced about a 1-in-3 chance of a quarter-point hike at the October 28 meeting.
Scotiabank is forecasting the policy rate to rise to 2.50% by the end of 2026, while National Bank expects the rate to hold at 2.25% through 2026 before rising to 2.75% by the end of 2027.
Ron Butler of Butler Mortgage said the chance of a Bank of Canada rate increase on either October 28 or December 9 is significant and predicted that bank 5-year fixed rates beginning with five could appear within six to eight weeks.
Canadians evaluating the cost of living in their province should factor in these potential variable-rate increases when choosing a mortgage type.
Will Morgage Rates Continue to Rise Further In October 2026?
Two key dates will shape the direction of fixed and variable mortgage rates over the coming weeks.
Statistics Canada releases the September Consumer Price Index on October 19, and this inflation reading is widely considered the next catalyst for rate movements.
August headline inflation ran at 3%, already at the upper boundary of the Bank of Canada’s target range.
If September inflation comes in higher, bond yields could push further upward, leading to additional fixed rate increases from lenders.
The Bank of Canada’s next rate announcement on October 28 will determine whether variable rates stay put or begin climbing.
Several major bank economists expect the first policy rate increase in 2027, but Scotiabank projects a move as early as the fourth quarter of 2026.
Bond yields can also fall as quickly as they rise, and a resolution to global energy supply disruptions could ease inflation expectations and bring fixed rates back down.
As imported pressure from United States bond markets remains the main upward risk to Canadian fixed rates, broader economic developments on both sides of the border will continue to influence the path ahead.
What Major Bank Economists Predict For Rate Movements
| Bank | Policy Rate End 2026 | Policy Rate End 2027 |
| RBC Economics | 2.25% (hold) | 3.25% |
| TD Economics | 2.25% (hold) | 2.25% (hold) |
| Scotiabank Economics | 2.50% | 3.00% |
| BMO Capital Markets | 2.25% (hold) | 2.25% (hold) |
| CIBC Capital Markets | 2.25% (hold) | 2.75% |
| National Bank | 2.25% (hold) | 2.75% |
The common thread across these forecasts is that virtually no major bank is predicting rate cuts.
Among Canada’s financial institutions, the split is between those forecasting rate increases in 2026 or 2027 and those expecting the policy rate to remain unchanged through the end of 2027.
Steps Canadian Borrowers Can Take Right Now
Start comparing renewal offers at least 120 to 180 days before your mortgage maturity date.
Obtain rate quotes from your existing lender, at least two competing banks and an independent mortgage broker.
Ask about rate-hold options, which typically lock in a quoted rate for 90 to 120 days.
Run your numbers at today’s rate and at a rate 0.50 to 1.00 percentage points higher to stress-test your household budget.
Consider accelerated biweekly payments if your lender offers them, which can shave interest costs over the full amortization.
Households relying on government income supports such as OAS payments or CPP payments should budget conservatively when factoring renewal costs into their monthly cash flow.
Ontario residents receiving Ontario Trillium Benefit payments or the Canada Child Benefit should keep in mind that these supports are based on prior-year income and will not automatically adjust to offset higher mortgage costs.
All Big Six Canadian banks have now raised select fixed mortgage rates since early September, moving in the same direction within weeks of each other.
The forces behind these increases — elevated Government of Canada bond yields, persistent energy-driven inflation and growing expectations that the Bank of Canada will eventually raise its policy rate — are not expected to reverse quickly.
For the approximately 1.15 million mortgages renewing this year and for buyers entering the housing market right now, the most consequential financial decision of the fall may be how proactively they shop for their next rate.
The October 19 inflation report and the October 28 Bank of Canada rate announcement will provide the next concrete signals on whether fixed rates continue climbing, stabilize or begin to pull back.
Immigration News Canada will continue to monitor and report on developments affecting Canadian household costs as new data becomes available.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Can the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision actually lower fixed mortgage rates?
Not directly, the Bank of Canada’s policy rate controls variable mortgage rates through the prime rate, but fixed rates are driven by Government of Canada bond yields. Even if the Bank holds at 2.25% on October 28, fixed rates can keep rising if bond yields stay elevated. A dovish tone from the Bank could ease bond yields slightly, but a hawkish signal about future hikes would likely push them higher.
Should I lock in a fixed rate now or wait for rates to drop?
No major Canadian bank economist is currently forecasting rate cuts in the near term. If your renewal is approaching and you want payment certainty, locking in at today’s rate with a 90-to-120-day rate hold protects you from further increases while preserving the option to take a lower rate if one materializes before closing. Waiting carries the risk that bond yields climb further and push fixed rates higher before your renewal date.
How do newcomers to Canada qualify for competitive fixed mortgage rates?
Major lenders including CIBC, RBC and TD offer newcomer mortgage programs for eligible permanent and non-permanent residents, with eligibility periods varying by lender and immigration status. CMHC provides mortgage loan insurance through its Newcomers program, and qualifying borrowers can purchase with as little as 5% down. Building Canadian credit history, maintaining stable employment and working with a mortgage broker who has access to multiple lenders will help secure the most competitive rate available.
Why did my fixed mortgage rate change when the Bank of Canada held rates steady?
Fixed mortgage rates are set by lenders based on their cost of funding, which is pegged to Government of Canada bond yields. Bond yields react to economic data, global inflation expectations and international capital flows in real time, independently of the Bank of Canada’s eight scheduled rate decisions per year. Since September 2026, rising global bond yields — driven largely by energy-price inflation and imported pressure from U.S. Treasury markets — have pushed Canadian fixed mortgage rates higher while the Bank’s policy rate stayed unchanged at 2.25%.
Are 3-year fixed mortgage rates a better deal than 5-year fixed rates right now?
The 3-year fixed rate has been the most competitively priced term throughout 2025 and 2026, with broker rates near 4.29% compared to 4.34% for the 5-year fixed, according to WOWA. A 3-year term makes sense if you believe rates could be lower at renewal in 2029, but it also means you will face another renewal decision sooner, and there is no guarantee that rates will have dropped by then. The 5-year fixed term provides a longer window of payment certainty, which may be more valuable for households with tight monthly budgets.
Fact-Checked: All fixed mortgage rate changes, bond yield data, bank rate forecasts and CMHC renewal projections cited in this article were verified against reports from Canadian Mortgage Trends, Ratehub, nesto and WOWA as published in their October 2026 updates.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Canadians considering a new mortgage or renewal should consult a licensed mortgage broker or financial advisor and review current rates on the Bank of Canada’s posted rates page before making any decisions.
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