Last Updated On 3 March 2026, 12:33 PM EST (Toronto Time)
March 2026 is already off to a strong start for Express Entry. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada held its first Express Entry draw of the month on March 2, and the pattern suggests an aggressive invitation pace will continue throughout the month.
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has issued nearly 35,000 invitations in the first two months of the year alone, and the momentum shows no signs of slowing.
Based on draw patterns, pool dynamics, and IRCC’s stated priorities under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, here’s what candidates in the Express Entry pool should expect for the rest of March.
Table of Contents
What We’ve Seen So Far in 2026
IRCC has conducted 11 Express Entry draws between January 1 and March 2, 2026.
| Date | Draw Type | ITAs Issued | CRS Cut-off |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 5 | Provincial Nominee Program | 574 | 711 |
| January 7 | Canadian Experience Class | 8,000 | 511 |
| January 20 | Provincial Nominee Program | 681 | 746 |
| January 21 | Canadian Experience Class | 6,000 | 509 |
| February 3 | Provincial Nominee Program | 423 | 749 |
| February 6 | French Language Proficiency | 8,500 | 400 |
| February 16 | Provincial Nominee Program | 279 | 789 |
| February 17 | Canadian Experience Class | 6,000 | 508 |
| February 19 | Physicians (NEW) | 391 | 169 |
| February 20 | Healthcare Occupations | 4,000 | 467 |
| March 2 | Provincial Nominee Program | 264 | 710 |
Total ITAs issued in 2026 through March 2: 35,112
The March 2 PNP draw is notable for one reason: the CRS cut-off of 710 is the lowest PNP threshold we’ve seen in 2026 even with low invitations to apply (ITAs).
This suggests a smaller pool of provincial nominees currently in the system, which could indicate provinces are still processing their 2026 nomination allocations.
The Express Entry Pool: Current State (March 1, 2026)
As of March 1, 2026, the Express Entry pool contains 232,534 candidates — down from approximately 235,695 in mid-February.
Here’s the current distribution:
| CRS score range | Number of candidates as of March 1, 2026 | Number of candidates as of Feb 15, 2026 | Number of candidates as of Feb 2, 2026 | Change since Feb 15, 2026 |
| 601-1200 | 258 | 280 | 423 | -22 |
| 501-600 | 14,031 | 16,559 | 14,911 | -2,528 |
| 451-500 | 71,680 | 73,609 | 74,811 | -1,929 |
| 491-500 | 13,321 | 13,504 | 13,586 | -183 |
| 481-490 | 12,678 | 13,248 | 13,417 | -570 |
| 471-480 | 15,415 | 16,531 | 16,617 | -1,116 |
| 461-470 | 15,099 | 15,426 | 15,791 | -327 |
| 451-460 | 15,167 | 14,900 | 15,400 | 267 |
| 401-450 | 65,868 | 64,305 | 68,262 | 1,563 |
| 441-450 | 14,334 | 14,142 | 14,700 | 192 |
| 431-440 | 14,481 | 14,239 | 14,923 | 242 |
| 421-430 | 12,746 | 12,425 | 13,267 | 321 |
| 411-420 | 12,511 | 12,183 | 13,197 | 328 |
| 401-410 | 11,796 | 11,316 | 12,175 | 480 |
| 351-400 | 53,727 | 53,650 | 53,276 | 77 |
| 301-350 | 18,694 | 19,009 | 18,949 | -315 |
| 0-300 | 8,276 | 8,283 | 8,288 | -7 |
| Total | 232,534 | 235,695 | 238,920 | -3,161 |
Key insight: The 501-600 range now contains 14,031 candidates — down 2,761 from mid-February and even lower by 880 compared to February 2, 2026.
This is the critical zone for CEC draws. With February’s CEC draw at CRS 508, approximately 13,321 candidates in the 491-500 range are just below the cut-off.
What this means for March:
- The 501-600 range is being depleted faster than it’s refilling
- CEC cut-offs have real momentum to drop below 500
- Candidates at 500-510 CRS are in strong position; those at 495-500 are now tagged as “competitive.”
The shrinking high-CRS pool means March CEC draws could be lower than 508 if the same number of ITAs (6,000) are sent on March 3-5, and another large draw after 2 weeks can push cut-offs near to the 500 level.
March 2026 Predictions by Program and Category
Based on current trends, IRCC priorities, and the updated pool composition, here are our program-by-program predictions for the rest of March 2026.
Canadian Experience Class (CEC)
Predicted draws remaining in March: 2
Predicted ITAs per draw: 5,000-7,000
Projected CRS cut-off range: 500-506
CEC remains IRCC’s primary vehicle for converting temporary residents to permanent residents.
The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan explicitly prioritizes “transitioning to permanent residence those who are already in Canada.”
| Recent CEC Draws | ITAs | CRS Cut-off |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 6,000 | 509 |
| Feb 17, 2026 | 6,000 | 508 |
| March (projected) | 12,000-14,000 | 500-506 |
The declining CRS trend continues. With the 501-600 range shrinking by 2,761 candidates since mid-February, a large draw could push cut-offs to around 500 for the first time since 2022.
Bottom line: If you’re CEC-eligible with a CRS score of 500+, you have a strong shot at an ITA in March.
Scores between 495-500 are now competitive given the shrinking high-CRS pool.
Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)
Predicted draws remaining in March: 2
Predicted ITAs per draw: 250-700
Projected CRS cut-off range: 690-720
The March 2 PNP draw delivered an interesting signal: a CRS cut-off of 710 with only 264 ITAs. This is the lowest PNP cut-off of 2026.
| 2026 PNP Draws | ITAs | CRS Cut-off |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 5 | 574 | 711 |
| Jan 20 | 681 | 746 |
| Feb 3 | 423 | 749 |
| Feb 16 | 279 | 789 |
| Mar 2 | 264 | 710 |
The low CRS cut-off of 710 suggests fewer nominees currently in the pool.
This makes sense — provinces are early in their 2026 nomination cycles, and many nominations from late 2025 have already been invited.
March projection (remaining draws):
| Metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Number of draws | 2 |
| Total ITAs | 500-700 |
| CRS cut-off range | 690-720 |
Key insight: The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan increased PNP targets from 55,000 to 91,500.
As provinces ramp up nominations through spring, we’ll see larger PNP draws with higher cut-offs.
March may be a quieter month for PNP as nomination pipelines rebuild.
If you’re pursuing a provincial nomination, March is an excellent time to apply. Provinces are ramping up nominations to meet their increased allocations.
French Language Proficiency
Predicted draws: 1-2
Predicted ITAs per draw: 5,000-8,500
Projected CRS cut-off range: 380-420
French language draws have exploded in 2026. The February 6 draw issued 8,500 ITAs — the largest French-language draw in Express Entry history — at a CRS cut-off of just 400.
| Year | French Language ITAs | Average CRS |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | ~23,000 | 450+ |
| 2025 | ~48,000 | 400-430 |
| 2026 (Jan-Feb) | 8,500 | 400 |
The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan targets 9% Francophone admissions outside Quebec.
IRCC has allocated approximately 17,000 spots specifically for French-proficiency category draws — a 15% increase over 2025.
March 2026 projection:
| Metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Number of draws | 1-2 |
| Total ITAs | 5,000-12,000 |
| CRS cut-off range | 380-420 |
Who qualifies: Candidates must demonstrate French language ability at CLB/NCLC level 7 or higher in all four skills (speaking, listening, reading, writing).
Test scores from TEF Canada or TCF Canada are accepted.
Strategic insight: If you have moderate French skills but haven’t tested, March is the time to book your TEF or TCF exam.
The CRS cut-off of 400 means candidates who wouldn’t stand a chance in general draws are receiving invitations.
Healthcare and Social Services Occupations
Predicted draws: 0-1
Predicted ITAs per draw: 3,000
Projected CRS cut-off range: 450-470
Healthcare remains a persistent priority for IRCC. The February 20 draw issued 4,000 ITAs at CRS 467 — significantly lower than CEC or general draws.
| Recent Healthcare Draws | ITAs | CRS Cut-off |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2026 | 4,000 | 467 |
| Jan 2026 | — | — |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3,000 | 476 |
| Nov 2025 | 3,500 | 481 |
The trend shows declining CRS cut-offs as IRCC increases draw sizes. With Canada facing a documented shortage of 60,000+ nurses and critical gaps in allied health professions, expect continued aggressive draws in this category.
March 2026 projection:
| Metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Number of draws | 0-1 |
| Total ITAs | 3,000 |
| CRS cut-off range | 450-470 |
Eligible occupations include: Registered nurses, licensed practical nurses, nurse aides, dental assistants, physiotherapists, occupational therapists, respiratory therapists, medical laboratory technicians, pharmacists, psychologists, social workers, and 25+ other health-related NOC codes.
Important change for 2026: The minimum work experience requirement increased from 6 months to 12 months for category-based draws.
Your experience can be gained in Canada or abroad, but must be within the past 3 years.
Physicians with Canadian Work Experience (NEW)
Predicted draws: 0-1 (but unlikely)
Predicted ITAs per draw: 300-500
Projected CRS cut-off range: 150-200
This is the wildcard category for March 2026.
IRCC launched the Physicians category on February 18, 2026, and held its first draw the very next day. The result? A CRS cut-off of 169 — the lowest in Express Entry history.
| Draw | Date | ITAs | CRS Cut-off |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Physicians Draw | Feb 19, 2026 | 391 | 169 |
The extremely low cut-off reflects the small pool of eligible candidates. To qualify, you must:
- Have at least 12 months of Canadian work experience as a physician (within past 3 years)
- Work in eligible occupations: General practitioners/family physicians (NOC 31102), Specialists in surgery (NOC 31101), or Specialists in clinical/laboratory medicine (NOC 31100)
This is a targeted pathway for foreign-trained doctors already working in Canada on temporary permits.
The pool is small, so nearly all eligible candidates will receive invitations.
March 2026 projection:
| Metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Number of draws | 0-1 |
| Total ITAs | 300 |
| CRS cut-off range | 150-200 |
If you’re a physician with Canadian work experience who hasn’t entered the Express Entry pool yet, do so immediately.
With CRS cut-offs this low, you’re virtually guaranteed an invitation.
Trades Occupations
Predicted draws: 0-1
Predicted ITAs per draw: 2,000-4,000
Projected CRS cut-off range: 380-430
Trades draws were less frequent in January-February 2026 than in 2025, but the category remains active.
IRCC announced plans to admit up to 14,000 construction workers in 2026, and trades continue to be highlighted in category-based selection priorities.
March 2026 projection:
| Metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Number of draws | 0-1 |
| Total ITAs | 2,000-4,000 |
| CRS cut-off range | 380-430 |
Eligible occupations include: Carpenters, electricians, plumbers, welders, heavy equipment operators, industrial mechanics, construction millwrights, and other skilled trades identified in IRCC’s priority list.
STEM Occupations
Predicted draws: 0-1
Predicted ITAs per draw: 2,000-4,000
Projected CRS cut-off range: 470-500
STEM draws have been less frequent in early 2026, but the category is expected to return.
IRCC continues to prioritize tech workers, engineers, and science professionals to support Canada’s innovation economy.
March 2026 projection:
| Metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Number of draws | 0-1 |
| Total ITAs | 0-4,000 |
| CRS cut-off range | 470-500 |
STEM cut-offs tend to be higher than other category-based draws because the pool of eligible STEM candidates includes many high-CRS profiles with Canadian work experience and strong language scores.
Education Occupations
Predicted draws: 0-1
Predicted ITAs per draw: 1,000-2,000
Projected CRS cut-off range: 440-470
Education draws target teachers, early childhood educators, and educational counsellors.
These draws have been less frequent but remain part of IRCC’s category-based selection toolkit.
March 2026 projection:
| Metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Number of draws | 0-1 |
| Total ITAs | 0-2,000 |
| CRS cut-off range | 440-470 |
Including the March 2 PNP draw (264 ITAs), March 2026 could see total invitations of around 20,000.
When to Expect Next Express Entry Draws in March 2026
IRCC typically holds draws on Wednesdays and Thursdays. The March 2 draw (Sunday) was unusual, suggesting IRCC may be experimenting with timing.
Predicted Express Entry draw dates for remaining March 2026:
| Week | Likely Draw Days | Expected Draw Types |
|---|---|---|
| Week 1 (Mar 3-7) | Wed/Thu | CEC, French, Healthcare |
| Week 3 (Mar 16-20) | Wed/Thu | PNP, CEC, French |
| Week 5 (Mar 30-31) | Mon | PNP, CEC, French |
IRCC does not announce draws in advance. Results are published on the official Express Entry rounds page within hours of each draw.
What CRS Score Do You Need?
The honest answer depends entirely on which draw type you’re eligible for.
| Your Situation | Minimum Competitive CRS | Realistic Path |
|---|---|---|
| CEC-eligible, no special category | 500+ | Wait for CEC draw |
| French CLB 7+ in all skills | 380+ | French category draw |
| Healthcare occupation (12+ months) | 450+ | Healthcare category draw |
| Physician in Canada (12+ months) | Any score | Physicians category draw |
| Trades occupation (12+ months) | 380+ | Trades category draw |
| Provincial nomination in hand | 90-120 | PNP draw (guaranteed) |
The strategic takeaway: If you’re stuck in the 450-500 CRS range with no category eligibility, your two best options are:
- Pursue a provincial nomination — adds 600 CRS points
- Learn French — opens access to French category draws at CRS 380-410
How to Prepare for March 2026 Draws
If you’re already in the pool:
- Verify your profile accuracy — incorrect information can lead to refusal
- Ensure all documents (ECA, language tests, work references) remain valid
- Update your profile immediately if circumstances change
- Prepare supporting documents now so you’re ready when an ITA arrives
If you’re not yet in the pool:
- Book your language test (IELTS, CELPIP, TEF, TCF) immediately
- Complete your Educational Credential Assessment
- Gather work reference letters following IRCC’s format requirements
- Enter the pool before the next draw — you can’t receive an ITA if you’re not in the system
If you received an ITA:
- You have exactly 60 days to submit a complete application
- Missing the deadline results in automatic cancellation
- Prepare all documents before you receive the ITA — 60 days goes fast
March 2026 is positioning to be one of the strongest months for Express Entry this year.
The pool has contracted slightly to 232,534 candidates, and IRCC’s aggressive draw pace continues.
For CEC candidates with scores in the 500+ range, March offers realistic hope for an invitation.
For those with French language skills, healthcare experience, or trades backgrounds, CRS cut-offs in the 380-475 range make invitations accessible to a much wider pool.
The March 2 PNP draw’s low CRS cut-off of 710 signals that provincial nominee inventory is temporarily lower — good news for candidates actively working towards securing nominations, as competition is reduced.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
When is the next Express Entry draw in March 2026?
The next Express Entry draw is expected during the week of March 3-7, likely targeting the Canadian Experience Class followed by French or Healthcare. IRCC typically holds draws on Wednesdays or Thursdays, though timing can vary.
What CRS score do I need for a CEC draw in March 2026?
Based on current trends, CEC draws in March 2026 will likely have CRS cut-offs between 501 and 508. The February 17 draw had a cut-off of 508. With the 501-600 range shrinking by 2,761 candidates since mid-February (from 16,792 to 14,031), large draws could push cutoffs around 500 for the first time since 2022.
I have French language skills but my CRS is only 410. Do I have a chance?
Yes, the February 6, 2026 French language draw had a CRS cut-off of just 400, and we project March French draws in the 380-410 range.
Why was the March 2 PNP draw CRS cut-off so low at 710?
The CRS cut-off of 710 is the lowest PNP threshold in 2026. This reflects a temporarily smaller pool of provincial nominees in the Express Entry system. Provinces are early in their 2026 nomination cycles, and many 2025 nominees have already received invitations. As provincial nomination activity increases through spring, we expect PNP cut-offs to rise.
How many total ITAs will IRCC issue in March 2026?
Based on January-February patterns (35,112 ITAs through March 2), we project March 2026 will see around 20,000 total invitations across all draw types. The actual number depends on how aggressively IRCC pursues its 2026 admissions targets through CEC and category-based draws.
Disclaimer: The Express Entry draw predictions, CRS cut-off estimates, and ITA projections in this article are based on historical draw patterns, current pool data from IRCC, and publicly available information about the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan. This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered immigration advice.
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