Canada Immigration Absorption Index estimating the annual permanent resident level Canada, each province, and major census metropolitan areas may be able to absorb under current macroeconomic conditions after accounting for system strain, newcomer contribution, and the latest monthly labour momentum.
Last updated: May 8, 2026Annual PR level Canada can absorb under current conditions after applying the April 2026 labour-market update.
Subset of the total threshold data.
Federal target of 380,000 is about 1.60 times the current stabilizing threshold.
The monthly labour-momentum adjustment is applied after the baseline model so that a higher unemployment rate directly reduces the current-month threshold and a lower unemployment rate increases it. Formula: Monthly Labour Momentum Factor = 1 - (unemployment MoM change × 0.035), bounded between 0.85 and 1.15.
Includes total PR and TR-to-PR thresholds, MoM change, ranges, per-1,000 rate, scores, unemployment inputs, pressure drivers, and positive contributors.
| Rank | Province | Threshold | MoM Change | MoM % | Low Range | High Range | Per 1,000 | Macro Score | Contribution Score | Final Score | April Unemployment | Unemployment MoM | Primary Pressure Driver | Main Positive Contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Canada National | 237,409 | -2,462 | -1.03% | 212,782 | 262,036 | 5.84 | 72 | 70 | 71 | 6.9% | +0.2 pp | National weighted average | Working-age and labour-market contribution |
| 1 | Ontario | 93,206 | +577 | +0.62% | 83,885 | 102,527 | 5.90 | 71 | 74 | 72 | 7.5% | -0.1 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Immigrant retention |
| 2 | Quebec | 50,230 | -1,722 | -3.32% | 45,207 | 55,253 | 5.64 | 73 | 67 | 72 | 6.2% | +0.8 pp | Wage weakness | Working-age newcomers |
| 3 | British Columbia | 34,174 | -211 | -0.61% | 30,757 | 37,592 | 6.10 | 74 | 70 | 73 | 6.8% | +0.1 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Immigrant retention |
| 4 | Alberta | 33,738 | -1,042 | -3.00% | 30,364 | 37,112 | 6.69 | 78 | 72 | 77 | 7.0% | +0.5 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Working-age newcomers |
| 5 | Manitoba | 7,663 | +158 | +2.10% | 6,897 | 8,429 | 5.21 | 68 | 60 | 66 | 5.0% | -0.6 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Working-age newcomers |
| 6 | Saskatchewan | 7,563 | -162 | -2.10% | 6,807 | 8,319 | 6.10 | 78 | 58 | 73 | 5.6% | +0.6 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Working-age newcomers |
| 7 | Nova Scotia | 4,208 | +44 | +1.05% | 3,366 | 5,049 | 3.93 | 39 | 58 | 44 | 6.3% | -0.3 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Working-age newcomers |
| 8 | New Brunswick | 3,944 | -51 | -1.27% | 3,352 | 4,535 | 4.70 | 64 | 54 | 61 | 7.2% | +0.2 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Working-age newcomers |
| 9 | Newfoundland and Labrador | 2,098 | -37 | -1.75% | 1,679 | 2,518 | 3.89 | 39 | 48 | 41 | 10.0% | +0.5 pp | Labour market strain | Working-age newcomers |
| 10 | Prince Edward Island | 585 | -15 | -2.45% | 468 | 702 | 3.34 | 39 | 46 | 41 | 8.0% | +0.7 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Working-age newcomers |
| — | Canada National | 143,515 | -1,477 | -1.02% | 128,721 | 158,309 | 3.53 | 72 | 70 | 71 | 6.9% | +0.2 pp | National weighted average | Working-age and labour-market contribution |
| 1 | Ontario | 57,788 | +358 | +0.62% | 52,009 | 63,566 | 3.66 | 71 | 74 | 72 | 7.5% | -0.1 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Immigrant retention |
| 2 | Quebec | 30,138 | -1,033 | -3.32% | 27,124 | 33,152 | 3.39 | 73 | 67 | 72 | 6.2% | +0.8 pp | Wage weakness | Working-age newcomers |
| 3 | British Columbia | 21,188 | -131 | -0.61% | 19,069 | 23,307 | 3.78 | 74 | 70 | 73 | 6.8% | +0.1 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Immigrant retention |
| 4 | Alberta | 20,918 | -646 | -3.00% | 18,826 | 23,009 | 4.15 | 78 | 72 | 77 | 7.0% | +0.5 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Working-age newcomers |
| 5 | Manitoba | 4,157 | +86 | +2.10% | 3,741 | 4,573 | 2.83 | 68 | 60 | 66 | 5.0% | -0.6 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Working-age newcomers |
| 6 | Saskatchewan | 3,918 | -84 | -2.10% | 3,526 | 4,309 | 3.16 | 78 | 58 | 73 | 5.6% | +0.6 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Working-age newcomers |
| 7 | Nova Scotia | 2,232 | +23 | +1.05% | 1,786 | 2,679 | 2.09 | 39 | 58 | 44 | 6.3% | -0.3 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Working-age newcomers |
| 8 | New Brunswick | 1,972 | -25 | -1.27% | 1,676 | 2,268 | 2.35 | 64 | 54 | 61 | 7.2% | +0.2 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Working-age newcomers |
| 9 | Newfoundland and Labrador | 955 | -17 | -1.75% | 764 | 1,146 | 1.77 | 39 | 48 | 41 | 10.0% | +0.5 pp | Labour market strain | Working-age newcomers |
| 10 | Prince Edward Island | 250 | -6 | -2.45% | 200 | 300 | 1.43 | 39 | 46 | 41 | 8.0% | +0.7 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Working-age newcomers |
Includes all 41 CMAs with total PR and TR-to-PR thresholds, MoM change, local score components, unemployment inputs, pressure driver, and data confidence.
| Rank | CMA | Province | Threshold | MoM Change | MoM % | Low Range | High Range | Per 1,000 | Local Score | Contribution Signal | Labour | Housing | Affordability | Population | April Unemployment | Unemployment MoM | Primary Pressure Driver | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toronto | Ontario | 29,120 | -125 | -0.43% | 24,752 | 33,488 | 4.76 | 64 | High contribution signal | 57 | 64 | 91 | 65 | 8.2% | +0.1 pp | Healthcare/service strain | High |
| 2 | Montréal | Quebec | 17,213 | -1,588 | -8.45% | 14,631 | 19,795 | 4.46 | 64 | Moderate contribution signal | 81 | 70 | 68 | 65 | 7.1% | +0.5 pp | Wage weakness | High |
| 3 | Vancouver | British Columbia | 14,823 | -294 | -1.94% | 13,341 | 16,305 | 5.50 | 77 | Moderate contribution signal | 89 | 80 | 81 | 62 | 6.5% | +0.3 pp | Healthcare/service strain | High |
| 4 | Ottawa–Gatineau | Ontario | 7,629 | -33 | -0.43% | 6,866 | 8,392 | 5.40 | 78 | Moderate contribution signal | 90 | 72 | 91 | 66 | 6.3% | +0.1 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 5 | Calgary | Alberta | 7,304 | +15 | +0.21% | 6,209 | 8,400 | 4.69 | 49 | Moderate contribution signal | 82 | 86 | 84 | 83 | 6.7% | 0.0 pp | Healthcare/service strain | High |
| 6 | Edmonton | Alberta | 5,873 | -410 | -6.53% | 4,698 | 7,047 | 4.25 | 44 | Moderate contribution signal | 75 | 84 | 84 | 82 | 7.1% | +0.6 pp | Healthcare/service strain | High |
| 7 | Québec | Quebec | 4,096 | -105 | -2.50% | 3,687 | 4,506 | 5.42 | 78 | Moderate contribution signal | 100 | 80 | 68 | 65 | 3.3% | +0.7 pp | Wage weakness | Moderate |
| 8 | Hamilton | Ontario | 3,615 | -44 | -1.20% | 3,254 | 3,977 | 4.96 | 70 | Moderate contribution signal | 83 | 50 | 91 | 66 | 6.7% | +0.2 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 9 | Winnipeg | Manitoba | 3,582 | +39 | +1.10% | 3,224 | 3,940 | 4.43 | 68 | Moderate contribution signal | 95 | 62 | 64 | 62 | 5.9% | -0.2 pp | Healthcare/service strain | High |
| 10 | Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo | Ontario | 2,818 | -41 | -1.45% | 2,396 | 3,241 | 4.70 | 64 | Moderate contribution signal | 43 | 62 | 91 | 66 | 9.0% | +0.4 pp | Labour market strain | Moderate |
| 11 | London | Ontario | 2,520 | -15 | -0.60% | 2,142 | 2,898 | 4.67 | 62 | Moderate contribution signal | 39 | 54 | 91 | 66 | 9.2% | +0.1 pp | Labour market strain | Moderate |
| 12 | Windsor | Ontario | 1,972 | +29 | +1.50% | 1,677 | 2,268 | 4.83 | 64 | Moderate contribution signal | 59 | 62 | 91 | 66 | 8.1% | -0.4 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 13 | Victoria | British Columbia | 1,951 | +20 | +1.05% | 1,756 | 2,146 | 5.13 | 75 | Moderate contribution signal | 97 | 66 | 81 | 62 | 4.3% | -0.3 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 14 | St. Catharines–Niagara | Ontario | 1,812 | +35 | +1.96% | 1,541 | 2,084 | 4.23 | 49 | Moderate contribution signal | 95 | 44 | 91 | 66 | 6.0% | -0.5 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 15 | Saskatoon | Saskatchewan | 1,675 | -20 | -1.18% | 1,508 | 1,843 | 5.34 | 79 | Low contribution signal | 96 | 86 | 70 | 71 | 5.6% | +0.4 pp | Healthcare/service strain | High |
| 16 | Halifax | Nova Scotia | 1,615 | +8 | +0.50% | 1,292 | 1,938 | 3.50 | 44 | Low contribution signal | 96 | 56 | 60 | 69 | 6.0% | -0.1 pp | Healthcare/service strain | High |
| 17 | Oshawa | Ontario | 1,583 | -30 | -1.88% | 1,266 | 1,899 | 3.87 | 44 | Moderate contribution signal | 52 | 42 | 91 | 66 | 8.5% | +0.6 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 18 | Regina | Saskatchewan | 1,253 | +12 | +0.96% | 1,128 | 1,379 | 5.29 | 78 | Low contribution signal | 96 | 84 | 70 | 71 | 5.8% | -0.2 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 19 | Sherbrooke | Quebec | 1,106 | -4 | -0.35% | 996 | 1,217 | 5.30 | 75 | Moderate contribution signal | 100 | 72 | 68 | 65 | 4.4% | +0.1 pp | Wage weakness | Moderate |
| 20 | Kelowna | British Columbia | 924 | -56 | -5.71% | 785 | 1,063 | 4.38 | 61 | Moderate contribution signal | 62 | 44 | 81 | 62 | 8.0% | +1.0 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 21 | Greater Sudbury | Ontario | 870 | -2 | -0.23% | 783 | 957 | 5.30 | 78 | Moderate contribution signal | 95 | 68 | 91 | 66 | 6.0% | +0.1 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 22 | Kingston | Ontario | 840 | +5 | +0.63% | 756 | 924 | 5.19 | 74 | Moderate contribution signal | 95 | 56 | 91 | 66 | 6.0% | -0.1 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 23 | Saguenay | Quebec | 826 | -3 | -0.42% | 743 | 909 | 5.74 | 79 | Moderate contribution signal | 100 | 84 | 68 | 65 | 3.3% | +0.1 pp | Wage weakness | Moderate |
| 24 | Barrie | Ontario | 812 | -19 | -2.31% | 649 | 974 | 3.85 | 44 | Moderate contribution signal | 39 | 38 | 91 | 66 | 9.2% | +0.7 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 25 | Trois-Rivières | Quebec | 804 | -9 | -1.05% | 724 | 885 | 5.45 | 76 | Moderate contribution signal | 100 | 76 | 68 | 65 | 4.8% | +0.3 pp | Wage weakness | Moderate |
| 26 | St. John's | Newfoundland and Labrador | 779 | +4 | +0.49% | 662 | 896 | 3.74 | 49 | Low contribution signal | 80 | 82 | 77 | 52 | 6.7% | -0.1 pp | Healthcare/service strain | High |
| 27 | Abbotsford–Mission | British Columbia | 682 | -19 | -2.69% | 546 | 818 | 3.74 | 44 | Moderate contribution signal | 89 | 36 | 81 | 62 | 6.5% | +0.8 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 28 | Guelph | Ontario | 651 | -7 | -1.05% | 553 | 749 | 4.11 | 49 | Moderate contribution signal | 81 | 40 | 91 | 66 | 6.8% | +0.3 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 29 | Thunder Bay | Ontario | 614 | -2 | -0.26% | 553 | 675 | 5.51 | 80 | Moderate contribution signal | 95 | 76 | 91 | 66 | 5.5% | +0.1 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 30 | Brantford | Ontario | 608 | +13 | +2.17% | 516 | 699 | 4.24 | 49 | Moderate contribution signal | 95 | 40 | 91 | 66 | 5.7% | -0.6 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 31 | Lethbridge | Alberta | 561 | +7 | +1.22% | 477 | 645 | 4.73 | 49 | Moderate contribution signal | 95 | 86 | 84 | 82 | 5.7% | -0.3 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 32 | Moncton | New Brunswick | 546 | -39 | -6.73% | 437 | 655 | 3.30 | 44 | Low contribution signal | 69 | 52 | 74 | 69 | 7.4% | +0.6 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 33 | Peterborough | Ontario | 501 | -5 | -0.97% | 401 | 601 | 3.91 | 44 | Moderate contribution signal | 95 | 36 | 91 | 66 | 5.7% | +0.3 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 34 | Kamloops | British Columbia | 499 | -15 | -2.89% | 449 | 549 | 4.82 | 72 | Moderate contribution signal | 97 | 56 | 81 | 62 | 4.9% | +0.8 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 35 | Nanaimo | British Columbia | 483 | -26 | -5.07% | 411 | 556 | 4.36 | 60 | Moderate contribution signal | 50 | 48 | 81 | 62 | 8.7% | +0.8 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 36 | Belleville–Quinte West | Ontario | 466 | +43 | +10.04% | 396 | 536 | 4.34 | 49 | Moderate contribution signal | 85 | 42 | 91 | 66 | 6.6% | -1.3 pp | Housing shortage | Low |
| 37 | Saint John | New Brunswick | 426 | -3 | -0.62% | 362 | 490 | 3.52 | 49 | Low contribution signal | 94 | 54 | 74 | 69 | 5.4% | +0.2 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 38 | Red Deer | Alberta | 425 | +2 | +0.56% | 361 | 489 | 4.46 | 49 | Moderate contribution signal | 91 | 82 | 84 | 82 | 6.2% | -0.1 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 39 | Drummondville | Quebec | 417 | -71 | -14.61% | 355 | 480 | 4.58 | 64 | Moderate contribution signal | 77 | 76 | 68 | 65 | 7.3% | +1.6 pp | Wage weakness | Low |
| 40 | Fredericton | New Brunswick | 378 | +6 | +1.50% | 321 | 434 | 3.60 | 49 | Low contribution signal | 94 | 60 | 74 | 69 | 5.7% | -0.4 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 41 | Chilliwack | British Columbia | 369 | -15 | -4.01% | 295 | 442 | 3.69 | 44 | Moderate contribution signal | 76 | 38 | 81 | 62 | 7.2% | +1.2 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 1 | Toronto | Ontario | 18,055 | -77 | -0.43% | 15,346 | 20,763 | 2.95 | 64 | High contribution signal | 57 | 64 | 91 | 65 | 8.2% | +0.1 pp | Healthcare/service strain | High |
| 2 | Montréal | Quebec | 10,406 | -960 | -8.45% | 8,845 | 11,966 | 2.70 | 64 | Moderate contribution signal | 81 | 70 | 68 | 65 | 7.1% | +0.5 pp | Wage weakness | High |
| 3 | Vancouver | British Columbia | 9,190 | -182 | -1.94% | 8,271 | 10,109 | 3.41 | 77 | Moderate contribution signal | 89 | 80 | 81 | 62 | 6.5% | +0.3 pp | Healthcare/service strain | High |
| 4 | Ottawa–Gatineau | Ontario | 4,730 | -20 | -0.43% | 4,257 | 5,203 | 3.35 | 78 | Moderate contribution signal | 90 | 72 | 91 | 66 | 6.3% | +0.1 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 5 | Calgary | Alberta | 4,529 | +9 | +0.21% | 3,849 | 5,208 | 2.91 | 49 | Moderate contribution signal | 82 | 86 | 84 | 83 | 6.7% | 0.0 pp | Healthcare/service strain | High |
| 6 | Edmonton | Alberta | 3,641 | -254 | -6.53% | 2,913 | 4,369 | 2.63 | 44 | Moderate contribution signal | 75 | 84 | 84 | 82 | 7.1% | +0.6 pp | Healthcare/service strain | High |
| 7 | Québec | Quebec | 2,458 | -63 | -2.50% | 2,212 | 2,704 | 3.25 | 78 | Moderate contribution signal | 100 | 80 | 68 | 65 | 3.3% | +0.7 pp | Wage weakness | Moderate |
| 8 | Hamilton | Ontario | 2,242 | -27 | -1.20% | 2,017 | 2,466 | 3.08 | 70 | Moderate contribution signal | 83 | 50 | 91 | 66 | 6.7% | +0.2 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 9 | Winnipeg | Manitoba | 1,943 | +21 | +1.10% | 1,749 | 2,138 | 2.40 | 68 | Moderate contribution signal | 95 | 62 | 64 | 62 | 5.9% | -0.2 pp | Healthcare/service strain | High |
| 10 | Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo | Ontario | 1,747 | -26 | -1.45% | 1,485 | 2,010 | 2.91 | 64 | Moderate contribution signal | 43 | 62 | 91 | 66 | 9.0% | +0.4 pp | Labour market strain | Moderate |
| 11 | London | Ontario | 1,563 | -9 | -0.60% | 1,328 | 1,797 | 2.90 | 62 | Moderate contribution signal | 39 | 54 | 91 | 66 | 9.2% | +0.1 pp | Labour market strain | Moderate |
| 12 | Windsor | Ontario | 1,223 | +18 | +1.50% | 1,039 | 1,406 | 3.00 | 64 | Moderate contribution signal | 59 | 62 | 91 | 66 | 8.1% | -0.4 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 13 | Victoria | British Columbia | 1,210 | +13 | +1.05% | 1,089 | 1,331 | 3.18 | 75 | Moderate contribution signal | 97 | 66 | 81 | 62 | 4.3% | -0.3 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 14 | St. Catharines–Niagara | Ontario | 1,124 | +22 | +1.96% | 955 | 1,292 | 2.62 | 49 | Moderate contribution signal | 95 | 44 | 91 | 66 | 6.0% | -0.5 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 15 | Oshawa | Ontario | 981 | -19 | -1.88% | 785 | 1,178 | 2.40 | 44 | Moderate contribution signal | 52 | 42 | 91 | 66 | 8.5% | +0.6 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 16 | Saskatoon | Saskatchewan | 868 | -10 | -1.18% | 781 | 954 | 2.77 | 79 | Low contribution signal | 96 | 86 | 70 | 71 | 5.6% | +0.4 pp | Healthcare/service strain | High |
| 17 | Halifax | Nova Scotia | 857 | +4 | +0.50% | 685 | 1,028 | 1.85 | 44 | Low contribution signal | 96 | 56 | 60 | 69 | 6.0% | -0.1 pp | Healthcare/service strain | High |
| 18 | Sherbrooke | Quebec | 664 | -2 | -0.35% | 597 | 730 | 3.18 | 75 | Moderate contribution signal | 100 | 72 | 68 | 65 | 4.4% | +0.1 pp | Wage weakness | Moderate |
| 19 | Regina | Saskatchewan | 649 | +6 | +0.96% | 584 | 714 | 2.74 | 78 | Low contribution signal | 96 | 84 | 70 | 71 | 5.8% | -0.2 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 20 | Kelowna | British Columbia | 573 | -35 | -5.71% | 487 | 659 | 2.71 | 61 | Moderate contribution signal | 62 | 44 | 81 | 62 | 8.0% | +1.0 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 21 | Greater Sudbury | Ontario | 539 | -1 | -0.23% | 485 | 593 | 3.29 | 78 | Moderate contribution signal | 95 | 68 | 91 | 66 | 6.0% | +0.1 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 22 | Kingston | Ontario | 521 | +3 | +0.63% | 468 | 573 | 3.22 | 74 | Moderate contribution signal | 95 | 56 | 91 | 66 | 6.0% | -0.1 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 23 | Barrie | Ontario | 503 | -12 | -2.31% | 403 | 604 | 2.39 | 44 | Moderate contribution signal | 39 | 38 | 91 | 66 | 9.2% | +0.7 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 24 | Saguenay | Quebec | 496 | -2 | -0.42% | 446 | 545 | 3.44 | 79 | Moderate contribution signal | 100 | 84 | 68 | 65 | 3.3% | +0.1 pp | Wage weakness | Moderate |
| 25 | Trois-Rivières | Quebec | 483 | -5 | -1.05% | 434 | 531 | 3.27 | 76 | Moderate contribution signal | 100 | 76 | 68 | 65 | 4.8% | +0.3 pp | Wage weakness | Moderate |
| 26 | Abbotsford–Mission | British Columbia | 423 | -12 | -2.69% | 338 | 507 | 2.32 | 44 | Moderate contribution signal | 89 | 36 | 81 | 62 | 6.5% | +0.8 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 27 | Guelph | Ontario | 404 | -4 | -1.05% | 343 | 464 | 2.55 | 49 | Moderate contribution signal | 81 | 40 | 91 | 66 | 6.8% | +0.3 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 28 | Thunder Bay | Ontario | 381 | -1 | -0.26% | 343 | 419 | 3.41 | 80 | Moderate contribution signal | 95 | 76 | 91 | 66 | 5.5% | +0.1 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 29 | Brantford | Ontario | 377 | +8 | +2.17% | 320 | 433 | 2.63 | 49 | Moderate contribution signal | 95 | 40 | 91 | 66 | 5.7% | -0.6 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 30 | St. John's | Newfoundland and Labrador | 354 | +2 | +0.49% | 301 | 408 | 1.70 | 49 | Low contribution signal | 80 | 82 | 77 | 52 | 6.7% | -0.1 pp | Healthcare/service strain | High |
| 31 | Lethbridge | Alberta | 348 | +4 | +1.22% | 296 | 400 | 2.93 | 49 | Moderate contribution signal | 95 | 86 | 84 | 82 | 5.7% | -0.3 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 32 | Peterborough | Ontario | 311 | -3 | -0.97% | 248 | 373 | 2.42 | 44 | Moderate contribution signal | 95 | 36 | 91 | 66 | 5.7% | +0.3 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 33 | Kamloops | British Columbia | 309 | -9 | -2.89% | 278 | 340 | 2.99 | 72 | Moderate contribution signal | 97 | 56 | 81 | 62 | 4.9% | +0.8 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 34 | Nanaimo | British Columbia | 300 | -16 | -5.07% | 255 | 345 | 2.70 | 60 | Moderate contribution signal | 50 | 48 | 81 | 62 | 8.7% | +0.8 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 35 | Belleville–Quinte West | Ontario | 289 | +26 | +10.04% | 246 | 332 | 2.69 | 49 | Moderate contribution signal | 85 | 42 | 91 | 66 | 6.6% | -1.3 pp | Housing shortage | Low |
| 36 | Moncton | New Brunswick | 273 | -20 | -6.73% | 218 | 328 | 1.65 | 44 | Low contribution signal | 69 | 52 | 74 | 69 | 7.4% | +0.6 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 37 | Red Deer | Alberta | 263 | +1 | +0.56% | 224 | 303 | 2.76 | 49 | Moderate contribution signal | 91 | 82 | 84 | 82 | 6.2% | -0.1 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 38 | Drummondville | Quebec | 250 | -43 | -14.61% | 213 | 288 | 2.75 | 64 | Moderate contribution signal | 77 | 76 | 68 | 65 | 7.3% | +1.6 pp | Wage weakness | Low |
| 39 | Chilliwack | British Columbia | 228 | -10 | -4.01% | 183 | 274 | 2.29 | 44 | Moderate contribution signal | 76 | 38 | 81 | 62 | 7.2% | +1.2 pp | Housing shortage | Moderate |
| 40 | Saint John | New Brunswick | 213 | -1 | -0.62% | 181 | 245 | 1.76 | 49 | Low contribution signal | 94 | 54 | 74 | 69 | 5.4% | +0.2 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
| 41 | Fredericton | New Brunswick | 189 | +3 | +1.50% | 160 | 217 | 1.80 | 49 | Low contribution signal | 94 | 60 | 74 | 69 | 5.7% | -0.4 pp | Healthcare/service strain | Moderate |
Annual PR level Canada can absorb under current conditions after accounting for both system strain and newcomer contributions.
Federal target divided by the stabilizing PR level. Above 1.0 means the target is higher than the stabilizing threshold.
Measures immigration’s net positive contribution by separating outside-Canada PR arrivals from TR-to-PR conversions, so existing temporary residents are not double counted as entirely new economic activity.
A current-month adjustment based on the latest Statistics Canada unemployment-rate movement. Rising unemployment lowers the current threshold; falling unemployment raises it.
Province Threshold = Population × Base PR Rate × Macro Capacity Factor × Newcomer Contribution Factor × Retention Factor × Housing Expansion Factor × Monthly Labour Momentum Factor
Province Macro Score = 20% Labour + 25% Housing + 20% Affordability + 15% Population + 10% Wages + 10% Services
CMA Local Score = 30% Housing + 25% Affordability + 20% Labour + 10% Services + 10% Population + 5% Wages, with hard caps for severe local strain
Monthly Labour Momentum Factor = 1 - (Unemployment MoM Change × 0.035), bounded between 0.85 and 1.15
TR-to-PR Share (%) = 25 + (Retention Rate × 0.25) + (Canadian Experience Share × 0.15) + (Labour Shortage Alignment × 0.10), capped between 25% and 62%
TR-to-PR Threshold = Overall Stabilizing PR Threshold × (TR-to-PR Share ÷ 100)
Planning Range = Threshold × parent uncertainty band: 90%–110% when score is 65+, 85%–115% when score is 45–64, and 80%–120% when score is below 45Statistics Canada Table 14-10-0287-01 and Statistics Canada Table 14-10-0459-01
Statistics Canada Table 17-10-0009-01 and CMA labour-force table population movement
IRCC 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan and StatCan Longitudinal Immigration Database
The model is an independent benchmark model, not an official government target, forecast, allocation, or policy recommendation. It does not distinguish between all permanent resident classes in the main threshold table and uses scoring formulas and planning ranges rather than statistical confidence intervals.
Suggested citation: Immigration News Canada. (2026). Canada Immigration Absorption Index: Full Detailed May 2026 Update. INC Data Lab. Retrieved from immigrationnewscanada.ca/canada-immigration-absorption-index/.