Express Entry Draw Predictions And Expectations For New Year 2026

Last Updated On 31 December 2025, 10:57 AM EST (Toronto Time)

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Express Entry is entering 2026 as a targeted-selection system, as in 2025 with clear “volume levers,” not a single-lane competition where one draw type defines the entire year.

The pattern across 2025 Express Entry draws leaned heavily on French-language proficiency, ran frequent Provincial Nominee Program rounds, and used the Canadian Experience Class as the main in-Canada release valve when pressure built in the pool.

That same architecture is positioned to carry through 2026, but with sharper edges.

French-language selection is still the most definitive lane because it maps directly to a published federal objective for French-speaking permanent resident admissions outside Quebec.

At the same time, the Provincial Nominee Program target is set to increase materially in 2026, which inevitably changes how many nomination-backed candidates will be entering the Express Entry pool and how often IRCC will need to clear them through PNP rounds.

This article provides a practical forecasting model for 2026 Express Entry draws, including:

Specific predictions for the next draws are expected in the beginning of January 2026.
A structured Q1 to Q4 scenario framework with monthly ITA projections.
Expected CRS cutoff scores by round type, anchored to the most recent observed cutoffs and the current pool shape
A forward-looking view of how the new “physicians with Canadian work experience” category could behave once it starts showing up in rounds.

Which Express Entry Draws Will Be Prioritized in 2026

IRCC’s current category-based selection menu includes the following lanes:

French-language proficiency
Healthcare and social services occupations
STEM occupations
Trade occupations
Agriculture and agri-food occupations
Education occupations
Physicians with Canadian work experience

For forecasting, what matters is not just the list, but which categories have the strongest “policy gravity.”

In 2026, the highest-gravity forces are:

French-language proficiency, because it supports the federal objective for French-speaking admissions outside Quebec (set at 9% for 2026, rising to 10.5% in 2027).
Canadian Experience Class, because it is the most operationally flexible way to convert in-Canada workers into permanent residents without relying on a single occupation list.
Provincial Nominee Program rounds, because the PNP admissions target is set to rise to 91,500 in 2026.

The new physicians category matters because it creates a dedicated Express Entry lane for a subset of candidates that were previously “competing” inside broader healthcare rounds or relying on nominations and employer pathways.

Targets do not equal invitations: the math IRCC actually manages

Annual admissions targets influence planning, but invitations are a separate lever and are not equal to annual targets.

IRCC issues more invitations than the number of people it expects to land as permanent residents from those invitations because:

Not every invited candidate applies. Yes, that’s true; there are candidates who don’t apply even after receiving an ITA.
Not every application is approved and recently there has been reported increase in refusals.
Some approvals land in a later calendar year than the year the invitation was issued.
IRCC needs inventory to avoid “gaps” in admissions when processing timelines fluctuate.

What does the 2025 Express Entry draw history tells us?

2025 delivered 113,998 ITAs across 58 rounds, distributed as follows:

2025 ITAs by round type

Round type	ITAs	Number of rounds	CRS range (lowest invited)
French-language proficiency	48,000	9	379 to 481
Canadian Experience Class	35,850	15	515 to 547
Provincial Nominee Program	10,898	24	667 to 855
Healthcare and social services	14,500	7	462 to 510
Education	3,500	2	462 to 479
Trades	1,250	1	505

The headline trend is not just that French was large. It is that French was large and repeatable at low CRS cutoffs relative to the rest of the system, including very aggressive cutoffs like 379 when IRCC pushed a 7,500 ITA round in March.

That is the clearest evidence that French will remain the “dominant volume valve” in 2026.

CEC behaved differently: the cutoffs were consistently high, and the invitation volumes swung from small maintenance rounds (1,000) to larger pressure-release rounds (3,000 to 6,000).

That is the operating signature of a lane that IRCC uses tactically to manage in-Canada inventory and is expected to continue with high ITAs for CEC in 2026.

PNP rounds were frequent and relatively low volume due to the PNP quota being cut by 55% in 2025, but now it has been increased again in 2026.

PNP draws carried extremely high cutoffs because nominees receive a large CRS boost.

In practice, PNP cutoffs are not a “competitiveness” story; they are a reflection of nomination-backed scoring.

How is the new physicians category likely to behave?

IRCC lists “physicians with Canadian work experience” as a current category.

IRCC has also signalled an early 2026 implementation direction for measures supporting physician participation and alignment with the broader health workforce agenda.

From a forecasting standpoint, physicians will likely show a distinct profile:

Smaller, controlled ITA volumes initially, because eligibility is narrow and the IRCC will be calibrating intake and processing.
CRS cutoffs that are not necessarily “low,” because physicians often carry strong education and language profiles, but the category targeting can still allow IRCC to invite below the usual CEC cutoffs.

The base expectation is that physician rounds begin as a quarterly feature and then become more frequent if IRCC wants consistent admissions flow in that lane.

First Express Entry draw of 2026 predictions

Based on the most recent pattern in December (a tight sequence of PNP, CEC, then French) and the fact that IRCC often resumes draws quickly after the holiday period, the most probable structure for the week of January 5 is a three-round sequence anchored by those same lanes.

Below are specific predictions, including ITAs and CRS cutoff estimates.

Predicted draws: January 5-9

Expected date	Expected round type	Predicted ITAs	Predicted CRS cutoff (lowest invited)	Why this is the base case
Monday, January 5	Provincial Nominee Program	~700	720 to 755	PNP rounds stay on a steady cadence; recent PNP cutoffs clustered around the low seven hundreds when ITAs are near 1,000
Wednesday, January 7	Canadian Experience Class	~5,000	512 to 524	A “first-week restart” CEC is likely; a repetition of 5,000 ITA size as on December 16.
Thursday, January 8	French-language proficiency	6,000	390 to 415	French is the cleanest way to add volume early in the year with a CRS floor near the low 400s, consistent with late 2025

Expected 2026 ITAs By Round-Type

This section provides you a forecast with a base-case annual ITA plan and monthly invitation projections by category and expected CRS cutoff scores.

Base-case annual plan

Base-case 2026 total ITAs: 117,000. Proposed ITA allocation by category (base case):

French-language proficiency: 48,000
Canadian Experience Class: 40,000
Provincial Nominee Program: 12,000
Healthcare and social services: 10,000
Other occupation categories (education, trades, STEM, agriculture): 4,000
Physicians with Canadian work experience: 3,000

Rationale for the base-case total:

It is slightly higher than the 2025 ITA total from your list (about 114,000) while still realistic under a framework where invitations exceed admissions to account for refusals and timing spillover.
It keeps French clearly dominant, consistent with the policy objective and the repeated 2025 execution pattern.
First quarter is expected to be intentionally heavier than the third quarter because IRCC often uses early-year rounds to establish inventory for the admissions year.
December is heavier because IRCC historically uses late-year rounds to close gaps and shape the starting inventory for the next year.

Expected CRS cutoff score ranges in 2026

These are not single-point calls. They are forecast bands based on:

The 2025 observed CRS floors in each lane
The latest CRS score distribution in the pool
The invitation volumes in the base-case plan

French-language proficiency

Q1: 395 to 425
Q2: 400 to 430
Q3: 405 to 440
Q4: 395 to 430

French can dip when IRCC issues very large rounds, but it rebounds quickly if the pool replenishes with new French-qualified profiles.

CEC

Q1: 510 to 530
Q2: 505 to 525
Q3: 500 to 520
Q4: 495 to 515

CEC only drops meaningfully when IRCC runs multiple large CEC rounds close together.

With a pool that still contains over 21,000 candidates above 500, a sustained cutoff drop requires sustained volume, not a single large round.

PNP

Q1: 720 to 780
Q2: 710 to 775
Q3: 715 to 785
Q4: 705 to 770

PNP CRS is mainly a function of nomination-backed scoring and the mix of nominees in the pool at the time of the draw.

Cutoffs can swing widely without implying a change in “difficulty.”

Q1: 460 to 490
Q2: 455 to 485
Q3: 455 to 480
Q4: 450 to 480

Healthcare cutoffs are highly sensitive to how IRCC defines the eligible occupation list for the round and whether IRCC chooses to prioritize “lower CRS but targeted” intake versus “higher CRS but faster processing.”

Other occupation categories

Because each category has its own supply and pool behaviour, the best forecast is crs cutoff score by category, not one blended number.

Education: 450 to 475
Trades: 495 to 515
STEM: 480 to 505
Agriculture and agri-food: 410 to 445

These cutoff scores reflect the 2024 and 2025 scores, adjusted modestly upward for the current pool competitiveness.

Alternative scenario: what changes if IRCC tightens the draws

We cannot ignore another scenario in which IRCC tightens the number of ITAs, given that the permanent residency inventory under processing already has applications to meet more than two years of targets.

Controlled year (tight invitation management)

Total ITAs: less than 100,000

What it would look like:

French remains active but closer to 4,000 to 5,000 per round
CEC returns to a higher share of 3,000 “maintenance” rounds
Healthcare and other categories become more selective

CRS implication:

French floors drift higher and stay in the 410 to 440 range
CEC stays mostly above 520
Category rounds become more competitive because IRCC is taking fewer “lower CRS, targeted” candidates

How candidates should interpret these predictions

Express Entry aspirants need to understand that nobody can predict the exact draw details, so below is what they need to know about our predictions above.

If you are a French-language candidate

In 2026, this is still the clearest volume category.
The cutoff sensitivity is mostly about round size. When IRCC issues 5,000 to 7,000 ITAs, the floor can stay near the low 400s and sometimes below.
The main risk is not a permanent cutoff spike. The main risk is missing eligibility details for the round instructions.

If you are targeting CEC

Expect the CRS floor to remain above 500 for most of the year unless IRCC runs repeated large CEC rounds.
The best “timing edge” in CEC is usually the period after a large CEC round when the pool temporarily thins, especially if a second CEC round follows quickly.

If you are counting on a nomination

Treat PNP CRS as a technical indicator, not a competitiveness indicator.
What matters is nomination availability in your province and stream alignment with labour needs.
With the PNP admissions target at 91,500 in 2026, provinces have a larger landing expectation, which supports continued nomination activity.

If you are in healthcare, education, trades, STEM, or agriculture

Category rounds can remain the “best CRS-to-ITA exchange rate” outside French, but they are inherently less predictable because IRCC can change the frequency quickly.
Your strongest indicator is what happens in January and February. If IRCC runs 2 healthcare rounds early, that typically signals the category will remain active in 2026.

If you are a physician with Canadian work experience

Watch for the first physician’s round and treat it as a calibration event.
The first cutoff will tell you whether IRCC is using the category to scoop “top-of-pool physicians” or to invite deeper into the pool to hit a health workforce goal.

2026 Express Entry FAQs

Why does IRCC sometimes issue a large number of ITAs but CRS scores still remain high?

CRS scores remain high when the Express Entry pool has a dense concentration of candidates at the top score ranges. Even large draws may not significantly lower the cutoff if thousands of candidates already sit above a certain CRS threshold. CRS only drops meaningfully when IRCC issues repeated large draws close together, not from a single high-volume draw.

How often does IRCC change the type of Express Entry draw?

IRCC does not follow a fixed public schedule for draw types. Draw selection depends on operational needs, inventory levels, policy priorities, and category-based targets. It is common for IRCC to alternate between different draw types within the same month, such as PNP, CEC, and category-based rounds, especially at the start or end of a year.

Does a higher immigration target guarantee more Express Entry invitations?

Immigration targets represent admissions, not invitations. IRCC may increase or decrease the number of ITAs independently of annual targets based on application backlogs, processing capacity, refusal rates, and existing inventory. Some years with higher targets still see fewer ITAs if IRCC already has enough applications in the system.

Why do Provincial Nominee Program draws have much higher CRS cutoffs?

PNP candidates receive a large CRS boost of 600 points due to their nomination, which automatically pushes their scores far above non-nominated candidates. High CRS cutoffs in PNP draws do not indicate higher competition; they simply reflect how nomination points are calculated within the Express Entry system.

Can the CEC CRS drop below 510 in 2026?

It can, but it typically requires repeated large CEC rounds close together. With tens of thousands of profiles sitting above 500 in the pool, a single round rarely changes the CRS cutoff for long.

Does a higher PNP target mean more Express Entry PNP invitations?

Not automatically in a one-to-one way, but a higher PNP admissions target supports steady nomination activity, which tends to keep PNP rounds regular because nomination-backed profiles need to be cleared through invitations.

What is the single biggest factor that will change these predictions?

Round size repetition. If IRCC runs multiple large rounds for CEC or French within two to three weeks, CRS cutoff floors can shift quickly. If IRCC runs smaller maintenance rounds, CRS floors tend to stay elevated.

Satinder Bains

Satinder brings expertise, knowledge, and experience related to internal work flows at IRCC. She worked at Canadian Consulate in Chandigarh before moving to Canada. Her articles on “Chinook – An internal IRCC tool used to bulk process temporary applications” was one of the notable work on our news website