New Express Entry Draw Predictions And Expectations For February 2026

Last Updated On 29 January 2026, 10:15 AM EST (Toronto Time)

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Canada’s Express Entry system is entering February 2026 with one big storyline: sustained, high-volume Canadian Experience Class Express Entry draws are finally putting real downward pressure on the top end of the pool.

The last invitation round was the January 21, 2026 Canadian Experience Class draw that issued 6,000 Invitations to Apply at a CRS cutoff of 509.

If IRCC maintains the same operating rhythm seen since October 27, 2025, you should expect a familiar sequence next week.

A Provincial Nominee Program draw early in the week, a CEC draw later in the same week, and then possibly a category-based draw on some weeks.

This article lays out what that likely looks like in early February, what the CRS math suggests, and expected cutoff ranges for each draw type, using the most recent pool composition snapshot plus observed draw behaviour since late October.

Key takeaways for February 2026

February is most likely to open with a PNP draw and then a CEC draw, based on the post-October pattern.
CEC cutoffs are trending down because IRCC has removed 14,000 CEC candidates in January through two mega-draws (8,000 and 6,000) at 511 and 509.
The January 19 pool snapshot showed 16,341 candidates in the 501–600 band and 677 candidates in the 601–1200 band, which frames where CEC and PNP draws invited candidates on January 21, 2026.
The Express Entry pool fills fast with new profiles as soon as candidates become eligible and optimism surrounding large rounds of invitations.
A “below 500” CEC cutoff is possible in February, but it is not guaranteed. It depends on the draw size staying large and on how many fresh 500+ profiles enter the pool each week.

Where could the pool be now with new Express Entry profiles?

The most useful way to predict February cutoffs is to start with the last “clean” pool snapshot we have before the January 20 and January 21 draws.

The CRS score distribution as of January 19, 2026 (total pool 237,120) shows a strong buildup in the 451-500 range with the addition of over 4,000 new profiles over the last 3 available CRS score distributions.

Highest number of new profiles created is between 471-480 at 1,106 followed by 491-500 at 963.

Good news is that the 501-600 pool saw a reduction of 5,451 profiles, which matters the most for the upcoming Express Entry draw in February 2026.

However, we need to understand that with 13,000 ITAs issued since December 14, 2025 reduction in profiles between 501-600 was only half of it.

Yes, this is how fast the Express Entry pool fills up with new profiles.

Based on this assumption, we can assume that nearly 3,000 profiles would have been reduced from the 501-600 range since the last CEC draw, even though 6,000 ITAs were issued.

This brings the number of candidates in this range to around 13,341.

CRS score range	Number of candidates (Jan 19, 2026)	Number of candidates (Jan 4, 2026)	Number of candidates (Dec 14, 2025	Change since Dec 14, 2025
601-1200	677	559	390	287
501-600	16,341	21,013	21,792	-5,451
451-500	72,714	70,523	68,700	4,014
491-500	13,278	12,873	12,315	963
481-490	12,942	12,499	12,149	793
471-480	15,965	15,435	14,859	1,106
461-470	15,320	14,881	14,535	785
451-460	15,209	14,835	14,842	367
401-450	66,836	65,120	66,948	-112
441-450	14,452	14,139	13,992	460
431-440	14,571	14,285	14,244	327
421-430	13,092	12,816	12,750	342
411-420	12,863	12,442	12,367	496
401-410	11,858	11,438	13,595	-1,737
351-400	53,221	52,469	52,574	647
301-350	19,062	18,745	18,829	233
0-300	8,269	8,125	8,069	200
Total	237,120	236,554	237,302	-182

Two things matter immediately for February forecasting:

CEC draws mainly pull from the top band above the cutoff, which usually sits inside the 501–600 segment when CEC cutoffs are around 500.
PNP draws pull from candidates with a nomination, which pushes scores into the 600+ band. In practical terms, most PNP invitees live in the 680–1200 range.

The pattern assumptions to predict next Express Entry draw and CRS cutoffs

Generally, “next draw” predictions are to treat Express Entry like a calendar event that happens every two weeks on the same weekday, but it is not always true.

IRCC does not publish a fixed schedule, and timing can shift for operational reasons, policy changes, or simply because they want to run multiple rounds in a single week.

What is stable, and therefore forecastable, is pattern behaviour.

Since October 27, 2025, the draw sequence frequently looks like this:

Start of week: Provincial Nominee Program round
Mid-week: Canadian Experience Class round
Optional: category-based round later in the week or in the following week (on/off)

The draw list confirms that rhythm repeatedly:

Date	Round type	Invitations issued	CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited
January 21, 2026	Canadian Experience Class	6,000	509
January 20, 2026	Provincial Nominee Program	681	746
January 7, 2026	Canadian Experience Class	8,000	511
January 5, 2026	Provincial Nominee Program	574	711
December 17, 2025	French language proficiency (Version 1)	6,000	399
December 16, 2025	Canadian Experience Class	5,000	515
December 15, 2025	Provincial Nominee Program	399	731
December 11, 2025	Healthcare and social services occupations (Version 2)	1,000	476
December 10, 2025	Canadian Experience Class	6,000	520
December 8, 2025	Provincial Nominee Program	1,123	729
November 28, 2025	French language proficiency (Version 1)	6,000	408
November 26, 2025	Canadian Experience Class	1,000	531
November 25, 2025	Provincial Nominee Program	777	699
November 14, 2025	Healthcare and social services occupations (Version 2)	3,500	462
November 12, 2025	Canadian Experience Class	1,000	533
November 10, 2025	Provincial Nominee Program	714	738
October 29, 2025	French language proficiency (Version 1)	6,000	416
October 28, 2025	Canadian Experience Class	1,000	533
October 27, 2025	Provincial Nominee Program	302	761

So the assumption for early February 2026 is expected to be consistent with observed operations.

February 2026 Express Entry Draw forecast calendar

Below is a practical “expectations map” for early February, using your assumed schedule window and the post-October operating rhythm.

Forecast table: likely draw sequence and CRS ranges

Expected window (ET)	Most likely round type	Typical ITAs based on recent pattern	Predicted CRS cutoff range	Why this range is realistic
Feb 2–3, 2026	PNP	400–900	715–755	PNP cutoffs swing with nomination mix; recent PNP rounds have ranged 699–761
Feb 3–4, 2026	CEC	4,000–7,000	503–507	January’s big CEC rounds dropped from 515 to 511 to 509
Feb 4–6, 2026 (optional)	Category-based (French or healthcare most likely)	1,000–6,000	French: 395–410, Healthcare: 470–485	Recent French rounds were 416, 408, 399; healthcare rounds were 462 and 476

The historic cutoffs that anchor these ranges come from IRCC’s previous official rounds list.

Why a 502–507 range is credible from the pool snapshot

On January 19, there were 16,341 candidates in the 501–600 range. One major CEC draw ran after that snapshot: January 21: 6,000 ITAs at 509

This draw alone can remove a large chunk of the 500+ portion of the pool, and not just above 509. In real life, the invite list will include:

candidates above the cutoff who were already waiting
candidates who gained points recently (new work experience month, language test updates, spouse points changes)
candidates who entered the pool after January 19 but still had scores high enough to be invited

So yes, new profiles are created, and some candidates enter the pool in the 500+ zone every week. That inflow is the main uncertainty in a February CEC cutoff prediction.

But the direction remains downward as long as:

draw sizes stay large (4,000+), and
IRCC runs CEC rounds frequently enough that the pool cannot fully refill above the cutoff between draws.

The “below 500” question: could it happen in February?

It is possible, but you should present it as a probability-based scenario.

A cutoff below 500 becomes plausible if IRCC runs another large CEC round in early February and then follows with one more large CEC round in mid-February.
A cutoff below 500 becomes unlikely if IRCC reduces CEC round size back to 1,000–2,000 or skips a CEC round in February.

This is the exact pivot point: frequency plus volume.

Why February 2026 cutoffs could move faster than most people expect

February often becomes a “momentum month” in Express Entry when IRCC starts the year with a clear draw strategy and then keeps repeating it.

Recent dataset shows a strategy shift that began in late 2025 near the new immigration levels plan 2026-2028 and strengthened in January 2026:

Regular PNP rounds to absorb nominated candidates
Repeated CEC rounds to prioritize in-Canada workers
Periodic category-based rounds that target policy priorities

When that machine runs consistently, it creates compounding effects:

1) Volume extraction creates cutoff momentum

A 1,000-ITA CEC round often barely dents the 500+ segment. A 6,000 to 8,000-ITA CEC round does.

January’s 14,000 CEC ITAs in three weeks is not normal. It is a statement.

2) The 501–600 band is the battleground

With 16,341 candidates in 501–600 on January 19, this band is both large enough to sustain multiple draws and small enough that two or three big rounds can change the cutoff quickly.

If IRCC continues pulling from this band at scale, the cutoff pressure will eventually spill below 500.

3) New profile creation is the wildcard, but not a deal-breaker

It is correct to emphasize that new profiles are created continuously. That inflow matters most in two cases:

when cutoffs hover around 500 and many candidates can cross the threshold via small point gains
when demand surges for Canadian work experience profiles because of seasonal hiring or changes in candidate behavior

But inflow has to be very strong to fully offset repeated 5,000–8,000 candidate removals.

CRS cutoff predictions for February 2026

Here are the expected predictions, while factoring in the uncertainty.

Predicted next three draws (base-case forecast)

PNP draw (Feb 2–3): CRS 715–755, about 500–800 ITAs
CEC draw (Feb 4–5): CRS 503–507, about 5,000–6,000 ITAs
Category draw (optional, Feb 6–10):
- French: CRS 395–410 if it is a 6,000-ITA round
- Healthcare: CRS 470–485 if it is a 1,000–2,000-ITA round

If IRCC reduces CEC volume

CEC could rebound upward into the 510–520 zone even in February because smaller draws do not remove enough candidates to keep the floor from falling.

If IRCC stays aggressive

A mid-February CEC round could push into the 498–503 range, especially if early February remains at 5,000+ ITAs and the pool does not refill above 500 quickly enough.

This is the correct way to talk about “below 500.” It is a scenario driven by volume and frequency, not a promise.

What candidates should watch in the first week of February

Signals that support falling CEC cutoffs

Another CEC round at 5,000+ ITAs
A cutoff that drops again from 509 into the 505–507 zone
A short gap between rounds (7–14 days)

Signals that weaken the “below 500” narrative

IRCC pauses CEC for a week
CEC round size shrinks to around 1,000–2,000
Category rounds absorb IRCC’s weekly invitation capacity, leaving CEC smaller

Signals that change the PNP outlook

A sudden increase in PNP ITAs (1,000+)
A lower-than-expected PNP cutoff near 699–715, which would suggest IRCC is clearing deeper into nominated candidates (similar to November 25, 2025 at 699).

February 2026 is expected to be a momentum month for Express Entry, mainly because IRCC has already demonstrated a repeatable pattern: PNP first, then CEC, and sometimes a category-based draw to finish the week.

If that pattern holds and CEC draw sizes remain large, the most realistic early-February outcome is a CEC cutoff moving into the low 500s, with a credible path toward the high 490s later in 2026 under an “aggressive volume” scenario.

At the same time, PNP cutoffs should remain volatile in the low 700s to mid 700s because nomination flow, not general pool depth, drives those results.

The clean way to position this prediction today is simple: expect another PNP round early next week, expect a CEC round later in the week, and treat category-based draws as an on/off add-on that can change the week’s CRS story without changing the long-term direction.

Disclaimer: These February 2026 Express Entry draw dates, formats, and CRS cutoffs are estimates based on recent patterns and pool data, and IRCC can change timing, draw type, invitation counts, or minimum scores at any time without notice.

Frequently asked questions (FAQs)

When is the next Express Entry draw in February 2026?

The February 2–4 window is a reasonable expectation based on recent cadence and external trackers, but it is not guaranteed. IRCC does not publish fixed dates in advance.

Can new profiles push the CEC cutoff back up?

Yes, but the inflow has to be strong enough to replace thousands of high-scoring candidates removed by large draws. When CEC draw sizes remain high, the overall direction usually remains downward.

Which category-based draw is most likely next?

Recent rounds show French language proficiency and healthcare/social services have been active categories. Either could appear in February depending on IRCC priorities and operational planning.

Quelles sont les informations sur le dernier tirage d'Entrée express ?

Actuellement, il n'y a pas d'informations disponibles concernant le dernier tirage d'Entrée express. Cependant, des informations sur les délais de traitement des demandes sont accessibles. Pour des mises à jour sur les tirages, vous pouvez consulter les rondes d'invitations d'Entrée express sur le site officiel.

What are the latest Express Entry draw results for French-speaking candidates?

Currently, there is no updated information available regarding the latest Express Entry draw results specifically for French-speaking candidates. However, you can find information about processing times and other related details on the official IRCC website. For the most recent draw results, please check the Express Entry rounds page.

What will the CRS score be for the next draw?

The exact CRS score for the upcoming draw is not available, but trends suggest it may decrease, particularly for the Canadian Experience Class (CEC). It is possible that the score could fall below 500, depending on factors such as the size of the draw and the number of new profiles entering the pool. Recent draws had scores of 511 and 509 in January 2026. The February draw may start with a Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) draw, followed by a CEC draw, which could influence the scores.

What are the CRS score trends for February 2026?

In February 2026, trends indicate a potential decrease in Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) scores, particularly for the Canadian Experience Class (CEC). Following significant draws in January, scores may drop below 500, depending on the number of new profiles entering the pool and the size of upcoming draws. As of mid-January, there were over 16,000 candidates in the 501-600 score range. Anticipated draws include provincial nominee program (PNP) candidates early in the week, followed by CEC draws later. For updates, check the Express Entry rounds.

What are the trends for CRS scores in February 2026?

In February 2026, trends indicate a decrease in Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) scores, particularly for Canadian Experience Class (CEC) candidates. The most recent CEC draw issued 6,000 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) with a cutoff of 509, the lowest since 2022. The candidate pool shows a significant reduction in those scoring above 500, suggesting potential for cutoffs to drop below 500 in upcoming draws. February is expected to feature a Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) draw early in the month, followed by another CEC draw with predicted cutoffs between 503 and 507. For more information, check the Express Entry rounds.

What does downward pressure mean in economics?

Downward pressure refers to external factors that lead to a decline in prices, performance, or other metrics. In economic contexts, it describes influences that result in lower values or diminished outcomes. For instance, an increase in the supply of a product can create downward pressure on its price, causing it to decrease. This term can also indicate a broader trend of worsening conditions or reduced activity in various sectors, including the economy and market performance.

Can I obtain a provincial nomination letter after receiving an ITA from IRCC?

To obtain a provincial nomination letter after receiving an Invitation to Apply (ITA) from IRCC, you must first verify your current immigration status and ensure your Express Entry profile is active. Each province has specific eligibility criteria for its Provincial Nominee Program (PNP), which may include having a job offer or relevant skills in demand. If eligible, you can apply through the province's PNP portal. A provincial nomination can enhance your Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score, aiding your permanent residency application through Express Entry.

Comment s'inscrire au système d'Entrée express de l'IRCC ?

Pour vous inscrire au système d'Entrée express ou obtenir des informations sur les demandes d'immigration au Canada, visitez le site officiel de l'IRCC à l'adresse suivante : IRCC - Entrée express. Ce site fournit des détails sur le processus d'inscription, les critères d'admissibilité et des instructions pour créer un profil d'Entrée express.

How to apply for a job at Parks Canada?

To apply for a job at Parks Canada, first prepare an updated CV that highlights your relevant skills and experiences. Next, visit the Parks Canada job listings to find a suitable position. Submit your application by emailing your CV through the 'Apply' button on the job posting. Ensure your application is submitted before the specified deadline, which for some positions is February 8, 2026, at 11:59 PM. If selected, you will be contacted for an interview, so research the organization and the role beforehand. Eligibility requires you to be a full-time or part-time student in a college or university program or returning to studies in fall 2026, and you must reside in Canada with work authorization.

What are my chances with a CRS score of 481?

With a CRS score of 481, your chances of receiving an invitation in upcoming Express Entry draws depend on the draw type, size, and the candidate pool. Recent Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draws have had cutoffs around 509, but there is speculation that future draws may drop below 500, especially if larger draws occur. Monitoring the Express Entry rounds and announcements from IRCC will be essential for understanding your prospects.

Kamal Deep Singh, RCIC

Kamal Deep Singh, RCIC (Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant) licensed by CICC (formerly known as ICCRC) with member number R708618. He brings extensive knowledge of immigration law and new changes to rapidly evolving IRCC.