Last Updated On 31 July 2026, 5:25 PM EDT (Toronto Time)
The Bank of Canada published its official 2027 schedule for policy interest rate announcements on July 27, 2026, confirming eight decision dates spread across the calendar year.
It is important for newcomers, prospective immigrants, and established Canadians to understand how the Bank of Canada’s rate decisions directly affect mortgage payments, borrowing costs, savings returns, and the broader economic environment that shapes job markets and housing affordability across every province.
The schedule arrives at a pivotal moment for monetary policy, with the overnight rate sitting at 2.25% after six consecutive holds and a growing consensus among economists that the Bank’s next move will be a hike rather than a cut.
Governor Tiff Macklem held the rate steady on July 15, 2026, noting that Canada’s economy is showing signs of improvement after stalling for much of the past year and that inflation is projected to ease to the 2% target by early 2027.
The Bank cut rates nine times between June 2024 and October 2025, bringing the overnight rate from a peak of 5.00% down to 2.25%, one of the most aggressive easing cycles among G10 economies.
With the cutting cycle now appearing to be over, the central question for 2027 is when and how fast the Bank will begin raising rates back toward the middle of its estimated neutral range of 2.25% to 3.25%.
This guide covers the complete 2027 announcement schedule, the remaining 2026 dates, the economic context behind the current hold, what major Canadian bank economists are forecasting for 2027, and a decision-by-decision rate outlook for the year ahead.
Table of Contents
Complete 2027 Rate Announcement Schedule
The Bank of Canada confirmed the following eight fixed announcement dates for 2027, all at 9:45 AM Eastern Time.
Four of the eight decisions are accompanied by the quarterly Monetary Policy Report, which contains the Bank’s updated economic forecasts and provides a press conference with the Governor and Senior Deputy Governor.
| Date | Day | Monetary Policy Report | Surveys released before decision |
| January 27, 2027 | Wednesday | Yes | BOS and CSCE (January 18) |
| March 3, 2027 | Wednesday | No | — |
| April 28, 2027 | Wednesday | Yes | BOS and CSCE (April 19) |
| June 2, 2027 | Wednesday | No | — |
| July 21, 2027 | Wednesday | Yes | BOS and CSCE (July 12) |
| September 8, 2027 | Wednesday | No | — |
| October 27, 2027 | Wednesday | Yes | BOS and CSCE (October 18) |
| December 8, 2027 | Wednesday | No | — |
MPR dates are the most consequential because they provide the Bank’s full economic projections and allow the governing council to frame any rate change within a detailed analytical narrative, making rate changes more likely at MPR meetings than at interim decisions.
Remaining 2026 Rate Announcement Dates
The Bank also reconfirmed the three remaining 2026 announcement dates, all of which will influence the starting point for 2027.
| Date | Day | Monetary Policy Report |
| September 2, 2026 | Wednesday | No |
| October 28, 2026 | Wednesday | Yes |
| December 9, 2026 | Wednesday | No |
Bond markets currently price a high probability of no change on September 2, with swap markets assigning approximately 50% odds of a 25-basis-point hike by the October 28 MPR decision.
If the Bank hikes in late 2026, the starting rate for 2027 would be 2.50% rather than 2.25%, which would shift every subsequent prediction in this outlook.
Where The Economy Stands Entering 2027
The July 2026 Monetary Policy Report provides the most current snapshot of where the Bank sees the economy heading.
Canada’s GDP growth stalled through much of 2025 and early 2026 as the economy adjusted to new US tariffs, high uncertainty, and slower population growth driven by reduced immigration targets.
Growth resumed in the second quarter of 2026, with the Bank estimating annualized Q2 GDP at 2.5%, and the sources of expansion are broadening beyond the oil and gas sector.
The Bank projects full-year GDP growth of 0.7% in 2026, rising to 1.8% in both 2027 and 2028.
The unemployment rate was 6.5% in June 2026 and has hovered in a range of 6.5% to 7.0% since late 2024, reflecting ongoing economic slack in the labour market.
Headline CPI inflation hit 3.2% in May 2026, driven almost entirely by gasoline prices linked to the Middle East conflict, before easing to 2.8% in June as a temporary ceasefire brought pump prices down.
Core inflation measures tracked by the Bank of Canada, including the median and trimmed-mean CPI, averaged 1.9% in June 2026, their lowest levels in over five years.
The Bank projects inflation will ease to approximately 2.5% in the second half of 2026 and return to the 2% target by early 2027, assuming oil prices settle between US$70 and US$75 per barrel by mid-2027.
At 2.25%, the overnight rate currently sits at the lower end of the Bank’s estimated neutral range of 2.25% to 3.25%, which is the range where monetary policy neither stimulates nor restrains the economy.
What Major Bank Economists Are Forecasting
The direction of the next rate move is no longer in serious dispute among Canada’s major financial institutions, with most forecasting gradual hikes toward the neutral rate beginning in 2027.
The disagreement is about timing and magnitude.
| Institution | 2027 rate path forecast | Year-end 2027 rate |
| National Bank | Hike to 2.50% in Q1, 2.75% in Q2, hold through year-end | 2.75% |
| CIBC Economics | Hold through H1, hike to 2.50% mid-year, 2.75% by year-end | 2.75% |
| RBC Economics | Hold through 2026, hike modestly in 2027 | 2.50%–2.75% |
| Desjardins | Begin hiking to 2.75% in 2027 if base case holds | 2.75% |
| Scotiabank | Hikes could begin late 2026, reach 3.00% by end of 2027 | 3.00% |
| TD Economics | Hold at 2.25% through 2027 and beyond | 2.25% |
| Parliamentary Budget Officer | 2.50% by mid-2027, 2.75% by year-end | 2.75% |
The consensus clusters around a year-end 2027 rate of 2.75%, which sits at the midpoint of the neutral range.
TD Economics is the notable outlier, forecasting an extended hold based on its view that trade uncertainty and weak productivity will keep the Bank from raising rates.
Scotiabank sits on the hawkish end, forecasting rate hikes could begin as early as late 2026 if oil-driven inflation proves stickier than the Bank’s base case assumes.
Claire Fan, senior economist at RBC Economics, summarized the consensus view by noting that a 2027 rate hike would be a good-news story because it would signal that the economic backdrop is firmer than it is today.
Decision-By-Decision Rate Outlook For 2027
The following projections assume the Bank enters 2027 at 2.25% with inflation near the 2% target and GDP growth tracking the 1.8% forecast from the July 2026 MPR.
If the Bank hikes before January, each subsequent projection shifts accordingly.
January 27, 2027 (MPR): Hold at 2.25%
The January MPR will arrive with limited Q4 2026 GDP data and a new set of economic projections that will shape the Bank’s tone for the year.
The Governing Council will want to confirm that the economic recovery observed in mid-2026 is sustained before beginning normalization, and trade policy uncertainty heading into the spring CUSMA review will reinforce caution.
The MPR language will likely signal that rate increases are on the table if the recovery continues, preparing markets for a move later in the spring.
March 3, 2027: Hold at 2.25%
Non-MPR meetings rarely produce rate changes unless economic conditions shift dramatically between announcement dates.
By March, Q4 2026 GDP data will be available, and the Bank will have a clearer view of whether the recovery broadened through the fall.
A March hold allows the Bank to gather one more quarter of data before the April MPR decision, which provides a much stronger communication framework for any rate change.
April 28, 2027 (MPR): Hike to 2.50% (+25 basis points)
The April MPR is the most probable date for the first rate increase, aligning with the National Bank, CIBC, and Parliamentary Budget Officer forecasts.
By late April, the Bank will have full Q1 2027 labour market data, winter inflation readings, and two quarters of confirmed GDP growth to build the case that the economy no longer needs the stimulus provided by a rate at the bottom of neutral.
If inflation is stable at or near the 2% target and the unemployment rate has declined from the 6.5% range, the conditions for normalization will be met.
The accompanying MPR press conference gives Governor Macklem the platform to explain that a 25-basis-point move is the beginning of a gradual normalization rather than a tightening campaign.
June 2, 2027: Hold at 2.50%
The Bank will likely pause after the April hike to assess its impact on housing activity, consumer spending, and the labour market.
A one-meeting pause between hikes is consistent with the Bank’s communication about being gradual and data-dependent.
July 21, 2027 (MPR): Hike to 2.75% (+25 basis points)
The July MPR is the second most likely window for a rate increase, supported by the broadest range of economist forecasts.
By mid-July, spring housing market data, Q2 GDP estimates, and a full half-year of 2027 inflation data will be available.
If the economy is absorbing the April hike without significant deterioration, the Bank will continue toward the midpoint of neutral at 2.75%.
This rate level aligns with the consensus year-end target from National Bank, CIBC, Desjardins, and the PBO.
September 8, 2027: Hold at 2.75%
The Bank will consolidate at the neutral midpoint and allow summer data to confirm that the economy is performing in line with projections.
October 27, 2027 (MPR): Hold at 2.75%
The October MPR will determine whether further normalization is needed or whether 2.75% is the appropriate resting point for the overnight rate.
If the economy is growing at or above the 1.8% pace projected in the July 2026 MPR and inflation remains anchored at 2%, the Bank may signal a third hike for early 2028 without moving at this meeting.
If growth has softened or global conditions have deteriorated, the Bank will signal an extended hold at 2.75%.
December 8, 2027: Hold at 2.75%
Year-end holds are common because the Bank prefers to make directional changes at MPR meetings where a full economic narrative can accompany the decision.
Under the base case, the overnight rate ends 2027 at 2.75%, 50 basis points above the current level and squarely at the midpoint of the estimated neutral range.
Base Case Rate Path Summary
| Date | Decision | Rate after decision |
| January 27, 2027 | Hold | 2.25% |
| March 3, 2027 | Hold | 2.25% |
| April 28, 2027 | Hike +25 bps | 2.50% |
| June 2, 2027 | Hold | 2.50% |
| July 21, 2027 | Hike +25 bps | 2.75% |
| September 8, 2027 | Hold | 2.75% |
| October 27, 2027 | Hold | 2.75% |
| December 8, 2027 | Hold | 2.75% |
Three Scenarios For Where Rates End 2027
Base case (most likely): 2.75%
Two 25-basis-point hikes at the April and July MPR meetings bring the rate to the neutral midpoint, followed by holds through the rest of the year as the Bank assesses whether further normalization is needed.
Hawkish scenario: 3.00% to 3.25%
If oil prices remain persistently elevated, headline inflation stays above 2.5%, and the labour market tightens faster than expected, the Bank could deliver three or four hikes in 2027, reaching the top of the neutral range by year-end.
This scenario aligns with the Scotiabank forecast and would push variable mortgage rates approximately 75 to 100 basis points higher than current levels.
Dovish scenario: 2.25% to 2.50%
If a global trade war escalates, the Middle East conflict deepens, or Canada’s economic recovery stalls, the Bank could hold at 2.25% for all of 2027 or deliver at most one cautious hike.
This scenario aligns with the TD Economics forecast and would keep mortgage rates near current levels through the year.
What This Means For Mortgage Holders
Variable-rate mortgage holders and those with home equity lines of credit will see their rates move in lockstep with any Bank of Canada rate change, typically within 24 hours of an announcement.
Under the base case of two 25-basis-point hikes, the major bank prime rate would rise from 4.45% to 4.95% by mid-2027, increasing monthly payments on a variable-rate mortgage by approximately $30 per $100,000 of outstanding balance.
Fixed mortgage rates are priced off Government of Canada bond yields rather than the policy rate, so they can move independently and have already begun pricing in expected 2027 hikes.
Approximately one and a half million Canadian mortgage borrowers are expected to renew in 2026 alone, with the final major wave of pandemic-era low-rate mortgages largely passing by the second half of 2027.
The federal mortgage stress test still requires borrowers to qualify at the higher of their contract rate plus 2% or 5.25%, which limits the maximum borrowing amount even in a low-rate environment.
For borrowers using a typical variable mortgage rate, a half-percentage-point increase would add approximately $29 per month for every $100,000 borrowed on a 25-year amortization, or about $30 on a 30-year amortization.
Newcomers planning to buy their first home in Canada should understand that mortgage rates are likely to move higher rather than lower over the next 18 months.
Building Canadian credit history, maintaining stable employment, and saving a sufficient down payment are more important than trying to time interest rate movements.
The 2026-2028 immigration levels plan has reduced population growth, which is easing housing demand pressures in major cities, but affordability remains a challenge in Toronto and Vancouver.
The Canadian Real Estate Association expects national home sales to increase 5.1% in 2026, with the average price rising to $698,881, followed by another 3.5% sales increase in 2027.
Rate increases would moderate this price growth, which is arguably positive for affordability from a newcomer’s perspective, especially in cities where immigration-driven demand previously outpaced supply.
The 2027 rate schedule gives markets, borrowers, and savers eight fixed windows to anticipate and react to monetary policy changes, with the four MPR dates carrying the most weight.
The most likely trajectory is a gradual normalization from 2.25% toward 2.75% through two 25-basis-point hikes at the April and July MPR meetings, consistent with the consensus among National Bank, CIBC, RBC, Desjardins, and the Parliamentary Budget Officer.
Every projection in this article is conditional on the Bank’s own assumptions holding: oil prices settling below US$75, the Middle East conflict not escalating further, US trade policy remaining manageable, and Canada’s economic recovery sustaining its second-half 2026 momentum.
If any of those assumptions break, the rate path could shift materially in either direction.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What is the Bank of Canada’s neutral rate and why does it matter for 2027?
The neutral rate is the theoretical interest rate that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy when inflation is at the 2% target and the economy is operating at full capacity. The Bank of Canada estimates the neutral range at 2.25% to 3.25%, and the current overnight rate of 2.25% sits at the very bottom of that range, meaning monetary policy is still providing slight stimulus to the economy. Most economist forecasts for 2027 involve moving the rate toward the middle or upper end of neutral, which would represent a return to normal rather than a restrictive tightening campaign.
How does a Bank of Canada rate change affect GIC and savings account returns?
When the Bank raises the overnight rate, major banks typically increase the interest rates paid on high-interest savings accounts and guaranteed investment certificates within days to weeks of the announcement. A half-percentage-point increase in the overnight rate could improve some savings and GIC offers, although the exact pass-through would vary by institution and product. Savers and retirees relying on fixed-income investments would benefit from rate normalization, unlike the past year, where the extended hold limited yield improvements.
Could the Bank of Canada cut rates again in 2027 instead of hiking?
A return to rate cuts in 2027 is possible but would require a significant economic deterioration, such as a deep trade war, a global financial shock, or a sustained recession in Canada that pushes unemployment above 8%. Swap markets currently assign less than 10% probability to a rate cut before mid-2027, and the Bank’s own projection of 1.8% GDP growth and 2% inflation is inconsistent with the need for further easing. The more realistic downside scenario is an extended hold at 2.25% rather than an outright cut.
Will the 2027 rate schedule affect the Canada Pension Plan or Old Age Security payments?
Bank of Canada rate decisions do not directly affect CPP or OAS payment amounts because those programs are indexed to the Consumer Price Index rather than interest rates. However, higher interest rates can indirectly slow inflation by cooling the economy, which would moderate future CPI-based OAS quarterly adjustments and CPP annual indexation. Seniors holding GICs or high-interest savings accounts inside TFSAs would see improved returns from rate increases, which supplements their government benefit income.
How far in advance should I lock in a mortgage rate before a Bank of Canada announcement?
Most Canadian lenders offer rate holds of 90 to 120 days at no cost and with no commitment to that lender, which means you can secure a rate before any scheduled announcement and still take a better one if the market moves in your favour. If you have a mortgage renewal or purchase closing scheduled within six months of a likely rate increase, securing a hold before the April or July 2027 MPR decisions would protect you from potential increases while preserving your ability to benefit from any unexpected downward movement.
Fact-Checked: The 2027 schedule, remaining 2026 dates, current policy rate, GDP projections, CPI figures, and labour market data are verified against the official Bank of Canada press release, the July 2026 rate decision, the July 2026 Monetary Policy Report, and Statistics Canada CPI releases current to July 28, 2026. Economist forecasts are attributed to their respective institutions as of late July 2026.
Disclaimer: This article provides general information and forward-looking analysis only and does not constitute financial, investment, or mortgage advice. Interest rate predictions reflect the author’s assessment of publicly available data and economist consensus as of the publication date. Consult a licensed financial advisor or mortgage professional for guidance specific to your situation.
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