Next Express Entry Draw Expectations And Future Of CEC Draws

Last Updated On 5 June 2024, 11:23 AM EDT (Toronto Time)

Canada resumed Canadian Experience Class (CEC) Express Entry draws on the last day of May after a long pause of around 32 months.

While this is good news for all the CEC candidates in the pool, it is important to set realistic expectations for the upcoming CEC draws in 2024.

In this article, we do a comprehensive analysis based on factual numbers and what to expect in the remainder of 2024 from all the express entry draws, including CEC.

How many invitations will be issued from June to December?

There is no fixed number of invitations that the IRCC has made public for the total number of invitations to be issued in 2024.

However, we can assume the ballpark figure based on invitations from previous years.

Canada issued 110,266 invitations to apply via 42 Express Entry draws in 2023, where the annual target for express entry was 82,880.

Year	Number of Invitations	Annual Express Entry Targets
2024	41,955 as of May 31	110,770
2023	110,266	82,880 (additional 25,000 allocated to Tr to PR)
2022	46,539	55,900 (additional 40,000 allocated to Tr to PR)
2021	114,224	108,500

Always remember that the number of invitations issued is never equal to annual targets because some of the processing inventory is carried forward to next year.

Annual targets are set for the number of permanent residents who land in Canada during a given year.

In 2024, express entry will have an increased annual target of 110,770 and there is no allocation for TR to PR this year.

This number is similar to 2021, so our conservative estimate is that the IRCC should issue anywhere around 110,000 invitations to apply in 2024.

41,955 ITAs have already been issued in 19 express entry draws this year, so around 68,000 more ITAs are expected to be issued in upcoming draws.

This means that, on average, around 9,700 ITAs can be expected to be issued on a monthly basis.

Future of CEC only Express Entry draws

Ever since an issue has been raised in regards to the increase in the population of temporary residents in Canada, the government believes that transitioning them to permanent residents is one of the solutions to the ongoing housing crisis and limiting the number of TRs.

This is the reason, in the first place, that CEC draws have finally resumed.

If IRCC maintains a general draw quota of around 40%, then we can expect around 25,000–26,000 more ITAs in all program draws this year.

We anticipate that CEC draw invitations should make up a sizable portion of these general upcoming draws.

Immigration Program	Total Invitations	Percentage of Total ITAs
General draws, including CEC draw	17,445	41.58%
Targeted Draw for French Speakers	12,400	29.56%
Agriculture and Agri-food draw	150	0.36%
Transport-targeted draw	975	2.32%
STEM Targeted Draw	4,500	10.73%
Healthcare Targeted Draw	3,500	8.34%
Trades Targeted Draw*	0	0.00%
Provincial Nominee Program	2,985	7.11%
Total	41,955

*IRCC is yet to announce trades targeted draw, which is expected to be the next targeted round of invitations on the cards.

If IRCC announces any general draws, the CRS cutoff score is expected to stay around 550.

For CEC-only draws, the CRS cutoff score is expected to stay above 500 in the upcoming rounds of invitations.

CEC candidates will need to explore options to increase their CRS score since historical levels of cutoff scores dropping below dream levels of 450 are unrealistic and unexpected at this time.

When is the next Express Entry draw?

The next Express Entry draw is expected to be announced around June 11–13, based on a biweekly schedule.

However, IRCC can skip or announce back-to-back Express Entry rounds of invitations.

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Kamal Deep Singh, RCIC

Kamal Deep Singh, RCIC (Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant) licensed by CICC (formerly known as ICCRC) with member number R708618. He brings extensive knowledge of immigration law and new changes to rapidly evolving IRCC.