Canada is preparing to release its next Immigration Levels Plan 2027-2029 by November 2026, and this one will carry significant implications for prospective immigrants.
The upcoming 2027-2029 Immigration Levels Plan will set the first official 2029 targets for permanent resident admissions and new temporary resident arrivals, including international students and temporary workers.
It will also confirm or adjust the existing notional targets for 2027 and 2028 that were established in the current plan.
Under Section 94(1) of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act, the Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship is required to table the annual immigration report containing the levels plan in each House of Parliament on or before November 1 of each year.
If Parliament is not sitting on November 1, the legislation provides an alternative: the Minister must table the report within the next 30 days on which that House is sitting after that date.
November 1, 2026 falls on a Sunday, which means Parliament will not be sitting that day. The practical expectation is that the new plan will be released around that date, likely in the first few days of November.
For reference, the current 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan was released on November 5, 2025.
In a New York Times interview reported on September 29, Prime Minister Mark Carney said that with Canada’s immigration system back under control, the question is now when Canada resumes a “controlled increase” in population.
Those remarks, delivered weeks before the new plan is expected, represent a significant shift in tone from the reductions Ottawa has pursued since late 2024.
Based on this development and the broader direction of immigration policy, my assessment as a licensed Canadian immigration consultant is that Ottawa may still keep the 2027 permanent resident target near the existing 380,000, but Carney’s comments materially increase the possibility of a controlled upward adjustment towards 390,000-400,000, with some adjustments to the temporary immigration as well.
The most consequential decisions may not involve the headline permanent resident number at all, but rather how many of those spaces go to Express Entry, provincial nominees, international students, temporary workers and Francophone immigrants.
In this article, we analyze the current targets, the latest population and policy signals, where Ottawa could adjust immigration allocations for 2027, and what the new plan could mean for Express Entry, PNP, international students, temporary workers and Francophone immigration.
Table of Contents
Current Immigration Targets For 2027 And 2028
Before examining what might change, it is important to understand the current targets already on the books.
The following table reflects the official figures from the Supplementary Information for the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, published by IRCC on November 5, 2025.
The 2027 and 2028 figures are described by IRCC as notional targets and ranges, meaning they are subject to confirmation or adjustment when the next plan is tabled.
| Category | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| Overall PR Admissions | 380,000 | 380,000 | 380,000 |
| Range | 350,000-420,000 | 350,000-420,000 | 350,000-420,000 |
| Economic Total | 239,800 | 244,700 | 244,700 |
| Federal High Skilled | 109,000 | 111,000 | 111,000 |
| Provincial Nominee Program | 91,500 | 92,500 | 92,500 |
| Atlantic Immigration Program | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 |
| Federal Business | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Federal Economic Pilots | 8,175 | 8,775 | 8,775 |
| Family Total | 84,000 | 81,000 | 81,000 |
| Spouses, Partners, Children | 69,000 | 66,000 | 66,000 |
| Parents and Grandparents | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 |
| Refugees & Protected Persons | 49,300 | 49,300 | 49,300 |
| Humanitarian & Other | 6,900 | 5,000 | 5,000 |
| Overall TR New Arrivals | 385,000 | 370,000 | 370,000 |
| Workers (Total) | 230,000 | 220,000 | 220,000 |
| Intl Mobility Program | 170,000 | 170,000 | 170,000 |
| Temp Foreign Worker Prog | 60,000 | 50,000 | 50,000 |
| International Students | 155,000 | 150,000 | 150,000 |
| Francophone PR Outside QC | 9% | 9.5% | 10.5% |
| Estimated Number | ~30,267 | ~31,825 | ~35,175 |
Economic immigration already represents approximately 64% of total permanent resident admissions in both 2027 and 2028, the highest proportion in over a decade.
The Provincial Nominee Program target of 92,500 in 2027 and 2028 is a significant increase from the 55,000 admissions target that had been set for 2026 under the previous 2025-2027 plan.
New temporary resident arrivals are targeted at 370,000 in both 2027 and 2028, with an official planning range of 360,000 to 380,000, sharply below the 673,650 target that applied for 2025.
Our Professional Outlook For The 2027-2029 Plan
The following table represents Immigration News Canada’s professional assessment of the most likely direction for each major immigration category in the 2027-2029 plan.
These are informed projections based on current policy direction, government commitments, demographic data and political context, not confirmed government announcements.
| Category | Current | INC Outlook | Reasoning |
| Overall PR | 380,000/yr | Stable or modest increase; 2027 could move toward 390,000–400,000; further increase more plausible by 2029 | Carney has raised prospect of controlled growth |
| Economic | 244,700 | Stable or modest increase as share to around 250,000-255,000 | Ottawa prioritizing economic class at 64% of PR |
| Federal High Skilled (EE) | 111,000 | Possible modest increase to around 115,000–120,000 levels | Labour shortages; category-based selection; strategic draws |
| PNP | 92,500 | Strong candidate for upward adjustment to around 95,000–100,000 | Provincial demand; diverse labour markets; can increase within flat total |
| Intl Students | 150,000 | Possible modest upward revision 160,000-170,000 | Sharp declines already; but 5% TR commitment constrains |
| Temp Workers | 220,000 | Broadly stable; internal shifts possible | TFWP/IMP mix may change; sector restrictions; rural needs |
| Overall TR New Arrivals | 370,000 | Around 380,000–390,000 | Student increase partly lifts overall total |
| Family | 81,000 | Broadly stable | Politically sensitive to reduce; limited pressure to expand |
| Refugees | 49,300 | Broadly stable | Humanitarian commitments; no major new crisis driving expansion |
| Francophone | 10.5% (2028) | Continued increase toward 12% by 2029 | Established trajectory; 2029 target first formal year in new plan |
This outlook represents the professional assessment of Immigration News Canada and is not an official government announcement.
Canada’s Slowing Population Growth Changes The Equation
The demographic context surrounding the 2027-2029 plan is substantially different from the environment in which Ottawa first announced deep immigration reductions.
Statistics Canada’s quarterly estimates, released September 23, 2026, show that Canada’s population reached 41,798,407 as of July 1, 2026.
Annual population growth from July 2025 to July 2026 was just 0.5%, the weakest annual growth rate in percentage terms since 1915-1916.
In absolute numbers, the increase of 189,425 people was the smallest since 1944-1945.
The non-permanent resident population stood at 2,779,774 on July 1, 2026, representing about 6.7% of Canada’s total population.
That was down by 154,614 people from a year earlier and below the revised peak of 2,984,285, or 7.2% of the population, recorded on October 1, 2024.
At Canada’s July 2026 population level, 5% would equal roughly 2.09 million people.
However, the actual numerical threshold at the end of 2027 will depend on Canada’s total population at that time.
The revised estimates show population growth of 0.2% in the second quarter of 2026, while earlier preliminary releases had reported population declines in each of the previous three quarters.
Statistics Canada’s revised April 1, 2026 population estimate is 41,718,064, which is 301,008 higher than the preliminary 41,417,056 estimate published in June, indicating that earlier reports of population decline had overstated the situation.
Canada’s population growth has slowed to historically weak levels, materially changing the demographic context in which the 2027-2029 targets will be set.
Political Context Around The 2027 Immigration Target
The political calculation around immigration has shifted in the past week.
Immigration has been one of the most politically sensitive issues in Canada over the past three years, and the federal government has repeatedly framed its recent reductions as a return to greater control, balance and sustainability in the immigration system.
Despite that sensitivity, the Prime Minister himself has now publicly opened the door to controlled population growth.
That does not confirm an increase in the upcoming Levels Plan, but it suggests the government is beginning to prepare the political and policy case for population growth after the current period of restraint.
The distinction is important: Carney is not arguing for a return to the uncontrolled temporary-resident growth of recent years.
His comments instead emphasize increasing population only after Ottawa believes immigration volumes are under control.
As of late September 2026, two national polls cited in this analysis showed the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives.
A Leger survey conducted September 5-7, 2026, among 1,538 Canadians placed the Liberals at 49% among decided voters, compared with 33% for the Conservatives.
A Liaison Strategies poll conducted September 13-26, 2026, among 1,526 Canadians put the Liberals at 46% and the Conservatives at 29% among decided and leaning voters.
In my assessment, a government in that polling position has the political space to begin a conversation about controlled growth, which is precisely what Carney appears to be doing.
In my assessment, one possible approach is a modest 2027 increase from the existing 380,000 target, followed by a gradual trajectory through 2028 or 2029, framed as controlled and sustainable growth.
What The New Plan Could Mean For Applicants
For prospective immigrants, the key message from this analysis is that individual program allocations may matter more than the headline number.
Express Entry applicants should watch for any increase in the Federal High Skilled allocation and for signals about which category-based selection rounds will be prioritized.
Provincial nominee applicants should monitor whether individual provinces receive larger or smaller shares of the overall PNP allocation.
International students considering Canada should pay attention to whether the 150,000 student target is revised and whether post-graduation work permit policies change alongside the new plan.
Francophone applicants have the clearest tailwind, as the trajectory toward 12% French-language immigration outside Quebec by 2029 creates expanding opportunities in Express Entry, PNP and dedicated Francophone pathways.
The 2027-2029 Immigration Levels Plan should be expected around early November 2026.
Under IRPA Section 94(1), the annual immigration report must be tabled on or before November 1, or, if a House of Parliament is not sitting on that date, within the next 30 days on which that House is sitting.
November 1, 2026 falls on a Sunday, so the legislation provides additional time for the report to be tabled.
Last year’s plan was released on November 5, 2025, making the first week of November a reasonable expectation this year, although the exact release date has not been announced.
The 2027-2029 Immigration Levels Plan arrives at a pivotal moment for Canadian immigration policy.
After Ottawa began cutting immigration levels in late 2024, the Prime Minister has now publicly raised the prospect of returning to controlled population growth.
That does not guarantee an increase, but it materially changes the analytical picture for the 2027 targets, which will have the most immediate impact on immigration programs and applicants.
- Population growth is at historic lows.
- Temporary resident numbers are declining.
- Labour-market needs persist.
A competing view comes from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Immigration Targets Council, which recommends 380,000 permanent resident admissions in 2027, 350,000 in 2028 and 340,000 in 2029
The genuinely new outer-year element will be 2029, the first year to receive its own official targets for permanent resident admissions and new temporary resident arrivals.
For applicants and stakeholders, the advice is straightforward: watch whether Ottawa begins to separate permanent immigration growth from temporary immigration restraint, and pay close attention to individual program allocations rather than focusing only on the headline number.
How Ottawa sets the 2027 targets, and whether they signal a return to controlled growth or maintain the current trajectory, will determine the plan’s most immediate impact on immigration to Canada, while the 2028 and 2029 figures will indicate its longer-term direction.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
When will Canada announce the 2027-2029 Immigration Levels Plan?
The plan is expected around early November 2026. Under Section 94(1) of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act, the immigration minister must table the annual report containing the levels plan on or before November 1, or within the next 30 sitting days if Parliament is not sitting on that date. November 1, 2026 falls on a Sunday. Last year’s plan was released on November 5, 2025.
Is Canada expected to reduce or increase permanent resident targets?
In our assessment, a further large reduction appears less likely given that Canada has already cut its target from a planned 500,000 to 380,000 and population growth has slowed to 0.5% annually. Prime Minister Carney’s remarks reported on September 29 about resuming controlled population growth suggest Ottawa is beginning to consider moving in the opposite direction. However, the C.D. Howe Institute’s Immigration Targets Council has recommended reducing permanent resident admissions to 350,000 in 2028 and 340,000 in 2029. The upcoming plan will signal which direction Ottawa intends to take.
Could Canada increase international student targets in 2027?
A modest increase from 150,000 is possible, but a return to previous high levels is unlikely. The government remains committed to reducing temporary residents below 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2027. Non-permanent residents still represent approximately 6.7% of the population, so Ottawa must balance institutional pressures with its temporary resident reduction commitment.
Could PNP and Express Entry targets rise even if the overall PR target stays at 380,000?
Yes, the government can reallocate spaces between immigration categories without changing the overall permanent resident target. PNP and Express Entry are the two strongest candidates for increased allocations within a stable envelope, given provincial labour-market demands and Ottawa’s increasing use of category-based Express Entry selection.
What will be new about the 2027-2029 Immigration Levels Plan?
A new element is the addition of the 2029 target year. The current plan only covers through 2028. The 2027-2029 plan will set the first official 2029 targets for permanent resident admissions and new temporary resident arrivals, including the first 2029 Francophone immigration target published within the three-year Immigration Levels Plan.
Fact-Checked: All immigration targets, legislative provisions, population statistics and federal government commitments cited in this article were verified against the official Supplementary Information for the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan as published on Canada.ca with a page date of November 5, 2025, Statistics Canada quarterly population estimates released September 23, 2026, the text of Section 94(1) of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act, the C.D. Howe Institute Immigration Targets Council recommendations published September 3, 2026, and Canadian Press reporting on Prime Minister Carney’s remarks published September 29, 2026, as of October 1, 2026.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or immigration advice. Professional projections represent the author’s assessment and do not reflect confirmed government policy. Readers should consult a qualified immigration professional or review the official IRCC immigration levels page for authoritative program information before making immigration decisions.
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