Canada’s Population Soars To 41.5 Million, But Growth Stalls

Last Updated On 29 March 2025, 10:05 AM EDT (Toronto Time)

As of January 1, 2025, Canada’s population officially climbed to 41,528,680, marking a modest increase of 63,382 people from October 1, 2024.

This quarterly growth of 0.2% reflects a notable slowdown compared to earlier quarters of the year, driven largely by a decline in non-permanent residents and tighter immigration policies introduced by the Canadian government in 2024.

While international migration continues to fuel nearly all of Canada’s population growth, shifting trends in interprovincial migration, natural increase, and regional disparities paint a complex picture of a nation at a demographic crossroads.

This in-depth analysis explores the latest population data, uncovering the forces shaping Canada’s growth trajectory, from the Prairie provinces’ rapid expansion to the Atlantic region’s surprising declines.

Canada’s Population Growth: A Closer Look at the Numbers

Canada’s population growth has long been a story of resilience, driven predominantly by international migration rather than natural increase (births minus deaths).

The fourth quarter of 2024, spanning October to December, saw the country add 63,382 new residents, bringing the total to 41,528,680 as of January 1, 2025.

Geography	Total Population
Canada	41,528,680
Ontario	16,182,641
Quebec	9,111,629
British Columbia	5,722,318
Alberta	4,960,097
Manitoba	1,504,023
Saskatchewan	1,250,909
Nova Scotia	1,079,627
New Brunswick	858,963
Newfoundland and Labrador	545,579
Prince Edward Island	179,280
Yukon	47,126
Northwest Territories	45,074
Nunavut	41,414

While this figure represents a positive gain, the quarterly growth rate of 0.2% is significantly lower than earlier in 2024, when the population surged by 254,014 in Q2 and 250,229 in Q3.

Historically, the fourth quarter tends to be a slower period for population growth. Seasonal factors—fewer births, higher deaths during the colder months, and reduced international migration—typically temper gains.

The 0.2% growth rate aligns with pre-pandemic trends, where quarterly increases between 2009 and 2019 ranged from 0.0% to 0.3%.

However, the latest data reveals a critical shift: a decline in non-permanent residents, a group that has been a cornerstone of Canada’s population boom recently.

Temporary Residents: A Key Driver Takes a Hit

Non-permanent residents—temporary workers, international students, and asylum claimants—have been a vital component of Canada’s demographic growth.

On January 1, 2025, their numbers stood at 3,020,936, accounting for 7.3% of the total population.

This marks a slight drop from 3,049,277 (7.4%) on October 1, 2024, with a net decrease of 28,341 individuals in the fourth quarter.

This decline is the first quarterly drop since Q4 2021 (-15,299) and the largest since Q3 2020 (-67,698), when pandemic-related border restrictions stifled migration.

The reduction in Q4 2024 reflects a broader policy shift by the Canadian government, which announced measures in 2024 to limit the influx of non-permanent residents.

These policies aim to ease pressures on housing, healthcare, and infrastructure amid rapid population growth in prior years.

Throughout 2024, the number of non-permanent residents grew by 291,165, a stark contrast to the 820,766 increase in 2023.

Most of this growth occurred in the first half of the year, with net gains of 154,483 in Q1 and 117,836 in Q2.

The second half, however, saw a sharp slowdown, with only 18,846 added, including the Q4 decline.

Geography	Q4 2024 Net non-permanent residents	Q4 2024 Non-permanent residents, inflows	Q4 2024 Non-permanent residents, outflows
Canada	-28,341	184,495	212,836
Ontario	-30,524	71,272	101,796
British Columbia	-6,063	32,545	38,608
Nova Scotia	-1,480	3,199	4,679
Newfoundland and Labrador	-503	1,290	1,793
Prince Edward Island	-219	760	979
New Brunswick	-101	2,496	2,597
Nunavut	-24	23	47
Northwest Territories	71	119	48
Yukon	84	200	116
Manitoba	493	6,083	5,590
Saskatchewan	1,418	4,038	2,620
Quebec	1,875	41,895	40,020
Alberta	6,632	20,575	13,943

This trend suggests that Canada’s immigration landscape is entering a new phase, one shaped by tighter controls and shifting global dynamics.

Regional Disparities: Winners and Losers in Q4 2024

Canada’s population growth is far from uniform, with stark regional variations emerging in the latest data.

The Prairie provinces—Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba—emerged as the fastest-growing regions in Q4 2024, while three of the four Atlantic provinces recorded rare population losses.

Alberta solidified its status as Canada’s growth engine, posting a 0.6% increase (+28,496 people) in Q4 2024, bringing its population to 4,960,097.

This growth was fueled by a combination of international migration, a net gain of 5,292 interprovincial migrants, and a robust natural increase (12,664 births vs. 9,468 deaths).

Alberta’s appeal—strong job markets in energy and technology, coupled with relatively affordable housing—continues to attract both domestic and international newcomers.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba followed with growth rates of 0.3% each. Saskatchewan added 4,218 residents, reaching 1,250,909, while Manitoba crossed a milestone with its population surpassing 1.5 million (1,504,023) after gaining 4,042 people.

These provinces benefited from steady international migration and positive natural increases, though their interprovincial migration gains were modest.

Interprovincial Migration: Alberta Shines, Ontario Struggles

Interprovincial migration, the movement of people between provinces and territories, followed seasonal trends in Q4 2024, with 46,980 individuals relocating—fewer than in the previous quarters (80,538 in Q3, 115,080 in Q2).

Geography	Q4 2024 In-Migrants	Q4 2024 Out-Migrants	Total In-Migrants	Total Out-Migrants	Net Change
Canada	46,980	46,980	330,818	330,818	0
Alberta	13,074	7,782	90,835	54,753	36,082
Nova Scotia	2,776	2,432	19,071	17,158	1,913
New Brunswick	2,291	2,039	14,928	13,745	1,183
Newfoundland and Labrador	822	832	7178	7,126	52
Yukon	169	199	1618	1,648	-30
Nunavut	169	105	1620	1,672	-52
Prince Edward Island	440	638	4112	4,221	-109
Northwest Territories	234	277	2001	2,203	-202
Quebec	3,667	4,631	27,356	29,257	-1,901
Manitoba	1,973	2,525	15,468	18,455	-2,987
Saskatchewan	2,098	3,252	16,603	21,055	-4,452
British Columbia	7,970	8,852	56,171	62,083	-5,912
Ontario	11,297	13,416	73,857	97,442	-23,585

This figure aligns with pre-pandemic levels but falls short of the highs seen in 2021-2023.

Alberta once again led with a net gain of 5,292 migrants, attracting 13,074 in-migrants while losing 7,782.

For the full year, Alberta’s net gain of 36,082 interprovincial migrants was the largest in Canada, though smaller than its 2023 peak of 42,243.

Nova Scotia (+344), New Brunswick (+252), and Nunavut (+64) were the only other regions to see net gains in Q4.

Ontario, however, faced the largest net loss, shedding 23,585 residents to other provinces in 2024, with 11,297 in-migrants dwarfed by 13,416 out-migrants in Q4 alone.

High living costs and housing shortages may be driving this exodus, particularly to Alberta and the Atlantic provinces.

Quebec’s net loss of 1,901 in 2024 was its smallest since 2003, signalling a potential stabilization in its interprovincial migration trends.

Atlantic Provinces Face Setbacks

In contrast, the Atlantic provinces of Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, and Nova Scotia experienced population declines in Q4 2024—a rarity since 2020.

Newfoundland and Labrador lost 301 residents (-0.1%), dropping to 545,579, while Prince Edward Island shed 21 people (-0.0%) to 179,280, and Nova Scotia saw a decline of 49 (-0.0%) to 1,079,627.

These losses stem from multiple factors: decreases in non-permanent residents, negative natural increases (more deaths than births), fewer new immigrants, and either losses or minimal gains from interprovincial migration.

For instance, Newfoundland and Labrador recorded 800 births against 1,752 deaths, while Nova Scotia saw 2,045 births overshadowed by 3,102 deaths.

These patterns echo pre-pandemic trends, suggesting a return to historical norms after a period of growth spurred by pandemic-era migration shifts.

The territories—Yukon (+0.4%, 47,126), Nunavut (+0.4%, 41,414), and the Northwest Territories (+0.3%, 45,074)—posted solid gains, driven by small but consistent inflows of migrants and natural increases.

Meanwhile, Ontario (+0.1%, 16,182,641) and British Columbia (+0.0%, 5,722,318) saw slower growth, while Quebec (+0.1%, 9,111,629) maintained steady progress, buoyed by international migration despite a net loss of 1,901 interprovincial migrants in 2024.

Emigration Numbers

Despite the slowdown, international migration accounted for 98.5% of Canada’s Q4 growth (+62,401 people) and 97.3% of the annual increase (+724,586).

In Q4 2024, Canada welcomed 103,481 immigrants, offset by 12,739 net emigrants and a loss of 28,341 non-permanent residents.

Over the year, the immigrant influx remained strong, though the decline in non-permanent residents tempered overall gains.

Geography	Q4 2024 Net emigration	Q4 2024 Emigrants	Q4 2024 Returning emigrants
Canada	12,739	24,533	11,794
Ontario	5,845	11,250	5,405
British Columbia	2,789	4,761	1,972
Alberta	1,662	3,257	1,595
Quebec	1,184	2,996	1,812
Manitoba	774	1,162	388
Saskatchewan	255	499	244
Nova Scotia	111	306	195
New Brunswick	57	169	112
Newfoundland and Labrador	24	59	35
Prince Edward Island	16	41	25
Yukon	8	17	9
Northwest Territories	8	10	2
Nunavut	6	6	0

The government’s 2024 policies to cap non-permanent residents appear to be taking effect, particularly in the second half of the year.

While inflows of non-permanent residents reached 184,495 in Q4, outflows hit 212,836, resulting in the net decline.

This contrasts with earlier quarters, where inflows consistently outpaced outflows, highlighting the impact of tightened regulations.

Natural Increase: Births Vs. Deaths

Canada’s natural increase remains a minor contributor to growth, with births (91,173) barely exceeding deaths (90,192) in Q4 2024, yielding a net gain of just 981 people.

This near-flat natural growth underscores the country’s reliance on migration, a trend mirrored in aging nations globally.

Regionally, Alberta (12,664 births vs. 9,468 deaths) and Manitoba (3,978 births vs. 3,582 deaths) posted positive natural increases, while Newfoundland and Labrador (800 births vs. 1,752 deaths) and Nova Scotia (2,045 births vs. 3,102 deaths) saw significant deficits.

Geography	Q4 2024 Births	Q4 2024 Deaths	Net Change
Canada	91,173	90,192	981
Alberta	12,664	9,468	3,196
Ontario	36,045	34,676	1,369
Manitoba	3,978	3,582	396
Saskatchewan	3,288	3,184	104
Nunavut	162	62	100
Northwest Territories	121	84	37
Yukon	89	87	2
Prince Edward Island	357	450	-93
British Columbia	10,847	11,078	-231
Quebec	19,200	20,100	-900
Newfoundland and Labrador	800	1,752	-952
New Brunswick	1,577	2,567	-990
Nova Scotia	2,045	3,102	-1,057

Canada’s population growth is slowing, but the nation remains a magnet for newcomers, with international migration sustaining its demographic vitality.

The decline in non-permanent residents and tighter immigration policies signal a strategic pivot, potentially easing strain on resources while reshaping regional dynamics.

Alberta’s rise, the Atlantic provinces’ setbacks, and Ontario’s challenges highlight a country in flux, balancing economic needs with social sustainability.

As Canada navigates these changes, the data offers a roadmap for policymakers, businesses, and citizens alike.

Will the Prairie provinces continue their ascent? Can the Atlantic region reverse its losses?

And how will immigration policies evolve in a post-2024 landscape? This data demonstrates that Canada cannot afford to reduce immigration in long-term.

Stay tuned as Canada’s demographic story unfolds.

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