Last Updated On 15 April 2024, 4:48 AM EDT (Toronto Time)
Immigration Minister Marc Miller says he will be evaluating the number of international students and other non-permanent residents entering Canada as political tensions rise about the relationship between the housing crisis and immigration.
Miller stated in an interview on January 14 on Rosemary Barton Live that the relationship between housing and immigration is complex, and it was considered around the cabinet table when setting annual targets for the number of people entering the country.
“Housing has and continues to be a concern, especially in a post-COVID scenario with rising interest rates, supply challenges, and affordability issues,” Miller told CBC chief political correspondent Rosemary Barton on Sunday.
“It isn’t immigrants that raised interest rates, but volume is volume and it’s something that we need to look at.” Miller said
Canada is facing significant issues in terms of housing affordability. The Conservative opposition has attempted to cast responsibility on the Liberal administration by tying government deficits to rising interest rates.
“My common-sense plan is to cut waste and cap spending to balance the budget so we can have more affordable interest rates,” Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said at an event in Thunder Bay, Ontario, on Friday.
“And secondly, to tie the number of dollars cities get for infrastructure to the number of homes they allow to be built.”
Polls indicate a shift in Canadians’ attitudes toward immigration and housing, with a large majority believing that more people coming together are compounding the housing affordability crisis and putting pressure on the health-care system.
Temporary Residents Are Scapegoats
In November, the government announced that, following many previous hikes to its annual immigration targets, it will maintain a goal of 500,000 new permanent residents by 2026.
These are still the historical high levels of immigration targets, but there have never been any targets ever set for temporary residents.
Miller also stated that his efforts in the coming months would focus on temporary residents.
“I think the challenge with the non-permanent resident targets is that there are none,” he said, adding that restricting temporary workers might have major economic consequences.
“We have to take a look at that and rein it in in many areas, but we need to be clear about what that means, exactly.”
He proposed modifying postgraduate work permits or “really controlling the volume” of non-permanent residents.
Miller stated that the federal government intended to intervene in a market where certain actors were exchanging long-term pain in the housing market for short-term financial gain.
“I don’t want to be crass about this, but the federal government is the only actor here not making money off this,” Miller went on to say.
He stated that some provinces needed to be prepared to make changes, and he looked forward to working with them.
“We need to let them know that the bar is closed, and we need to figure this out. And it’s shared jurisdiction; if they don’t comply, the federal government is ready to act.”
Blocking Temporary Resident Admissions May Deepen the Recession in Canada
Over the past year, Canada’s population has grown significantly, thanks largely to foreign workers and international students.
However, as the federal government considers banning non-permanent residents (NPR), new research by Desjardins states that such a step would “deepen the recession expected in 2024.”
The analysis, which Randall Bartlett, senior director of Canadian economics at Desjardins, released on Wednesday, predicts a natural decline in the number of NPRs as the economy weakens.
According to current baseline predictions, Bartlett anticipates real GDP growth to slow to 0.1% in 2024, down from 1.1% the previous year.
However, if the federal government implements new rules aimed at reducing NPR admissions to zero, the paper estimates that Canada’s real GDP will drop by 0.7% in 2024.
Furthermore, such a move could “blunt the subsequent recovery” from the recession, resulting in reduced potential GDP.
“As such, caution is warranted on the part of policymakers to minimize the economic downside of slowing newcomer arrivals too quickly,” Bartlett wrote in his paper.
If Canada doubled its NRP admissions from its present rate, Bartlett believes the GDP might increase by 1% this year and much more in the coming years.
However, the paper states that “sustained high levels of NPR admissions” may strain home affordability and raise inflation, forcing the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates higher for longer.
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