Last Updated On 11 June 2024, 8:58 AM EDT (Toronto Time)

International students in Canada are finding it harder than ever because of the steep rise in the cutoff score in Express Entry draws for permanent residency (PR).

With recent good news of resumption of Express Entry PR rounds of invitations for Canadian Experience Class comes the bad news of high cutoff scores to qualify in these PR rounds.

International graduates who have successfully studied and worked on post-graduation work permits (PGWPs) for years may now be forced to leave because of this increase in the cutoff score for PR.

To give a pretext to our readers, the Express Entry system is the most common way of getting permanent residency based on skill set.

The system uses Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) scoring based on age, level of education, years of work experience, language proficiency, etc., and a cutoff score is announced for an Express Entry draw to invite a candidate to apply for permanent residency.

We are now seeing immigration consultations by concerned international graduates who have a Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score of 515 and whose PGWP is expiring in the next 3 months.

Furthermore, there are international graduates with a CRS score of around 480–495 who have already left Canada because their PGWP expired this year and they didn’t want to use unethical measures to extend their stay.

Based on Express Entry historical numbers, such individuals would be considered strong candidates for permanent residency until mid-2023.

However, the cutoff score for general draws has reached 529 (expected to go even higher) in the last general draw and 522 in the first general draw for Canadian Experience Class (CEC) candidates announced on May 31st.

What is the matter of concern?

In plain sight, one can easily say that it is good for Canada to select even more skilled individuals with higher CRS scores as compared to before.

Students who are going back from Canada in the first place stated that they will leave once their authorized period of stay ends.

The matter of concern is that Canada is now selecting even less skilled individuals just because they have high proficiency in French.

Promoting French is important, but not at the cost of ignoring all the other human capital factors such as age, education level, years of work experience, etc.

In 2024, Canada invited 12,400 candidates to apply for permanent residency in 4 Express Entry draws targeting candidates with high French language proficiency.

The CRS cutoff score was as low as 336 in the February 29, 2024, round of invitations and the highest at 410 in the April 24, 2024, draw.

Another matter of concern is that these cutoff scores are even lower than what we saw in 2023.

8,700 individuals were invited in 6 draws, with a cutoff score as low as 375 and the highest at 486.

In technical analysis, we call it the lower-lows and lower-highs pattern, which seems to be of grave concern not only for the Canadian immigrant selection process but also for such newly selected permanent residents.

They would find it difficult to economically integrate because of the lack of a specific skill set that the Express Entry system is designed to match with Canadian needs.

Possible Solution: More CEC Express Entry Draw

First things first, let’s make it clear that any part of this article is not intended to say that French-speaking individuals are low-skilled.

French is of outmost importance to Canada, but selecting economic immigrants just based on language skills seems unreasonable.

The number of PR invitations for French speakers should be reduced and evenly distributed across the 12 months to keep the CRS cutoff score around 460–70.

The number of invitations should depend on or around this cutoff score, or rather, a cutoff score based on the IRCC’s intended number of invitations to be sent, maintaining the balance of the skill set of newly selected immigrants.

More allocation and more draws should be given to the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) to bring down the CRS cutoff score below 500.

To meet francophone immigration annual targets, Canada should fast-track the implementation of rural pilots for French-speaking communities announced by immigration minister Marc Miller in March 2024.

As a temporary solution, a federal PGWP extension policy should come into place for CEC candidates in the Express Entry pool, similar to the one for Manitoban international graduates with expiring PGWPs.

For example, individuals with expired or expiring PGWPs in 2024 in the Express Entry pool get an extension of up to 2 years to hone their skill levels further in alignment with newly implemented category-based draws.

How practical is the PGWP extension in terms of numbers?

Minister Miller has accepted the request of Manitoba to extend the PGWPs of 6,700 international graduates for up to 2 years who are in the provincial nominee program (PNP) pool.

On May 29, there were 224,404 candidates in the pool from all the Express Entry programs, including Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP), Canadian Experience Class (CEC), and Federal Skilled Trades.

CRS score range	Number of candidates
601-1200	2,918
501-600	14,211
451-500	63,353
401-450	54,078
351-400	57,028
301-350	27,210
0-300	5,606
Total	224,404

Distribution of CRS score in Express Entry pool on May 29, 2024

For further calculations, please keep in mind that not all the profiles are of the Canadian Experience Class in the pool. Furthermore, PGWPs are not expiring for all the CEC candidates in the pool.

In comparison to Manitoba, Ontario is 10x bigger, Quebec is 6x, B.C. is 3.8x, Alberta is 3.25x, the Atlantic provinces are 1.78x, and Saskatchewan is 0.83x.

Based on 6,700 PGWP extensions for Manitoba and population multiples, we can say that it is easily doable to grant extensions across various provinces of Canada.

How many candidates in the Express Entry pool would need a PGWP extension?

Now, exact data for number of PGWPs expiring in 2024 should be available with IRCC, but we can make an estimate based on historical numbers.

At the time of introducing the 18-month PGWP extension policy in March 2023, it was estimated that about 127,000 PGWPs would expire in 2023.

Out of these, 67,000 had already applied for permanent residency, leaving behind 50,000 who would have already benefited until December 2023.

The number of international students with expiring PGWPs in the Express Entry pool would be even lower than this since not all have created their profiles.

Still, we can estimate that on the higher side, around 50,000–70,000 PGWP holders or perhaps even fewer, could be in the Express Entry pool and need an extension.

So there seems to be no point in losing talented individuals who studied and are now working in Canada, have already integrated into Canadian communities and are contributing to the country’s economy.

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Kamal Deep Singh, RCIC

Kamal Deep Singh, RCIC (Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant) licensed by CICC (formerly known as ICCRC) with member number R708618. He brings extensive knowledge of immigration law and new changes to rapidly evolving IRCC.