Last Updated On 30 October 2025, 4:29 PM EDT (Toronto Time)
Canada’s immigration levels plan is one of the most watched announcements every year in November 2025, shaping the future of the country’s population growth, labour market, and demographic balance.
Nationwide consultations on the next multi-year immigration levels plan are complete, and Canadians are waiting for Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) to reveal its 2026–2028 immigration plan by November 2025.
The discussion around Canada’s immigration targets is not only about raw numbers—it’s about politics, provincial demands, economic realities, and how Canada balances permanent and temporary immigration.
Table of Contents
🇨🇦 Canada’s Current Immigration Targets for 2025
In November 2024, the federal government announced the 2024–2026 Immigration Levels Plan, which set the 2025 target for permanent residents at 395,000.
However, on request from various provinces, the federal government granted extra Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) allocations to some provinces, pushing the adjusted 2025 target total to 401,418.
Here is the breakdown of those additional allocations:
- British Columbia: +1,254 PR spots
- Alberta: +1,528 PR spots
- Saskatchewan: +1,136 PR spots
- Newfoundland and Labrador: +1,000 PR spots
- New Brunswick: +1,500 PR spots
Thus, while the base is 395,000, the effective adjusted number becomes 401,418. Within that:
- Francophone immigration outside Quebec is set at 8.5%, which equals 29,325 spots.
- The remainder is divided across economic, family, humanitarian, and other classes, according to the plan’s proportions.
These numbers matter deeply. Immigration levels influence provincial workforce projections, municipal planning for housing and infrastructure, and national debates on integration and social services.
⚖️ The Political Play Behind the Numbers
Immigration is never just a technocratic issue—it is a political battleground.
The Liberal government has tried to thread a fine needle: respond to public concerns about housing, healthcare, and infrastructure strain, while also maintaining enough inflow to support economic growth.
In 2024, the government revised downward previously more ambitious targets (which had been as high as 500,000 annually), choosing a more moderate posture.
By doing so, they signalled willingness to temper growth, but without shutting off immigration as a growth engine.
A central element of the political strategy was to recalibrate the balance between federal and provincial responsibility.
The government reduced the direct federal role in selecting nominees and scaled back provincial allocations substantially—thereby pushing provinces to publicly make their case if they wanted more spots.
Opposition leaders, including the Conservatives, have seized on public concerns about housing and services to criticize liberal immigration levels.
Thus, immigration remains a sensitive, high-stakes issue in federal politics.
📉 Cuts to Business, Family, and Atlantic Streams
Although permanent resident levels are being adjusted upward provincially, other streams have seen contraction under the 2025 plan compared to earlier ambitions.
These cuts reflect shifting priorities and balancing choices.
- Business immigration: The federal business/entrepreneur stream is reduced—the target drops from prior higher levels down to around 2,000.
- Family class sponsorship: The allocation is cut from earlier levels like 118,000 down to 94,500 (so that it remains ~22% of total PR intake).
- Atlantic Immigration Program (AIP): The quota is curtailed—from about 8,500 previously to roughly 5,000 for 2025—despite the Atlantic region’s need for population growth and workforce infusion.
These reductions reflect a deliberate tilt toward the economic class of immigration, at the expense of entrepreneur, family, and regional-special programs.
🏛️ Consultations on the 2026–2028 Immigration Plan
From July 21 to August 17, 2025, IRCC conducted public consultations for its 2026–2028 levels plan.
As of late September 2025, those consultations are officially over, and the government is deliberating responses and final numbers for its November announcement.
Who participated?
- Provincial and territorial governments, via intergovernmental immigration tables
- Labor market stakeholders and employers facing skilled-labour shortages
- Settlement and immigrant-serving organizations
- Ordinary Canadians, via surveys and public submissions
Key themes and issues raised
- Provincial control: Many provinces requested stronger roles or larger allocations to manage immigration tailored to regional economic needs.
- Housing and infrastructure capacity: Many participants emphasized that immigration must be aligned with the practical ability of cities and regions to absorb newcomers—housing supply, transit, health services, schools, etc.
- Temporary-to-permanent pathways: A consistent demand was better clarity and smoother transitions for international students and temporary foreign workers seeking permanent status.
- Franco-Canada balance: Several submissions highlighted the need to strengthen Francophone immigration outside Quebec, aligning with the government’s goal to reach 12% Francophone newcomers by 2029.
These consultations will serve as a key input in the government’s decision-making in November 2025.
🌍 Why Provinces Are Demanding More
Provinces have compelling reasons to push for more immigration allocation.
Labor market alignment
Different provinces have different labour demands.
For example, Alberta needs trades workers and energy-sector professionals; Saskatchewan has agricultural and resource-sector gaps.
Atlantic provinces are wrestling with population decline and need new arrivals to sustain growth.
Ontario and B.C. have chronic shortages in healthcare, technology, and infrastructure roles.
The federal allocation process often fails to reflect this heterogeneity. Provinces argue they should have greater say in distributing PR slots to better match their labour and demographic realities.
Political accountability and visibility
By demanding more allocation, provincial governments position themselves in the public eye.
If they succeed, they can claim credit for bringing new jobs, senior care, and service support to their jurisdictions. If they fail, they can argue Ottawa is not responsive.
Integration and settlement
Smaller provinces often argue that they can integrate newcomers more effectively in smaller communities, reduce urban congestion, and ensure better retention.
They contend that more autonomy in selection would lead to better matching and outcomes.
Hence, provinces have strong incentives to push for more control and more allocations in the upcoming level plan.
📅 Looking Ahead: Immigration Targets for 2026
Under the 2024–2026 plan, the base target for 2026 permanent residents was set at 380,000.
However, with provincial requests and additional PNP allocations, the adjusted figure is expected to rise to 386,418.
But that may not be the ceiling. Given Canada’s population of 41,695,871 (as of September 29, 2025), a 1% immigration rate would imply 416,958 new permanent residents in 2026.
That number remains a benchmark often cited in policy circles.
Thus, while the official adjusted target may be 386,418 (with new PNP allocations), we expect the final announced number to gravitate closer to 410,000–415,000, if not more.
Within that total, the Francophone immigration outside Quebec target is scheduled to increase to 9.5%, which is 31,350 PRs from Francophone minority communities
📌 Why an Increase in Immigration Targets Is Expected
Despite downward pressure and public concern, several strong arguments point to a likely increase in immigration levels:
- Demographic necessity
Canada’s fertility rate is well below the replacement rate, and natural population growth is weak. Immigration is indispensable to maintain population momentum, labour supply, and economic vitality. - Aging population and dependency ratios
As more Canadians retire, there must be enough younger workers and immigrants to sustain pension systems, healthcare, and social services. - Labor shortages across sectors
Healthcare, skilled trades, construction, technology, and agriculture are all facing acute worker shortages. Without increased inflows, economic growth risks stalling. - Provincial pressure and political coalitions
Provinces already secured additional allocations for 2025. Many are unlikely to accept flat or reduced numbers for 2026. Politically, it may be safer for Ottawa to raise numbers rather than stoke backlash. - Franco-Canada commitments
The government has committed to boosting Francophone immigration outside Quebec to 12% by 2029. Achieving that will require stepping up numbers in upcoming years. - Temporary backlogs and unrealized demand
There is unmet demand among temporary residents, students, and foreign workers seeking to transition to permanent status. More allocations help relieve those pressure points.
Given all this, a conservative target of 385,164 is likely just a floor. The actual number may well exceed 410,000 in the November 2025 announcement.
📅 Timeline of Current Immigration Targets
To give context to where Canada came from and where it may go, here is a corrected timeline:
| Year | Base/Announced Target | Adjusted or Expected Target | Francophone Share (outside Quebec) | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 485,000 | 485,000 | ~26,100 | High-growth baseline year |
| 2025 | 395,000 | 401,418 | 29,325 (8.5%) | Provincial boosts applied |
| 2026 | 380,000 | ~386,418 (but possibly 410,000+) | 31,350 (9.5%) | Likely upward revision |
| 2027 | 365,000 | TBD (possibly >400,000) | 31,500 (10%) | Subject to new plan announcement |
This timeline reflects both the base government plans and the real-world adjustments and expectations reflecting provincial pressure and demographic logic.
🎓 What About Temporary Immigration Targets?
No discussion of Canadian immigration is complete without including temporary residents—international students, temporary foreign workers (TFWs), and others.
Starting in 2024–2025, the federal government began setting explicit targets for new temporary residents (students and workers), integrating them more tightly into overall migration planning.
Temporary Targets
- 2025: 673,650 new temporary residents (work + study)
- 2026: 516,600
- 2027: 543,600
Of those, international students make up a large share (e.g. ~45% in 2025, increasing to ~59% in 2026 and ~56% in 2027), with the remainder consisting of temporary workers under the International Mobility Program (IMP) and Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) Program.
The government’s objective is to bring the total stock of non-permanent residents (NPRs) down to less than 5% of Canada’s population by 2027.
Pressures and Critiques
- Many post-secondary institutions—especially private colleges—are already suffering financial stress because of lowered student quotas. Examples cited include Humber and Conestoga, which saw dramatic enrollment drops.
- There are reports that Canada loses nearly $10 billion annually in revenue due to reduced international student intake.
- Protests from faculty, staff, and immigrant communities continue, calling for more flexibility in student and temporary worker admissions.
Given the strain, we expect current caps to continue on international students, but some reduction in the temporary foreign worker program in the 2026 plan to accommodate both institutional sustainability and labour market demands.
💡 What to Expect in November 2025
With November 2025 approaching, IRCC will unveil the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan.
Based on the data, lobbying, and consultations, here’s a forecast of likely outcomes:
- The base permanent resident target for 2026 will not stay at the original 380,000—it will be increased to ~386,418, but possibly closer to 410,000–415,000.
- Francophone immigration outside Quebec will continue its upward trajectory, reaching 9.5% in 2026, moving toward the 12% goal by 2029.
- The share of allocations to provincial nominee programs (PNPs) will increase, giving provinces more influence over newcomer selection.
- National allocations for business, family, and Atlantic streams may be trimmed further to accommodate stronger economic and provincial quotas.
- Temporary immigration reforms will likely be part of the package—more flexible student quotas, stronger pathways from temporary to permanent residency, and perhaps caps or adjustments on downside to TFW streams.
In sum: Canada is highly unlikely to reduce immigration.
Instead, the November 2025 announcement will likely raise the floor, shift the mix, and offer new flexibilities, balancing public concerns with economic and demographic imperatives.
The exact figures are yet to be revealed, but the direction is becoming clear: higher, smarter, more regionally responsive immigration, with Ottawa and the provinces sharing responsibility in a more dynamic plan.
Something went wrong. Please refresh the page and/or try again.
You may also like: New CPP Payments To Be Sent Canada-Wide On December 22
New Canada Working Holiday Visa 2026 Season Is Now Open
New Canada Child Benefit Increase Coming In 2026
New Minimum Wage In Canada and 5 Provinces Coming In 2026