Canada Braces For Illegal Migrant Surge In 2026 As Millions Of Permits Expire

Last Updated On 5 January 2026, 10:17 AM EST (Toronto Time)

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As Canada tightens temporary-resident intake and moves into a higher-volume period of expiring permits, a single question is driving national debate:

How many people will actually leave when their status ends, and how many will remain in Canada without authorization?

Parliamentary records show the scale of expiry pressure that policymakers are grappling with.

In House committee testimony, an MP cited departmental documents indicating 4.9 million visas expiring between September 2024 and December 2025, and pressed Immigration Minister on how the government would know how many visa holders “wind up leaving.”

The answer was not a single number.

Instead, it was a description of expectations (most comply), tools (monitoring and enforcement), and constraints (large volumes).

That uncertainty is at the heart of the “undocumented” concern: if even a small fraction of a very large expiring cohort does not transition to a new legal status or depart, the number of people without authorization can rise quickly.

This article breaks down what the latest reputable data actually supports—and what it doesn’t—about expiring permits, undocumented presence, removals, and what 2026 could bring.

The 4.9 million expiring “visas” number: what it is—and what it is not

The “4.9 million” figure refers to visas and immigration documents expiring by the end of December 2025, not 4.9 million distinct people.

Ministers stressed two important qualifiers in Parliament:

The count includes a wide range of document types, from tourist-related entries to temporary work authorizations, including niche categories like visiting performers.
One person can hold multiple documents, so “documents” do not map one-to-one to “people.”

Those caveats are valid. They also do not eliminate the enforcement and integrity issue, because Canada’s temporary resident population is large enough that even a small non-compliance rate can translate into significant absolute numbers.

The more precise way to interpret the “4.9 million expiring documents” debate is this:

It is a forward-looking administrative workload and integrity risk indicator.
It is not a verified measure of how many people will overstay.
Without comprehensive exit tracking and status reconciliation, it becomes an argument about probabilities rather than a count of outcomes.

That is why the 2024 testimony that “the vast majority leave voluntarily” and “that’s what’s expected” did not resolve the controversy. It expressed the policy expectation, not an auditable result.

Canada’s exit-data gap: why Ottawa can’t give a clean answer

When pressed on how many temporary residents leave at the end of their authorized stay, federal officials have repeatedly pointed to a practical limitation:

Canada does not maintain a complete, person-level public accounting that reconciles expiries with verified exits.

In committee testimony, Minister Marc Miller was asked directly how many of a large cohort of expiring work permits and visas had actually left.

His answer was candid: “We don’t have that number.”

This matters because “expiry” is not the same thing as “illegal presence.” A person with an expiring document may be in one of several situations:

They depart Canada (compliance outcome).
They extend their status or shift to another temporary status (compliance outcome).
They transition to permanent residency (compliance outcome).
They file an in-Canada application that may allow them to remain while it is processed, depending on category and rules (often compliance outcome).
They do none of the above and remain without authorization (non-compliance outcome).
They become removable but are not immediately removed (enforcement gap outcome).

Public debate tends to collapse these into a single bucket. Policy design cannot afford that shortcut.

The practical integrity problem is not that Canada has “no data at all,” but that the system does not reliably convert the data it has into an authoritative, timely answer to the most politically charged question: of those whose status ended, who is still here and under what authority?

How many undocumented migrants are in Canada?

Estimating the number of undocumented migrants in Canada—individuals residing in the country without valid immigration status, such as visa overstayers, rejected asylum seekers, or those who entered irregularly—remains challenging due to the inherent difficulty in tracking such populations.

Official figures are often imprecise, and estimates vary widely based on methodologies, data sources, and recent policy shifts.

As of early 2026, there are no definitive government statistics, but a range of estimates from official, media, and expert sources provide context.

Below is an overview grounded in the most recent available data and projections.

Official and Historical Estimates

Government Estimates (2024-2025): According to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), estimates suggest there could be as many as 500,000 undocumented migrants living in Canada.
- This figure, referenced in a November 2024 briefing to the Standing Committee on Citizenship and Immigration (CIMM), highlights the vulnerabilities these individuals face, including barriers to services and exploitation.
- A 2024 Department of Finance briefing similarly cited up to 500,000 undocumented residents, though it noted the evidence is “poor and possibly unreliable.”
- Former Immigration Minister Marc Miller had previously estimated up to 600,000 in 2024, emphasizing that “nobody really knows” the exact number due to limited tracking.
Earlier Context: A Wikipedia summary of immigration trends notes an estimated 600,000 undocumented migrants present in 2024, with reports that Canada had “lost track” of as many as 41,000 illegal immigrants in prior years.
- These figures align with broader analyses, such as those from the Council on Foreign Relations, which discuss Canada’s rapid immigration growth but do not provide updated counts beyond policy overviews.

Recent Projections and Surge Factors (2025-2026)

Recent policy changes, including reductions in temporary resident admissions and stricter rules on work and study permits, have led to projections of a sharp increase in undocumented residents.

As millions of permits expire without renewal pathways, many individuals may transition to undocumented status.

Total Projections: By mid-2026, Canada could see up to 2 million undocumented immigrants overall, driven by over 1 million work permit expiries in 2025 and an additional 927,000 in 2026.
- The first quarter of 2026 alone is expected to see nearly 315,000 expiries, creating a “bottleneck” in the system. Other factors include expiring study permits and denied asylum claims, exacerbating the issue.
Demographic Breakdown: A significant portion of this surge is projected to involve Indian nationals, with estimates of up to 1 million undocumented Indian immigrants by mid-2026—potentially half of the total undocumented population.
- This is based on IRCC data showing high numbers of Indian temporary residents whose permits are expiring amid narrowed pathways to permanent residency.
- Broader estimates from immigration consultancies suggest the total undocumented population ranges from 600,000 to over 1 million as of mid-2025.
Geographic Distribution: Undocumented migrants are concentrated in major urban centers.
- For instance, Toronto is estimated to host nearly 50% of Canada’s undocumented population, potentially up to 300,000 individuals based on 2025 figures.
- Other top cities include Vancouver, Montreal, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa-Gatineau, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, and London, though specific breakdowns beyond Toronto are not numerically detailed in available sources.

The expiring-permits debate is essentially a debate about which direction that uncertainty band is moving—and whether 2025’s permit expiries could push it upward.

However, one thing is clear: those numbers might have now increased exponentially given the recent expired visas at the end of 2025 and more to follow in 2026.

Enforcement reality: removals are rising, but scale is the constraint

Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) enforcement statistics show a steady upward movement in “enforced removals,” a category that includes deportations and related enforcement outcomes.

CBSA’s published removal statistics (year-to-date through October 31, 2025) show:

18,785 enforced removals in 2025 (to date as of Oct. 31),
compared with 17,357 in 2024 and 15,207 in 2023.

Those are meaningful increases, and they reinforce the government’s claim that enforcement activity is intensifying, but the backlogged removals are over 50,000.

They also demonstrate the constraint highlighted by critics: even record removals are small relative to the size of the temporary resident population and the volume of expiring documents.

To illustrate the scale mismatch without making assumptions about exact overstay rates:

Canada had 2,847,737 non-permanent residents as of October 1, 2025.
CBSA’s enforced removals were 18,785 year-to-date through October 31, 2025.

Even if removals continue rising, enforcement alone cannot be the primary mechanism for managing a very large compliance problem.

Any serious strategy must rely more heavily on:

preventing people from falling out of status in the first place,
creating workable transition pathways for those Canada wants to retain,
better detecting non-compliance earlier,
and improving reconciled exit/status data so enforcement resources are directed efficiently.

What can policymakers do in 2026?

If Ottawa wants to reduce the undocumented risk created by mass expiries, it has four strategic levers—none of which can be replaced by removals alone.

1) Better reconciled exit and status data

Ministers have acknowledged gaps in the ability to say who left.

Closing that gap requires more than a general “entry/exit” concept; it requires a public reporting framework that reconciles:

expiring permits,
extensions/renewals,
transitions to other statuses (including PR),
confirmed exits,
and enforcement actions.

Without reconciliation, debate will keep substituting rhetoric for measurement.

2) Earlier compliance detection in high-risk streams

The “potentially non-compliant students” figure shows the reputational damage caused by late detection.

Earlier verification (enrolment confirmation, school compliance audits, faster information-sharing) reduces the number of people who can drift out of status unnoticed.

3) Credible transition pathways for those Canada wants to retain

When renewal pathways tighten broadly, Canada still needs a clear lane for the segments it wants to keep: workers in priority occupations, graduates with labour market attachment, and people with strong compliance histories.

If pathways are too narrow or processing is too slow, the system can inadvertently incentivize non-compliance at the margin—especially among people who have built their lives in Canada and fear abrupt loss of status.

Work permit extension pathways need to be created for such temporary residents that Canada needs the most.

4) Targeted enforcement that prioritizes risk

CBSA removals are rising, but resources are finite.

Enforcement works best when it is intelligence-led and focused on high-risk cases, fraud networks, and repeat non-compliance—not used as a blunt tool to compensate for weak tracking.

What temporary residents in Canada should do to avoid falling out of status

This is not legal advice, but the practical steps are straightforward:

Track expiry dates early and build time buffers.
Apply for extensions or status changes well before expiry when eligible.
Keep documentation proving you complied with permit conditions (work authorization, school enrolment, address updates where required).
If your situation is complex—especially involving a refused application, expired status, or overlapping processes—get advice from a qualified, licensed immigration professional.

The single biggest integrity risk for individuals is waiting until after expiry and assuming the system will “sort itself out.”

In a tightening environment, delays create cascading problems.

Canada’s expiring-permit wave is real, and the numbers cited in Parliament underscore its magnitude.

What the latest data supports today is a high-risk environment for undocumented growth: large expiry volumes, identified non-compliance pockets, and removals rising but still small relative to the size of the expiring cohort.

Frequently asked questions

Does Canada automatically track when temporary residents leave after their permits expire?

No, Canada does not maintain a comprehensive public system that confirms, on an individual basis, whether a foreign national has left the country after their permit or visa expires. While the government tracks entries and uses administrative data to estimate population changes, there is no real-time, person-level exit confirmation for all temporary residents. This is why officials rely heavily on voluntary compliance.

What does “out of status” actually mean in Canada?

Being “out of status” means you no longer have legal authorization to remain in Canada as a visitor, student, or worker. This can happen if your permit expires and you do not apply for an extension in time, if your application is refused and no other legal status applies, or if you violate the conditions of your permit. Being out of status is different from having an expired visa and can lead to enforcement action.

Why are expiring permits a bigger issue in 2025 and 2026 than before?

Because Canada experienced an unprecedented surge in temporary residents after COVID-19, and the government is now actively reducing intake and tightening renewals. This means more people are reaching expiry dates at a time when fewer pathways exist to extend or transition to another status. Even normal delays or missed deadlines can now result in loss of status more quickly than in previous years.

What happens if my visa expires but my permit is still valid in Canada?

A visa and a permit serve different purposes. A visa (or eTA) is only an entry document that allows you to travel to Canada. Your legal right to stay in Canada is determined by your status document, such as a study permit, work permit, or visitor record. If your visa expires but your permit is still valid, you remain legally in Canada but cannot re-enter if you leave unless you obtain a new visa.

Can I stay in Canada while my permit extension is being processed?

Yes, but only if you apply before your current status expires and you are eligible to do so. In that case, you may remain in Canada under the same conditions until a decision is made. If you apply after your permit expires, you may still be allowed to remain temporarily while a restoration request is processed, but you must stop working or studying immediately until status is formally restored.

If removals are increasing, doesn’t that solve the problem?

Rising removals help, but the scale is limited relative to the size of Canada’s temporary resident population. Long-term management depends more on compliance prevention, better tracking, and workable legal pathways.

Kamal Deep Singh, RCIC

Kamal Deep Singh, RCIC (Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant) licensed by CICC (formerly known as ICCRC) with member number R708618. He brings extensive knowledge of immigration law and new changes to rapidly evolving IRCC.