Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab signalled on October 16 that Canada’s immigration levels will be potentially increasing, pointing to the country’s slowest population growth since the Second World War and the federal government’s economic ambitions as justification for a shift in direction.
Speaking at a press conference in Kitchener, Ontario, where she was announcing new Express Entry changes, Diab described recent immigration reductions as a deliberate step backward that could not continue indefinitely.
The existing 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan still holds permanent resident admissions at a flat 380,000 per year, and the minister declined to provide specific numbers.
That creates a direct tension between the government’s current, officially announced immigration targets and the direction Diab is now publicly suggesting.
The 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan, expected to be tabled in Parliament on November 2, 2026, will reveal whether these signals translate into higher admissions numbers or a more gradual recalibration of the system.
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What Minister Diab Said on October 16
Asked at the Kitchener press conference why immigration would soon increase despite ongoing housing affordability concerns, Diab cited population growth and said, “Our population increase, it was the slowest population growth since World War II.”
Explaining the economic case, Diab said, “And so we have an ambitious agenda. We are going to want to drive growth. We do need people.”
She added, “We also recognize we need people from outside the country to come and fill gaps that we cannot fill for the next decade or so.”
On housing affordability, Diab defended the government’s approach, saying that “asking rents nationally are down for 24 consecutive months.”
She also pointed to homebuilding, assistance for lower-income Canadians and tax reductions as measures intended to ease household pressures. The rent claim was made by the minister at the press conference.
Diab contrasted the need for international workers with efforts to encourage Canadians, particularly younger people, into apprenticeships and other occupations.
She indicated that future targets would be addressed through the next Immigration Levels Plan rather than announced at the press conference.
Diab did not specify whether the increase would apply to permanent residents, temporary residents, or both, nor did she identify a target number or timeframe.
Asked why the prime minister had discussed a possible increase with The New York Times before the official plan, Diab replied, “We will be announcing our immigration levels plan in November as it’s scheduled and has been scheduled for decades.”
Her remarks provide a public indication that Ottawa may be reconsidering the current 380,000-per-year permanent resident target ahead of the next Immigration Levels Plan.
What the Existing Immigration Targets Actually Say
Diab’s forward-looking comments sit against a set of targets that the federal government formally tabled less than a year ago and has not yet amended.
The 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan sets the following admissions targets:
| Immigration Category | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| Permanent Residents | 380,000 | 380,000 | 380,000 |
| New Temporary Resident Arrivals | 385,000 | 370,000 | 370,000 |
| Federal High Skilled (Express Entry) | 109,000 | 111,000 | 111,000 |
| Provincial Nominee Program | 91,500 | 92,500 | 92,500 |
| Family Reunification (Total) | 84,000 | 81,000 | 81,000 |
| Temporary Foreign Worker Program | 60,000 | 50,000 | 50,000 |
| International Mobility Program | 170,000 | 170,000 | 170,000 |
The plan represented a significant reduction from the Trudeau-era target of 500,000 permanent residents per year and a further step down from the 395,000 target for 2025.
Economic immigration dominates the plan’s composition at approximately 63% of admissions in 2026 and 64% in 2027 and 2028, the highest proportion in over a decade.
The target for new international student arrivals was reduced from approximately 306,000 under the previous plan to 155,000 in 2026.
The government’s stated goal is to reduce Canada’s non-permanent resident population to below 5% of the total population by the end of 2027.
Nothing in these targets has been formally revised, which is why Diab’s October 16 remarks are significant.
They indicate the government’s internal direction may already be diverging from the numbers it tabled in November 2025.
Prime Minister Carney’s Earlier Signal
Diab’s remarks built on comments Carney made in a September 2026 interview with The New York Times, where he stated that with Canada’s immigration system back under control, the federal government would begin considering when to resume a controlled population increase.
He characterized this as consistent with Canada’s identity as a nation built on immigration, while emphasizing that any upward adjustment would happen only once Ottawa was confident the system was functioning properly.
A spokesperson for Minister Diab’s office told The Canadian Press that the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan would ensure immigration remains at sustainable levels, without defining what a sustainable increase might look like.
The Conservative Party’s immigration critic, Michelle Rempel Garner, responded by calling for further reductions, stating that immigration levels need to go down rather than up.
Canada’s Population Growth Has Fallen to a Historic Low
The demographic data underlying Diab’s argument is where the analytical case for revisiting current targets becomes strongest.
Statistics Canada’s population estimates, released on September 23, 2026, confirmed that Canada’s population reached an estimated 41,798,407 on July 1, 2026.
The country gained just 189,425 people over the preceding year, a growth rate of 0.5%. That annual increase was the smallest in absolute terms since 1944–1945 and the weakest percentage growth since 1915–1916.
The scale of the reversal becomes clear when set against recent history:
| Period (July to July) | Population Gain | Growth Rate | Context |
| 2021–2022 | ~685,000 | 1.8% | Post-pandemic rebound begins |
| 2022–2023 | ~1,048,000 | 2.7% | Temporary resident surge |
| 2023–2024 | ~1,126,000 | 2.8% | Peak growth year |
| 2024–2025 | ~468,000 | 1.1% | Federal reductions take hold |
| 2025–2026 | 189,425 | 0.5% | Lowest since WWII |
Statistics Canada attributed the rapid changes almost entirely to shifts in international migration.
The number of non-permanent residents in Canada fell by approximately 155,000 over the year to July 2026, reaching roughly 2.78 million, or 6.7% of the total population.
Canada also welcomed 368,224 new permanent immigrants between July 2025 and July 2026, marking a fourth consecutive annual decline in permanent arrivals.
An Aging Population and a Shrinking Workforce
The population slowdown is not simply a matter of fewer arrivals.
Canada’s median age rose to 40.9 years and its average age to 42.1 years as of July 2026, with Statistics Canada noting that the country’s population is aging once again after temporarily appearing younger due to the influx of younger temporary residents in prior years.
Canada’s total fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.25 children per woman in 2024, well below the 2.1 replacement level required to sustain the population without immigration.
Canada’s labour force participation rate dropped to 64.8% in September 2026, its lowest reading outside the pandemic era in nearly three decades, a shift Statistics Canada attributes largely to population aging.
Immigration currently accounts for nearly all of Canada’s labour force growth.
Without sustained immigration, sectors facing persistent shortages in healthcare, construction, skilled trades, and technology would face even steeper recruitment challenges as Canada’s population continues to age and more workers move into retirement.
This is the core of Diab’s economic argument: a country that is simultaneously aging, shrinking its workforce, and reducing immigration cannot sustain the level of economic output needed to fund public pension systems like CPP and OAS or maintain healthcare staffing levels.
Why the Case for More Immigration Is Not Straightforward
The demographic pressures are real, but they do not exist in isolation.
Canada’s economy shed 68,300 jobs in September 2026, pushing the national unemployment rate back to where it stood at the beginning of the year, to 6.5%.
Youth unemployment is particularly elevated.
Workers aged 15 to 24 lost 48,000 positions in September alone, and the unemployment rate for that cohort stands near 13%, a level that has persisted for much of 2026.
Critics, including University of Waterloo labour economist Mikal Skuterud, have cautioned the Carney government against responding to business lobby pressure by using immigration to address a tight labour market, arguing that higher immigration during a period of weak domestic job growth risks intensifying competition for Canadian workers.
Housing affordability remains the most politically sensitive dimension of the immigration debate.
The rapid population growth between 2022 and 2024, driven largely by temporary residents, outpaced the rate of new housing construction and contributed to rising rental costs in major urban centres.
The federal government has positioned continued infrastructure investment, including the Housing Accelerator Fund and the Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund, as a precondition for any population increase, arguing that construction capacity must catch up before growth accelerates again.
The CD Howe Institute’s immigration advisory council has recommended that Canada continue shrinking immigration targets over the next three years, creating a direct policy tension between growth advocates and those prioritizing absorption capacity.
What the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan Could Change
The Immigration and Refugee Protection Act requires the government to table its annual immigration report, including the Immigration Levels Plan, by November 1 each year or within the next 30 parliamentary sitting days if Parliament is not sitting on that date.
IRCC has confirmed that work on the 2027–2029 plan is already underway, and the plan will set new targets for permanent and temporary resident admissions covering 2027, 2028, and 2029.
If the government follows through on the signals from both Carney and Diab, the plan could raise permanent resident targets above the current 380,000 annual target, potentially returning them toward 400,000 or higher.
There may also be adjustments to temporary resident reduction timelines if the population slowdown is viewed as excessive or economically damaging.
However, a return to the 500,000-per-year model that defined the Trudeau era appears unlikely.
Both Carney and Diab have framed any future increase as controlled and conditional on the system remaining manageable, a deliberate distinction from the open-ended growth that fuelled the 2022–2024 population surge.
The new plan will also need to address whether the 5%-of-population target for non-permanent residents, currently set for the end of 2027, remains achievable or will be extended.
What Higher Immigration Could Mean For Applicants and Canadians
Permanent resident applicants: If the 2027–2029 plan raises the Federal High Skilled or Provincial Nominee Program targets, IRCC would likely issue more invitations through Express Entry draws, potentially lowering CRS cutoff scores and expanding the number of candidates who receive permanent residency each year.
Temporary foreign workers: Any easing of the current reduction trajectory could benefit employers in sectors with persistent labour shortages and the workers filling those roles, though Diab gave no indication that temporary worker intake would increase.
International students: Study permit volumes were cut most aggressively under the current plan, and there has been no signal that student intake will rise.
Any future adjustment would likely remain tied to institutional capacity requirements and housing attestation rules that took effect in 2024.
Canadians: For residents concerned about housing, healthcare access, and infrastructure capacity, the government has framed any increase as conditional on continued investment in public services and construction.
Whether that investment keeps pace with renewed population growth will determine both the policy’s sustainability and its public reception.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Has Canada officially announced an increase in immigration targets?
No official increase has been announced. Minister Diab signalled on October 16, 2026, that immigration levels will be going up, and Prime Minister Carney stated in September that the government would pursue a controlled population increase, but neither specified new target numbers. The official targets will appear in the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan, subject to the statutory November 1 reporting deadline and the parliamentary sitting-day exception.
How severe is Canada’s population slowdown?
Canada’s population grew by just 189,425 people, or 0.5%, between July 2025 and July 2026, according to Statistics Canada. That was the smallest annual increase since 1944–1945 and the lowest percentage growth since 1915–1916, a dramatic reversal from the 2.8% peak growth recorded just two years earlier. Canada’s total fertility rate also fell to a record low of 1.25 children per woman in 2024, and the average age of the population now exceeds 42 years, reinforcing the demographic case for sustained immigration.
Would higher targets affect Express Entry CRS cutoffs?
If the Federal High Skilled target rises above the current 111,000 for 2027–2028, IRCC would likely issue more invitations through Express Entry draws, which could push CRS cutoffs lower across general and category-based rounds. However, the October 16 reforms awarding additional points for high-wage occupations will simultaneously alter the competitive dynamics within the Express Entry pool, so the net effect on cutoff scores will depend on how the new point allocation shifts the overall ranking order.
Could temporary resident targets also increase under the new plan?
Neither Diab nor Carney specified whether the increase would apply to permanent residents, temporary residents, or both. The current plan targets 370,000 temporary resident arrivals for 2027 and 2028, with a stated goal of bringing the non-permanent resident share below 5% of the population by late 2027. Any reversal of that trajectory would face significant political scrutiny given the housing and services pressures that originally prompted the reductions.
Does Canada’s 6.5% unemployment rate weaken the case for more immigration?
Canada’s unemployment rate stood at 6.5% in September 2026 after the economy shed 68,300 jobs, with youth unemployment near 13%. Critics argue that expanding immigration during a period of weak domestic job creation risks intensifying labour market competition, particularly for younger Canadians already struggling to find employment. Supporters counter that the shortages in healthcare, construction, and trades are structural rather than cyclical, and that an aging workforce makes long-term growth dependent on newcomers regardless of short-term employment fluctuations.
Fact-Checked: All immigration targets cited in this article were verified against the official 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan on Canada.ca, the IRCC levels plan overview page, and the CIMM March 2026 briefing materials. Population and demographic data were verified against Statistics Canada’s population estimates for Q2 2026, released September 23, 2026.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or immigration advice. Readers should consult a Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant (RCIC) or qualified immigration lawyer, or review the official IRCC website, before making decisions based on the information presented.
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