New Canada Immigration Absorption Index

It is an independent benchmark model estimating the annual PR level Canada and each province can absorb under current macroeconomic conditions while accounting for newcomer contributions.

It is the modelled annual PR threshold that is less likely to push labour, housing, affordability, wages, services, and population growth further away from balanced benchmarks.

No, it is not a cap, quota, forecast, or official recommendation. It is a stabilizing benchmark for comparing current targets with macro conditions.

It is the annual permanent resident admissions target published by IRCC in the immigration levels plan, which is 380,000 for 2026. The national pressure ratio compares that target with the stabilizing threshold.

It is the federal PR target divided by the national stabilizing PR level. A ratio above 1.0 means the target is higher than the stabilizing threshold.

It is a 0–100 score measuring labour, housing, affordability, population balance, wage resilience, and service capacity against defined benchmark targets.

It is a net-benefit score showing how strongly permanent residents may support the economy through working-age participation, labour-shortage alignment, essential-sector work, Canadian experience, and retention.

The base formula is 25% working-age share + 25% labour-shortage alignment + 20% essential-sector contribution + 15% Canadian experience + 15% retention. The model then treats TR-to-PR benefits as incremental where people are already living and working in Canada.

Outside-Canada PRs are more likely to add new labour and new demand. TR-to-PR conversions often involve people already living and working in Canada, so the model counts only their incremental contribution from permanence and retention.

It combines the macro score and newcomer contribution score. For provinces, this score helps convert macro conditions into a stabilizing PR threshold.

It is the modelled midpoint number of annual PR admissions a province can absorb under current conditions after macro and contribution adjustments.

They are planning ranges around the midpoint. Provinces under greater strain receive wider ranges to reflect higher uncertainty.

It shows the stabilizing PR threshold per 1,000 residents, allowing larger and smaller provinces to be compared more fairly.

It is the weakest sub-score in the model, such as housing shortage, labour strain, affordability pressure, wage weakness, population imbalance, or healthcare/service strain.

It identifies the strongest newcomer-related positive factor, such as working-age newcomers, labour alignment, Canadian experience, essential-sector contribution, or retention.

CMA scores measure local strain only. Newcomer contribution is shown separately and does not erase local housing, affordability, or labour-market pressure.

It is the CMA-level score based on housing, affordability, labour, services, population balance, and wages. It does not produce a PR target.

It translates the Newcomer Contribution Score into plain language. High means newcomers are strongly aligned with local economic needs; Moderate means partial alignment; Low means the model sees weaker contribution alignment or weaker retention.

It shows how reliable the CMA-level inputs are. High means mostly local data, Moderate means mixed local and provincial inputs, and Low means more provincial proxy data is used.

No. Housing, labour, inflation, healthcare, and affordability pressures are influenced by interest rates, zoning, infrastructure, productivity, public policy, private investment, and demographic change.

NAIRU means the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. It is the estimated unemployment rate at which labour-market tightness is not expected to push inflation higher.

Rental vacancy is a direct housing absorption signal. A low vacancy rate means new arrivals and existing residents are competing in a tighter rental market.

Healthcare vacancy is used as a service-capacity proxy because high vacancies can indicate difficulty scaling public services with population growth.

It shows whether Canadians are moving into or out of a province. Outflows can signal affordability, labour, or quality-of-life pressure, while inflows can signal economic pull.

It is a modelled local estimate showing the annual PR level that a CMA could absorb under current local macro conditions. It is not an official allocation, target, or recommendation, and it is not compared with the federal immigration levels plan.

Federal immigration targets are national. The model avoids assigning those targets to individual CMAs because official CMA-level PR allocation targets do not exist in the same way national targets do.

It is the estimated portion of the overall stabilizing PR threshold that could come from temporary residents already in Canada transitioning to permanent residence. It is not additional to the overall PR threshold.

The model estimates a TR-to-PR share using retention, Canadian experience, and labour-market alignment. Higher retention and stronger Canadian experience increase the share because these candidates are more likely to already be participating in Canada’s economy.