Last Updated On 1 September 2025, 10:10 AM EDT (Toronto Time)
As Canada continues to refine its immigration policies amid evolving economic needs, demographic challenges, and global talent competition, the Express Entry system remains a vital gateway for skilled workers seeking permanent residency (PR).
Today, on September 1, 2025, with the most recent Express Entry draw having occurred on August 19, immigration enthusiasts and applicants alike are eagerly awaiting the next round of Invitations to Apply (ITAs).
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has maintained a targeted approach throughout the year, emphasizing category-based selections (CBS) to fill critical labor gaps.
Drawing from official IRCC data, the recently disclosed internal IRCC memo, and insights from immigration experts, this article offers detailed predictions for the impending draw, examines CRS score trends for September, and provides practical guidance for applicants.
We’ll dissect the system’s mechanics, historical patterns, influencing factors, and strategies to optimize your profile.
Table of Contents
A Thorough Examination of 2025 Express Entry Draws to Date
Key areas IRCC is focusing on are healthcare, education, trades, and French language proficiency, all while aligning with the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan.
This multi-year strategy sets a target of approximately 395,000 permanent resident admissions for 2025, with a strategic reduction to promote sustainable integration.
ITAs issued in the second half of the year, including those in September, are largely intended to contribute to 2026 admission targets.
This is due to standard processing timelines of up to six months from ITA receipt to PR landing, ensuring a steady pipeline without overwhelming current-year quotas.
To date, IRCC has conducted 32 draws in 2025, issuing a total of 55,820 ITAs exclusively through Provincial Nominee Program (PNP), Canadian Experience Class (CEC), and CBS pathway.
Check below to see the complete table of draws in 2025:
PNP draws are consistent but modest (192-825 ITAs, CRS 667-802), CEC varies (500-4,000 ITAs, CRS 518-547).
CBS shows volume: French (2,500-7,500 ITAs, CRS 379-481) exceeded its 18,500 target with 21,000 ITAs; healthcare (500-4,000 ITAs, CRS 470-510) nears 8,000; education (1,000 ITAs, CRS 479).
Trades remain untapped, hinting at upcoming action.
January-March built French momentum (21,000 ITAs), April PNP-focused, May introduced education/healthcare, June-July scaled CEC/healthcare, August mixed with low healthcare cutoff.
CRS cutoffs hinge on pool dynamics, ITA sizes, and priorities.
French draws stay low due to targeted quotas and overseas dominance (87% of Francophones).
PNP highs stem from nomination boosts. Economic drivers: Shortages in healthcare (90,000+ needed) and trades (construction surge) prioritize these.
Demographics—aging workforce—favor CEC. Memo’s provincial sharing enhances predictability, though operational variances occur.
Global influxes from countries like India increase pool size, elevating cutoffs. Backlogs are managed (80% processed on time), but category delays (e.g., trades) reflect approvals.
Expert Predictions for the Next Express Entry Draw
Category-specific trends: French low (379-481), healthcare declining (510 to 470) with larger draws, education at 479, CEC stable mid-500s (518-547), PNP high (667-802).
Remaining quotas suggest September stability: French complete, healthcare or education 400s-500s, trades 450+, CEC 520+, PNP 700+.
Given that the last draw was on August 19, 2025—a healthcare category round issuing 2,500 ITAs at a CRS cutoff of 470—the typical bi-weekly cadence suggests the next one could occur as early as September 2 or 3, 2025, immediately following the Labour Day holiday on September 1.
Holidays often cause minor delays, but IRCC has historically adjusted schedules to maintain momentum, especially as the year progresses toward end.
A high-probability scenario points to a trades category draw, as zero ITAs have been issued in this category against the memo‘s allocation of approximately 3,300 for 2025.
There is also a potential spillover into larger volumes (3,000-4,000 ITAs) to address trade draw delays and build for next year.
These delays, attributed to internal memorandum approvals and coordination with provinces like Ontario’s OINP Skilled Trades stream, have left a backlog of demand.
Trade draws target occupations such as carpenters (NOC 72310), electricians (NOC 72410), plumbers (NOC 72300), welders (NOC 72106), and even cooks (NOC 63200)—a somewhat controversial inclusion that has sparked debates among experts about its alignment with traditional trades.
Candidates in these fields should urgently verify their National Occupational Classification (NOC) codes against IRCC’s eligible list and ensure profiles highlight relevant experience.
A trades draw could feature a CRS cutoff in the 450-470 range mirroring recent healthcare trends where larger ITA volumes have lowered thresholds to attract sufficient applicants.
IRCC’s commitment to labor market needs—particularly in construction and skilled trades amid Canada’s infrastructure boom—makes this category overdue.
If realized, such a draw could issue upwards of 3,000 ITAs to compensate, potentially dipping the CRS below 470 if the pool’s trades-qualified candidates are concentrated in mid-range scores (400-500), as seen in healthcare’s August 19 drop to 470.
Alternative possibilities include another healthcare draw, with CRS around 470 and 1,000-2,000 ITAs to close out the remaining quota (estimated 500-2,000 left).
Or we can see an education category round at CRS ~480 with 1,000+ ITAs, targeting teachers and educators to support growing school systems.
There is always a possibility of CEC draws, given August’s recent inclusions (CEC on August 7 at 534 CRS) and we can see week starting with a small PNP round (200-300 ITAs, CRS 750+).
September may feature 4-5 draws, bi-weekly, nearly 8,000 ITAs. PNP likely first followed by Trades, and then education/healthcare, CEC, PNP.
Maximize scores: Aim for CLB 9+ via IELTS/TEF, secure ECAs, pursue PNPs for 600 points.
Monitor updates, consult RCICs, enter early. Example: A welder with CRS 460 got ITA in hypothetical trades draw.
September 2025 holds promise through targeted draws. Align with priorities, optimize profiles—your PR awaits.
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When is the next Express Entry draw expected in September 2025?
The next Express Entry draw is predicted to occur on September 2-3, 2025, shortly after Labour Day. Draws typically follow a bi-weekly pattern, so subsequent ones could happen around September 9-10, 16-17, 23-24, and 30. However, IRCC’s schedule can vary due to operational factors, holidays, or policy adjustments.
What is the predicted CRS cutoff for the upcoming trades category draw?
For a predicted trades occupations draw on September 2-3, 2025, the CRS cutoff is estimated at 450. This is based on the untouched 3,300 ITA allocation in the IRCC memo and recent healthcare cutoffs dropping to 470 with larger volumes.
How do the 2025 Express Entry draws align with Canada’s immigration targets?
In 2025, 55,820 ITAs have been issued across 32 draws, focusing on PNP, CEC, and CBS to meet economic priorities like Francophone admissions (8.5% target, exceeded with 21,000 ITAs) and labor shortages. Draws in the second half, including September, primarily build toward 2026 targets (395,000-365,000 admissions planned for 2025-2027), emphasizing sustainable integration.
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