Express Entry Draws Now Set To Slow Down For The Rest Of 2026

Last Updated On 14 July 2026, 2:00 PM EDT (Toronto Time)

The first half of 2026 was one of the most aggressive Express Entry invitation periods in the system’s recent years.

That pace and momentum is now mathematically unsustainable for the remainder of the year.

IRCC has issued approximately 97,000 Express Entry invitations through the first week of July 2026. The full-year total for 2025 was approximately 114,000 invitations.

That means IRCC is now just 17,000 invitations away from matching all of last year, with 5.5 months still remaining in 2026.

Canadian Experience Class invitations alone have already exceeded the entire 2025 CEC total by more than 7,000, with IRCC now seeming to be doing the right thing to emphasize “In-Canada” focus.

Draw sizes have been shrinking; CRS cutoffs have been climbing; extended pauses have replaced the biweekly rhythm; and the coming Express Entry reforms will require system downtime later this year or early 2027.

This article breaks down exactly why Express Entry draws are set to slow down, what the numbers actually show, which categories face the biggest cuts, and what candidates should realistically expect through the end of 2026.

The Math No Longer Supports The First-Half Pace

The single most important number in this article is the gap between where IRCC stands right now and where the system ended in previous years.

Period	Express Entry ITAs
2024 (full year)	98,903
2025 (full year)	~114,000
2026 Jan–Mar	55,830
2026 Apr	15,797
2026 May	8,214
2026 Jun	9,226
2026 Jul (first week only)	~8,034
2026 total through Jul 11	~97,101

IRCC averaged over 18,600 invitations per month from January through March.

That monthly average dropped to 15,797 in April, 8,214 in May, and 9,226 in June and is tracking at approximately 8,000 for July’s first week.

The deceleration is already happening, and the second half of 2026 is expected to continue this downward trajectory.

If IRCC averaged another 8,000 to 10,000 invitations monthly through December, the 2026 total could finish around 140,000 to 155,000.

Canada’s current Immigration Levels Plan holds permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually through 2028, limiting the room for invitation growth despite the record pace seen in early 2026.

When PNP admission targets rise, the number of invitations available for CEC, French-language, and other federal Express Entry draws should come down proportionally.

CEC Invitations Have Already Exceeded The Entire 2025 Total

This is the data point that tells the clearest story about why the slowdown is coming.

Category	2025 Full Year	2026 To Jul 11	Status
Canadian Experience Class	35,850	~43,500	Already exceeded, but CEC is expected to continue as IRCC’s emphasis on “In-Canada” focus.
French-Language	48,000	35,500	On pace
Healthcare	14,500	8,000	Behind pace
Education	3,500	0	Zero draws in 2026
Trades	1,250	3,000	Already exceeded
STEM	0	0	Zero draws in 2026
Transport	0	0	Zero draws in 2026
Senior Managers*	0	~750	New for 2026
Physicians*	0	~662	New for 2026

*Senior Managers and Physicians are new 2026 categories that did not exist in 2025.

CEC invitations at 43,500 have already surpassed the entire 2025 CEC total of 35,850 with 5.5 months left in the year.

IRCC frontloaded CEC draws in early 2026 by issuing 8,000, 6,000, and 6,000 invitations in the first three CEC rounds as they were lagging behind on their transition of temporary residents to permanent residents.

That frontloading created the current reality: CEC draw sizes have now dropped from 8,000 in January to just 2,000 in the July 7 draw, a 75% reduction in six months.

The CRS cutoff has climbed accordingly from 507 to 517 as smaller draws leave more high-scoring candidates sitting in the pool between rounds.

With CEC already well past the 2025 total, there is no operational pressure on IRCC to issue large CEC draws for the rest of 2026, but this doesn’t mean IRCC will not hold anymore CEC rounds.

CEC rounds are expected to continue but with lower draw sizes.

Why IRCC Frontloaded The First Half And Why That Matters Now

The aggressive draw pace in January through March was not accidental. IRCC appears to have deliberately frontloaded invitations for two connected reasons.

Reason 1: Compensating for the 2025 CEC shortfall.

In 2025, IRCC issued only 35,850 CEC invitations for the entire year.

Large portions of 2025 saw CEC draws paused entirely during the spring and summer months, and IRCC came back with an 11,000-invitation blitz in December to partially close the gap.

The early 2026 CEC draws at 8,000, 6,000, and 6,000 invitations were a continuation of that catch-up effort.

Reason 2: Creating a buffer for the coming Express Entry reforms.

The proposed Express Entry overhaul is expected to take effect in the fall of 2026 or early 2027.

When IRCC implements system changes to merge the Federal Skilled Worker Program, Canadian Experience Class, and Federal Skilled Trades Program into one consolidated program, the draws will have to pause while the system is reconfigured.

IRCC knew this was coming and appears to have pushed as many invitations as possible into the first half of the year to build a cushion before that pause arrives.

The frontloading strategy worked: IRCC is now 97,000 invitations deep with the operational flexibility to slow down, pause, or restructure without falling behind annual targets.

CEC CRS Cutoffs Are Not Coming Down

The Express Entry pool contained 235,127 candidates as of July 5, 2026.

The 501 to 600 CRS band held 18,611 candidates, the segment directly competing for CEC invitations.

With CEC draws now issuing only 2,000 invitations at a time, approximately 16,000 or more candidates in this band are left behind after each round.

Roughly 2,000 new candidates enter this range every two weeks through new profiles, score improvements, and incoming work experience.

The result is a conveyor belt effect: IRCC clears 2,000 from the top while 2,000 new candidates flow in from the bottom, keeping the CRS cutoff locked above 515.

CEC Draw	ITAs	CRS	What It Shows
Jan 7	8,000	511	Massive draw keeps CRS low
Jan 21	6,000	509	Large draw, CRS steady
Mar 3	4,000	508	Mid-size draw, CRS holds
Mar 31	2,250	509	Smaller draw, CRS starts climbing
Apr 14	2,000	515	Small draw spikes CRS
May 27	3,000	518	Longer gap + modest draw = peak
Jun 23	4,000	516	A larger draw eases CRS slightly
Jul 7	2,000	517	Small draw, CRS rises again

The June 23 draw was the only CEC round after April in which a larger draw of 4,000 invitations pushed the cutoff back down from its May peak, easing the CRS score from 518 to 516.

If IRCC continues issuing only 2,000 invitations per CEC draw for the rest of 2026, the CRS cutoff is expected to remain in the 515 to 520 range.

Candidates in the 510 to 514 range should not expect CEC cutoffs to come down to their scores under the current draw volume.

French-Language Draws Will Continue

IRCC has issued 35,500 French-language invitations across seven draws in 2026, making it the second-largest category by volume behind CEC.

The federal government’s francophone immigration target for 2026 is 9% of permanent resident admissions outside Quebec.

IRCC has publicly identified that approximately 70% of francophone admissions need to come through the Federal Skilled Worker Program to hit this target.

High refusal rates on FSW applications from certain nationalities have made it even harder for IRCC to reach its francophone quota, which is why the department keeps issuing large French draws.

The July 9 French draw issued 5,000 invitations at a CRS cutoff of 420, the highest French CRS cutoff of 2026.

The rising CRS reflects growing competition in the French-language pool as more candidates learn French and qualify for these draws.

For candidates who can demonstrate TEF or TCF scores at NCLC 7 or higher in all four skills, French-language draws remain the most accessible Express Entry pathway at CRS cutoffs 100 points below the CEC threshold.

These draws are expected to continue at a pace of roughly one per month through the end of the year because IRCC’s francophone target is a policy commitment, not a discretionary goal.

STEM, Transport, Education, And Researchers Complete Silence

Several Express Entry categories that were either created or renewed for 2026 have not produced a single draw.

STEM occupations: Zero draws in 2026. This category was active in 2024 but has been completely silent since.
Transport occupations: Zero draws in 2026. This was a new category announced by Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab in February 2026, but no draw has materialized.
Education occupations: Zero draws in 2026. Education received 3,500 invitations in 2025 but has been inactive this year.
Canadian researchers: Zero draws in 2026. Another new category announced in February with no action.

Four announced categories sitting at zero draws raises a serious question about whether the IRCC will activate any of them before the Express Entry reforms arrive.

Each month of inactivity makes it less likely that these categories will receive substantial invitation volumes before the system restructuring begins.

Candidates who have been waiting for a STEM, transport, or education draw should consider alternative pathways, including provincial nominee programs and other eligible category-based draws.

Proposed Express Entry Reforms Will Force A Draw Pause

The proposed Express Entry overhaul is expected to take effect in the fall of 2026 or early 2027, and its implementation will require a pause in draws.

The reforms involve merging the three existing Express Entry programs, Federal Skilled Worker, Canadian Experience Class, and Federal Skilled Trades, into a single consolidated program.

Express Entry itself is not shutting down. It is a file management system, not a program, and it will continue operating after the reforms.

But the system changes required to implement the new point structure, the new program rules, and the revised category framework will require technical downtime during which IRCC cannot conduct draws in the usual manner.

Specific areas expected to change under the reforms include the following.

Bonus education points for Canadian one-year and two-year programs (currently 15 points) and master’s degrees (currently 30 points) may be removed.
Bonus points for French-language proficiency (currently 25 or 50 points) may be removed.
Bonus points for siblings in Canada may be removed.
Adjustments to points for accompanying versus non-accompanying spouses may be introduced.
New points for high-wage occupations may be added for approximately 35 to 37 eligible occupations based on median wage benchmarks.

Core CRS factors like work experience, age, language proficiency, and education level are expected to remain largely unchanged.

If bonus education points are removed, the impact applies equally across the entire pool, meaning the relative ranking of candidates would shift but no single group would be uniquely disadvantaged.

The critical point for draw frequency is that the reform implementation pause will create a multi-week or multi-month gap in draws later this year.

IRCC’s decision to frontload invitations in January through March was likely a deliberate strategy to build a cushion before this pause arrives.

What Candidates Should Realistically Expect Through December 2026

Based on the data, the second half of 2026 is expected to look significantly different from the first half.

CEC draws will continue but at reduced sizes. Expect 2,000 to 3,000 invitations per round with CRS cutoffs holding between 515 and 520.
French-language draws will persist. IRCC’s francophone target demands continued activity, though CRS cutoffs are climbing and may stay above 415.
PNP draws will continue. Provincial nominees will keep entering the Express Entry pool, and IRCC will clear them through targeted PNP rounds.
Healthcare and trades draws will appear selectively. Expect one to two more rounds in each category, but not at the frequency seen in early 2026.
Draw clusters will replace biweekly schedules. The monthly burst model of three to five draws over consecutive days, followed by weeks of silence, is the likely operating rhythm going forward.
A reform-related draw pause is expected in fall 2026. When IRCC implements system changes, draws will halt for a period that could last several weeks.
Total 2026 invitations will likely land between 120,000 and 145,000, depending on the duration of any slowdown and whether currently inactive categories receive draws.

Candidates who entered the pool expecting the January-to-March pace to continue through December need to recalibrate their expectations immediately.

The window for high-volume CEC draws has effectively closed.

Category-based draws and provincial nominee programs are now the most reliable pathways for candidates below CRS 515.

The Second Half Of 2026 Will Reward Candidates Who Adapt

Express Entry in the first half of 2026 was a sprint. The second half will be a controlled walk.

IRCC has already issued approximately 97,000 invitations and is approaching the full-year totals of both 2024 and 2025 with six months still remaining.

CEC draw sizes have dropped 75% from their January peak, CRS cutoffs have climbed from 507 to 517, and the coming Express Entry reforms will introduce a system pause.

None of this means Express Entry is shutting down. Draws will continue. Invitations will still be issued.

But the volume, frequency, and draw sizes that defined January through March are not coming back in 2026.

Candidates who adapt by improving their CRS scores, learning French, targeting eligible category-based draws, and pursuing provincial nominations through programs in Ontario, Alberta, Manitoba, and British Columbia will be in the strongest position to receive an invitation when the next draw arrives.

Those who sit in the pool waiting for CRS cutoffs to drop will likely be waiting a very long time.

IRCC processing times remain an important planning factor, with CEC processing currently at approximately six months.

Keep your Express Entry profile updated at all times because draws now arrive without warning after weeks of silence, and the monthly cluster model means your entire invitation window may last only three to four days per month.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Will the Express Entry reforms reset everyone’s CRS score?

No confirmed details have been released about whether existing profiles will be automatically recalculated under the new point structure. If bonus points for Canadian education, French proficiency, or siblings are removed, candidates currently receiving those points would have their CRS scores recalculated. The effect would not be equal across the pool because candidates receive different combinations and amounts of additional points, potentially changing their relative rankings.

Should candidates with a CRS of 510 to 514 wait for larger CEC draws or pursue other pathways?

Waiting is risky because CEC draw sizes have fallen to 2,000 invitations for two consecutive rounds, and the CRS has not dropped below 516 since March. Pursuing a provincial nomination, improving language scores, or qualifying for a category-based draw offers a more reliable path than waiting for IRCC to issue larger CEC rounds.

Will IRCC activate STEM, transport, or education draws before the Express Entry reforms take effect?

There is no official confirmation that any of these categories will receive draws before Express Entry reforms. Each month of inactivity reduces the likelihood of a draw before the system restructuring begins. Candidates eligible for these categories should pursue parallel pathways rather than waiting indefinitely.

How long could the Express Entry reform pause last?

IRCC has not specified the duration, but system changes of this magnitude, merging three programs into one and restructuring the point system, could require several weeks to multiple months of downtime. Previous Express Entry pauses in 2020 and 2021 lasted between three and eight months, though those were driven by COVID-19 rather than system upgrades.

Is it still worth learning French to qualify for French-language Express Entry draws?

Yes, French-language draws remain the most accessible Express Entry pathway, with CRS cutoffs 100 points below CEC. The rising CRS to 420 in July reflects more competition, but 420 is still far more achievable than the 517 CEC cutoff. IRCC’s francophone immigration target ensures these draws will continue through 2026 and likely into 2027 and 2028.

Fact-checked: All draw data, invitation counts, CRS cutoffs, category comparisons, pool statistics, and processing times in this article have been verified against official IRCC Express Entry draw results published on canada.ca as of July 12, 2026.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal immigration advice.

Kamal Deep Singh, RCIC

Kamal Deep Singh, RCIC (Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant) licensed by CICC (formerly known as ICCRC) with member number R708618. He brings extensive knowledge of immigration law and new changes to rapidly evolving IRCC.