New Canada Immigration Absorption Index

The Canada Permanent Resident Absorption Index is an independent INC – Immigration News Canada data model designed to estimate the annual economic permanent-resident level Canada and each province may be able to absorb under current economic and demographic conditions.

The index compares economic immigration absorption capacity against benchmarks including unemployment, housing supply, rental vacancy, affordability, wage growth, population growth, healthcare and service capacity, immigrant retention, and newcomer labour market contribution.

It is a benchmark-driven estimate created to help readers understand where economic immigration absorption capacity appears stronger, weaker, or under greater pressure across the country. It is not an official government target, forecast, quota, or policy recommendation.

National Economic Absorption Alignment

Canada’s modelled annual economic immigration absorption level is 240,854 permanent residents. The federal government’s 2026 economic immigration target is 239,800, placing the target at 0.996 times the modelled threshold, effectively full alignment.

The difference between the federal economic target and the modelled absorption level is 1,054 admissions, or about 0.44% of the modelled threshold.

The broader 2026 permanent-resident target is 380,000. That total also includes family reunification, refugees and protected persons, and humanitarian and other admissions.

Because this index is primarily built around economic absorptive capacity, the 239,800 economic immigration target is used as the primary national benchmark rather than the full 380,000 target.

Full October 2026 index: View or download the detailed Canada Immigration Absorption Index PDF

Provincial Economic Absorption Thresholds

The table below shows the modelled stabilizing economic permanent-resident threshold for each province. Low and high figures are sensitivity ranges around the central estimate. TR-to-PR is shown as a subset of the overall threshold, not an additional intake level.

Province	Economic PR Threshold	Low Range	High Range	TR-to-PR Subset	Primary Pressure Driver	Main Positive Contributor
Canada National	240,854	216,769	264,939	145,597	National weighted factors	Working-age and labour-market contribution
Ontario	93,354	84,019	102,689	57,879	Services	Retention
Quebec	52,204	46,984	57,424	31,322	Wages	Working-age newcomers
Alberta	35,143	31,629	38,657	21,789	Services	Working-age newcomers
British Columbia	34,716	31,244	38,188	21,524	Services	Retention
Saskatchewan	7,490	6,741	8,239	3,879	Services	Working-age newcomers
Manitoba	7,253	6,528	7,978	3,935	Services	Working-age newcomers
New Brunswick	4,034	3,631	4,437	2,017	Services	Working-age newcomers
Nova Scotia	3,961	3,565	4,357	2,102	Services	Working-age newcomers
Newfoundland and Labrador	2,106	1,895	2,317	958	Labour	Working-age newcomers
Prince Edward Island	593	534	652	253	Services	Working-age newcomers

Official Data Sources

Interpretation FAQs

What Is The Canada Permanent Resident Absorption Index?

It is an independent benchmark model estimating the annual economic PR level Canada and each province may be able to absorb under current macroeconomic conditions while accounting for newcomer contributions.

What Does Estimated Stabilizing Economic PR Level Mean?

It is the modelled annual economic PR threshold that is less likely to push labour, housing, affordability, wages, services, and population growth further away from balanced benchmarks.

Does This Mean Canada Should Only Grant This Number Of Permanent Residents?

No, it is not a cap, quota, forecast, or official recommendation. It is a stabilizing economic benchmark for comparing current economic immigration planning with macroeconomic conditions.

What Is The Federal Economic Immigration Target?

The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan sets the 2026 economic immigration target at 239,800 permanent residents, with a planning range of 224,000 to 264,000. The overall permanent-resident target is 380,000.

What Is The National Economic Alignment Ratio?

It is the federal economic immigration target divided by the modelled national economic absorption level. For 2026, 239,800 divided by 240,854 equals approximately 0.996, indicating near-full alignment.

Why Is The Index Compared With The Economic Immigration Target Rather Than The Full 380,000 Target?

The index is built primarily around economic absorptive capacity, including labour-market conditions, housing, affordability, wages, services, population pressure, retention, and newcomer economic contribution. The overall 380,000 target also includes family reunification, refugees and protected persons, and humanitarian and other admissions, which serve objectives beyond economic absorption.

What Is The Newcomer Contribution Score?

It is a net-benefit score showing how strongly permanent residents may support the economy through working-age participation, labour-shortage alignment, essential-sector work, Canadian experience, and retention.

What Formula Is Used For Newcomer Contribution Score?

The base formula is 25% working-age share + 25% labour-shortage alignment + 20% essential-sector contribution + 15% Canadian experience + 15% retention. The model treats TR-to-PR benefits as incremental where people are already living and working in Canada.

Why Split TR-to-PR Conversions?

Outside-Canada PRs are more likely to add both new labour supply and new demand. TR-to-PR conversions often involve people already living and working in Canada, so the model counts only their incremental contribution from permanence and retention.

What Is The TR-to-PR Threshold?

It is the estimated portion of the overall stabilizing economic PR threshold that could come from temporary residents already in Canada transitioning to permanent residence. It is not additional to the overall threshold.

How Is TR-to-PR Share Estimated?

The model estimates a TR-to-PR share using retention, Canadian experience, and labour-market alignment. Higher retention and stronger Canadian experience increase the share because these candidates are more likely to already be participating in Canada’s economy.

Does This Index Blame Immigration For Macro Pressure?

No, Housing, labour, inflation, healthcare, and affordability pressures are influenced by interest rates, zoning, infrastructure, productivity, public policy, private investment, and demographic change.

Why Use Rental Vacancy?

Rental vacancy is a direct housing absorption signal. A low vacancy rate means new arrivals and existing residents are competing in a tighter rental market.

Why Use Healthcare Vacancy?

Healthcare vacancy is used as a service-capacity proxy because high vacancies can indicate difficulty scaling public services with population growth.

Why Use Interprovincial Migration?

It shows whether Canadians are moving into or out of a province. Outflows can signal affordability, labour, or quality-of-life pressure, while inflows can signal economic pull.

Limitations

The index is an analytical planning model, not a government target, forecast, allocation, quota, or immigration policy recommendation.
The federal economic immigration target and the index are used as a benchmark comparison; their category definitions and methodologies are not identical.
The model uses scoring formulas and sensitivity ranges, not statistical confidence intervals.
Service-capacity measures do not directly capture every local constraint, including school waitlists, transit strain, or healthcare access.
The absence of an official IRCC inside/outside-Canada PR split requires a modelled TR-to-PR share formula.
The model follows the data and can change as labour-market, housing, population, retention, and newcomer-contribution indicators change.

How to Cite This Data

In-text citation:

According to the Canada Permanent Resident Absorption Index (Immigration News Canada, 2026), Canada’s modelled annual economic immigration absorption level is approximately 240,854 permanent residents, compared with the federal 2026 economic immigration target of 239,800.

Full citation:

Immigration News Canada. (2026). Canada Permanent Resident Absorption Index: October 2026 Edition. INC Data Lab. Retrieved from immigrationnewscanada.ca/canada-immigration-absorption-index/.

Data attribution:

Underlying economic and demographic data are sourced from Statistics Canada and CMHC, with immigration planning benchmarks from IRCC. Retention indicators use the Longitudinal Immigration Database.

Conditions of use: This data may be cited, referenced, and republished with attribution to Immigration News Canada and a link to the original index page. Data may not be modified or presented as the citing party’s own work.

Model Disclaimer – Feedback Welcome

The Canada Permanent Resident Absorption Index should be read as an independent benchmark model, not an official government target, forecast, allocation, or immigration policy recommendation.

The model is designed to estimate stabilizing economic permanent-resident thresholds using available labour, housing, affordability, wage, population, service-capacity, retention, and newcomer-contribution indicators. It will continue to be updated as newer official data become available.

We welcome constructive suggestions from economists, demographers, immigration professionals, housing researchers, policy analysts, employers, settlement organizations, newcomers, and readers who want to help strengthen the model.

To suggest an improvement, email info@immigrationnewscanada.ca with the subject line “Canada Immigration Absorption Index Feedback.”

Kamal Deep Singh, RCIC

Kamal Deep Singh, RCIC (Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant) licensed by CICC (formerly known as ICCRC) with member number R708618. He brings extensive knowledge of immigration law and new changes to rapidly evolving IRCC.