Canada has long been a top destination for international students and workers, but 2025 marks a significant shift in its immigration landscape.

According to the latest data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), new arrivals of temporary residents have significantly declined.

Specifically study permit holders and Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) work permit holders—have significantly declined between January and June 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.

With projections for the full year of 2025 showing a continued downward trend, Canada’s immigration policies are reshaping its demographic and economic future.

What’s driving this change, and what do the numbers mean for Canada’s global appeal?

From tightened regulations to shifting demographics, let’s unpack the trends, numbers, and implications.

A Sharp Decline in New Arrivals

The data reveals a stark reduction in new temporary residents.

In January–June 2024 (Q1-Q2), Canada issued study permits to 245,055 unique persons and TFWP work permits to 109,310 unique persons, totaling 354,365.

In January–June 2025 (Q1-Q2), these figures dropped to 149,860 study permit holders and 105,195 TFWP work permit holders, totaling 255,055 new arrivals.

Explore the full story behind the 70% plummet in international students in more detail

This represents a 38.9% decrease in study permit holders (from 245,055 to 149,860) and a 3.8% decrease in TFWP work permit holders (from 109,310 to 105,195), or a combined decline of 28.0% in new arrivals (from 354,365 to 255,055).

On a monthly basis, January–June 2024 averaged 40,842 study permit holders and 18,218 TFWP work permit holders, compared to 24,976 study permit holders and 17,532 TFWP work permit holders in January–June 2025.

Assuming the trends from Q1-Q2 2025 continue linearly, we can project full-year figures for 2025.

For study permits, the 149,860 issued in Q1-Q2 suggest an annual total of approximately 299,720 (149,860 × 2), though seasonal spikes in Q3 (e.g., August for academic intakes) could increase this to around 350,000, factoring in historical patterns from 2024 (where Q3 saw a 43.5% increase over Q1-Q2 averages).

For TFWP work permits, the 105,195 in Q1-Q2 suggest an annual total of approximately 210,390 (105,195 × 2), with less seasonal variation due to consistent labor demand.

This number is way too high from the Canadian government’s set target of 82,000 TFWP work permits.

Combined, 2025 could see roughly 560,390 study permits and TFWP work permits, a 20.7% decrease from 2024’s 706,790, but higher than set immigration targets for 2025.

Comparison with IRCC’s 2025 Temporary Resident Targets

IRCC’s 2024 Immigration Levels Plan sets specific targets for temporary residents in 2025, aiming for 673,650 overall arrivals (range: 604,900–742,400), including 305,900 study permit holders and 82,000 work permit holders via the TFWP).

Comparing these targets with the 2025 projections based on Q1-Q2 data reveals significant gaps:

Study Permits: The projected 350,000 study permit holders exceed IRCC’s target of 305,900 by 14.4%, potentially due to seasonal spikes in Q3 (e.g., August intakes) not fully reflected in Q1-Q2 data.
- However, the 38.9% decline from January–June 2024 to 2025 indicates that caps and financial requirements are significantly curbing student arrivals, though not as severely as might align with IRCC’s target.
Work Permits: The projected 210,390 TFWP work permit holders significantly exceed IRCC’s TFWP target of 82,000 (by 156.6%).
- This figure is quiet high than what IRCC set as an annual target.
- The resilience of TFWP arrivals (only a 3.8% drop from 2024 to 2025) suggests that labor demand in sectors like agriculture (e.g., Mexico, Guatemala) remains strong.

This comparison underscores that while study permit projections align relatively closely with IRCC’s goals, the work permit landscape is more concerning.

IRCC’s target of reducing temporary residents to 5% of Canada’s population by 2026 seems not to appear on track due to increased TFWP inflows in 2025.

For ongoing consultations on the new Canada immigration levels plan, check the latest updates.

Changing Demographics of Newcomers

The composition of new arrivals has shifted noticeably.

In January–June 2024, study permit holders comprised 69.2% of new study permits and work permits (245,055 out of 354,365), with TFWP work permit holders at 30.8%.

In January–June 2025, study permit holders dropped to 58.8% (149,860 out of 255,055), while TFWP work permit holders rose to 41.2%.

This shift indicates a growing reliance on workers relative to students, driven by stricter study permit policies.

Learn more about Canada’s study permit allocations for 2025.

India remains one of the top source for both programs but shows significant declines.

Study permits from India fell from 99,950 in January–June 2024 to 47,695 in 2025 (a 52.3% drop), while TFWP work permits remained stable, dropping slightly from 16,965 to 16,560 (a 2.4% decline).

Seasonal patterns persist—August typically sees student spikes due to academic intakes—but the overall reduction in study permit holders is unprecedented, driven by IRCC’s restrictive measures.

For insights into processing delays for temporary residents, see our coverage.

Current Population Trends: A Mixed Picture

The provided data focuses on new permit holders, not the total stock of temporary residents, so precise figures for active permit holders are unavailable.

However, the significant drop in new study permit holders (from 245,055 in January–June 2024 to 149,860 in 2025) suggests a shrinking pipeline of international students.

Conversely, TFWP work permit holders show resilience, with only a slight decline (from 109,310 to 105,195).

Projected to year-end, 2025’s study permit total (est. 350,000) is 32.1% lower than 2024’s 515,520, while TFWP work permits (est. 210,390) are up 10.0% from 2024’s 191,270.

This dynamic likely reflects transitions within Canada’s immigration system.

Many students on expired Post-Graduation Work Permits (PGWPs), could be bolstering TFWP work permit numbers.

This pipeline explains the relative stability in TFWP work permits despite fewer new arrivals.

Learn about four new immigration reforms for temporary residents.

Canada’s Bold Reforms

The decline in new arrivals is a direct result of IRCC’s policy changes, implemented since 2024 to manage temporary resident levels:

Study Permit Caps: A nationwide cap on study permit applications, distributed across provinces, has significantly reduced new student inflows. Details on the new Canada study permit cap for 2025 are available here.
Higher Financial Requirements: Increased cost-of-living thresholds have made Canada less accessible for some students. Read about the new cost of living increase for study permits.
Stricter PGWP Eligibility: New field-of-study requirements and restrictions limit post-graduation work opportunities. Check Canada’s new list of PGWP-eligible fields.
Revised Work Rules: Changes to off-campus work conditions have reduced flexibility for students.
Closure of Expedited Streams: Programs like the Student Direct Stream and Nigeria Student Express have been discontinued, slowing application processing.

For TFWP workers, reforms include:

End of COVID-Era Policies: Easy transitions from visitor to work permits have been phased out.
Intra-Company Transferee (ICT) Restrictions: Eligibility is limited to specialized knowledge employees of multinational corporations.
Ban on Flagpoling: Same-day border processing has been eliminated, requiring standard application channels.
Multi-Year Work Permit Targets: Starting in 2025, IRCC has set limits on new TFWP and International Mobility Program (IMP) permits.
Spousal Work Permit Restrictions: Eligibility for Spousal Open Work Permits (SOWPs) has been tightened, particularly for spouses of students and certain workers.

These measures align with Canada’s 2025 Immigration Levels Plan, which, for the first time, includes targets for temporary residents, aiming to reduce their share of the population from 7% to 5% by 2026.

For the full scoop on IRCC’s 2025-2026 immigration plan, head over to this article.

Who’s Not Counted?

IRCC’s data focuses on new study and TFWP work permit holders, excluding:

Asylum Claimants: Refugee claims are separate from planned immigration levels.
Permit Extensions: Existing residents renewing permits are not counted as new arrivals.
Seasonal Agricultural Workers: Short-term rural labor workers are excluded.
Short-Term TFWP Workers: Contracts of 270 days or less, often in tourism or construction, are not included.

This methodology ensures a clear focus on new inflows, distinct from Canada’s broader temporary resident population.

Implications for Canada’s Future

The projected decline in new international students for 2025 could reshape Canada’s education sector, which relies heavily on international student tuition.

Universities and colleges, especially in provinces like Ontario and British Columbia, may face financial challenges.

The labor market, however, benefits from sustained TFWP work permit holders, particularly from countries addressing shortages.

However, there has been significant surge in unemployment rate for Canadian youth exceeding 20% which is why TFWP is now being criticised more than ever.

The rise in work permit holders, projected at 210,390 for 2025, underscores the Canada’s role to reduce reliance on foreign workers.

Fewer new students could shrink the pipeline for post graduation work permit long-term, impacting skilled labor supply.

Canada’s global image is evolving. Once known for open-door policies, the country now prioritizes sustainability amid housing shortages and infrastructure concerns.

As Canada navigates this new immigration era, balancing economic needs, policy goals, and global competitiveness will be critical.

The 2025 Immigration Levels Plan seems to be facing challenges whether on the new permanent resident side or temporary foreign workers angle.

Will these reforms achieve sustainable growth? How will they shape Canada’s reputation as a destination for talent?

The number of new temporary residents in January–June 2025 versus in January–June 2024—mark a bold shift.

Whether this is a temporary adjustment or a lasting transformation, Canada’s immigration landscape is undergoing a profound change.

Source: Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada Open Data.

Purnima Mann

Purnima Mann, a news writer passionate about delivering insightful and well-researched articles. From current affairs to finance and culture , I aim to inform, engage, and spark meaningful discussions. Stay informed and explore new perspectives with me.